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The FX market will now revert to watching bond and equity markets. 10year Treasury yields edged back up to 1.61%, which keeps them nicely in the middle of the month’s range, and our rates strategists tell me they need 1.57% to hold to avoid a bullish (in price terms) chart pattern
As long as the pound has this little support from real yields, I’m going to stay very bearish. EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/NOK are all good ways of expressing sterling bearishness.
While all that goes on, EUR/USD remains as frustrating as ever. 1.1280 is now a psychologically important resistance level and if it breaks, 1.14 is on the cards but more importantly, the mood can shift and focus return to this otherwise range bound pair.
On the downside, 1.1100-1.1150 has consistently thwarted bears over the summer and there’s nothing to suggest that changes soon.
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