GBP: Sitting In Limbo: Where To Target?

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Since the US election, GBP has been the best performing currency in G10 against the USD. In this piece we argue that no individual factor, when taken in isolation, succeeds at providing a convincing explanation of this outperformance.

We rather identify a number of factors (politics, data, positioning) that collectively provide some degree of explanation of the currency’s strength.

While we maintain a bearish overall outlook on GBPUSD, in line with our 1.20 3m and 12m GBPUSD forecasts, we think these factors will likely contribute to keeping GBPUSD contained within a 1.20–1.30 range until the New Year.


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