FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Episode 16: June 2012) - page 8
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I totally agree. Right now, speculators have more capital in their hands than the budgets of countries. So they manipulate the market as they please. But there always comes a time when the market calms down and the exchange rate matches the fundamentals.
I agree with that, but fractures always happen when things are either very bad or very good.
Fractures are difficult to predict. The author of http://www.booksgid.com/business/795-fuzzy-tekhnologija-matematicheskie.html#.T8kiNs2wfzE has been predicting the euro/dollar for 11 years. And quite accurately. But last week's collapse he couldn't predict, although the analysis is done by highly skilled professionals with a lot of experience using serious software that processes hundreds of requests per day...
Fractures are difficult to predict, but I think you can. We have to work)))
Fractures are difficult to predict. The author of http://www.booksgid.com/business/795-fuzzy-tekhnologija-matematicheskie.html#.T8kiNs2wfzE has been predicting the euro/dollar for 11 years. And quite accurately. But last week's collapse he could not predict, although the analysis is done by highly skilled professionals with a lot of experience using serious software that processes hundreds of requests per day...
Fractures are difficult to predict, but I think you can. We have to work)))
The monthly chart of the USD index has a false-break of the channel or it is a real one. What do you think?
The situation is contradictory for the USD index, which has fallen on the negative news from the USA
On Friday afternoon, 1 June 2012, oil prices continued to fall precipitously under the pressure of plenty of negative news. Following reports of a drop in business activity in the Eurozone to its lowest level since June 2009 and a rise in unemployment in the monetary union countries to a new record 11% of the working-age population, investors were "pleased" by data from the USA. Today, the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the country's unemployment rate in May rose by 0.1 percentage point from April to 8.2% of the working-age population (forecast: 8.1%). The number of non-farm jobs rose by just 69,000 in May (forecast: 150,000). Meanwhile, the number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose from 5.1 million to 5.4 million (42.8%) in May. Personal income of Americans rose by only 0.2% in April (forecast: +0.3%). Moreover, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Index fell to 53.5 points in May from 54.8 points in April (forecast: 53.9 points). As a result, in trading today on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), July WTI crude oil futures fell $2.98 to $83.55 a barrel (-3.44%) by 09.35 AM CST, July Brent crude oil futures on the London ICE fell $3.00 to $98.87 a barrel (-2.94%).
Usually when oil falls the USD Index rises but in this case it was the other way round
http://mykibo.com/index.php
Thank you!
Ratings agency Moody's on Saturday cut its maximum possible rating for Greek issuers by four points, to Caa2 from B1, on fears of a possible exit from the eurozone, Bloomberg reported.PRIME 13:36
Further development of the crisis engulfing Greece and EU aid to Athens depends on the outcome of snap parliamentary elections to be held in the country on June 17, Russia's permanent representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov said at a news conference organized by RIA Novosti on Thursday.RIA Novosti 31.05.12 17:40
The National Bank of Greece has made a forecast that the country's exit from the eurozone will result in the country's incomes halving, the BBC reports. The report, presented by the bank, also says that in this case, the government will be forced to default on foreign debt and inflation and unemployment will become even higher.
Oil production in the Persian Gulf
According to Biggs, the businessman explained to him the real motives behind Saudi Arabia's sharp increase in oil production, the prices of which will continue to fall over an extended period. Biggs asked the businessman for a forecast of Saudi Arabia's actions and oil prices in the medium and long term. The outlook was negative, despite the country's huge oil reserves. The interlocutor noted that this was part of the Saudi royal family's strategy.
Biggs cited the businessman in his research note.
You have to understand that we are in an extremely vulnerable geopolitical position. Our two most unfriendly countries are Iran and Iraq, where power is concentrated in Shiite hands. They are trying to destabilise the Arab region, and in particular our Kingdom, by financing terrorist organisations that fight against the official authorities. Our only chance to counter this effectively is to use financial resources and oil to manipulate the energy market. Iran and Iraq are currently struggling economically, their financial reserves are only a fraction of what we have, they are desperate for funds to support their economies.
The ruling dynasty has decided that we have a window of opportunity in the next two years to seriously weaken their economies by supporting low oil prices. Iran and Iraq need oil to stay above $100 a barrel, but we will gradually increase oil production over the next 24 months with the aim of bringing prices down to $60 a barrel.
The businessman also explained to Biggs that now is one of the most opportune times to pursue this strategy.
The wind is blowing at our backs. With the European crisis intensifying and the world economy slowing down, it will be much easier to destabilise the oil market. In a standard crisis situation, we would reduce production to keep oil prices high. Instead, however, we would be flooding the oil market, which is already having problems "digesting" oil. You should also understand that we will be supported by the royal families of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Biggs concluded that the information was true because the man he described was "very wealthy and probably well-connected" but was not a member of the Saudi royal family. He also notes that the "Saudi plan" could be hampered by a number of circumstances, such as changes in the political situation, as well as too many circumstances.
Nevertheless, Biggs believes that if the strategy is successful, the "old world" will have a respite from the high oil prices that have been strangling the economies of developed countries. Biggs ends his narrative with an interesting observation:
That said, Saudi Arabia is perfectly prudent in hedging its risks. Last week Saudi Arabia and British Aerospace signed a contract worth $3bn for the supply of training planes. Of course, even the best planes cannot protect you from suicide bombers. But apparently they can be handy for preventing "bad guys" from attacking your oil rigs or in the event of fighting in the Persian Gulf.
It should be noted that Saudi Arabia was again the world's biggest oil producer in March for the first time in six years, pushing Russia into second place. Production in March was 9.923m bpd compared with 9.853m in February.
The Greek currency ticker appeared on Bloomberg monitors today. For some time, traders' computers displayed the line "Greek Drachma (post Euro)". However, there was nothing else in the line except the name: neither description nor value.
Bloomberg's press service said that the appearance of the line with the Greek currency was due to "technical testing".
Earlier, some financiers had already made initial attempts to establish a fair price for the newly forgotten currency. Individual members of the financial sector have opened up the possibility for their clients to buy some drachmas. Thus, a new instrument actually appeared in the Forex market - the pair USD/GRD, which respectively shows the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Greek drachma.
The currency pair is auctioned and everyone can now get 276 drachmas for one US dollar. It is worth noting that this exchange rate, like any other, is subject to change. Traders thus have an opportunity to get a feel for the fair value of the new Greek currency.
On the other hand, rumors about the upcoming entry of the drachma into the market are being actively used by other interested parties. One of them is the company De La Rue, which produces banknotes on government orders. Since the beginning of the year its shares have already gained 10% on the news that De La Rue is supposed to receive an order from Greece to print drachmas.