FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications 2015(continued) - page 53
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What the fuck does this have to do with the course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fuck, I'm speechless.
If someone sells a fucking mountain of roubles and there is no buyer, the Central Bank of Russia will buy them because it is its direct responsibility, it mm the rouble, if it does not, then guess what will happen.
What the fuck are you playing at?
Well, that's debatable.
Let me explain.
For example, a year ago, when the rouble began to fall, but was still at 36r per quid, the guys in the RF Central Bank estimated that the weighted exchange rate, which they would be satisfied with, would be 45r/bucks.
And so, for example, you decided to buy a quid at 40p. You entered the market. Who will be your counterparty? THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION? Why would they do that, because they decided that they would smother the panic on the approaches to 45, that is they put limits on the sale of the dollar from 43 and up to 46 (for example).
Eventually, the rate will become 45 (if the Central Bank does not change its decision), but here is the most interesting in this interval.
And here, there are two options for those who will be your counterparties:
1) Limit orders of other participants, which is what your request will be triggered by.
2) Limit orders of other participants, which will be triggered by your request + some global MM, which will act as a counterparty on your deal, if the limits of other participants are not enough (and if he has a desire to act as a counterparty).
As it turns out (opuses about cb masterpieces) it's you ))))))))))))))))))
It's not my problem, I'm not a doctor. Told you - the subject is closed.
I respect you very much and thank you many more times for the book!
Anybody else have a suggestion?
ps
But you see, I was right - your theories are wrong - it's already documented.
You thought there was no buyer, but I opened your eyes that there is a buyer - it's me )))))))))))))))))))
The only way to deny it is to try to prove that I do not have a single ruble or a single dollar - that would certainly be a serious argument against me ))))). There is a ruble and a quid and a pound and a lion and a shekel - but it seems to have disappeared - but I do not agree about the shekel)))))))))
I respect you very much and thank you many more times for the book!
Anybody else have a suggestion?
ps
But you see, I was right - your theories are wrong - it's already documented.
You thought there was no buyer, but I opened your eyes that there is a buyer - it's me )))))))))))))))))))
actually it's funny)))) to buy something you don't need, you have to sell something you don't need first. you have to have numbers to start with, not dreams)
I respect you very much and thank you many more times for the book!
Anybody else have a suggestion?
ps
But you see, I was right - your theories are wrong - it's been documented now.
You thought there was no buyer, but I opened your eyes that there is a buyer - it's me )))))))))))))))))))
The answer is simple.
The Central Bank of Russia doesn't print quid, but how does it keep the rouble from falling?
It enters the market by selling quid in exchange for roubles.
Where does it get the quid from? Some from its reserves, and if not enough, then from the reserves or some kind of stabilization fund. And these "entries" are visible.
Therefore, to trade crosses according to Strange's method (or something similar) - is unreal (or very painful).
After all, any change of crosses audio/ruble occurs not because the Central Bank sells audio in exchange for ruble, but because this same cross is calculated through the quid.
Why trade the same, making it twice as difficult (to calculate audi/bucks and the buck/ruble separately and then find audi/ruble)?
I've finished.
Might still be interested to see zoghman://www.iep.ru/files/text/nauchnie_jurnali/trunin_RVV_1-2015.pdf
Thanks, very interesting !
so what have you come to in the end, i do not understand. how do you want to trade, what is your analysis based on?
Evgeniya gave interesting links, Strange made a mistake and called me a woodpecker for it, that's the whole point of the discussion, it has nothing to do with trade.
But what Evgeniya gave is interesting -
http://www.iep.ru/files/text/nauchnie_jurnali/trunin_RVV_1-2015.pdf
http://m.fondsk.ru/news/2014/09/19/valjutnye-svopy-v-sovremennom-mire.-rozhdenie-globalnogo-valjutnogo-kartelja-ii-29553.html
There are indications that the currencies that come off the printing presses of the Fed, ECB and the rest of the "six" central banks are not different monetary units, but a single currency. After all, if there are stable proportions of exchange between the euro, the US dollar, the British pound sterling, the yen, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar, then these are no longer different currencies, but different modifications of a single world currency.
I have in fact written many times about the fact that there is a synchronism in the course of currencies and I have been criticized by Strange many times again,
which does not detract from the advantages of Strenge as a tough trader (no irony)
And that's the hardest part, no one's been tested, how to live...
The man just let it pass his ear, the therapy didn't help.
Well, a lot of people start out that way, the rose-coloured glasses make it hard to see what's going on around them.