Why September NFP Is Likely More Important Than Jackson Hole Speech - Deutsche Bank

[thenews]

The burden of responsibility is on negative events to prove otherwise, or risk appetite related variables are apt to continue to ‘bleed up’. Most participants cite Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech as the next potential hurdle for risk bulls, given latent concern the Fed Chair may want more ‘policy optionality’ and will make comments affirming that September is definitely ‘live’, albeit data dependent.

However, the July retail sales data affirmed that nothing more than this can be expected from the Fed Chair, because Yellen will not wish to repeat the mistakes of the Radcliffe speech, by prematurely signaling on policy, only to find the data does not deliver.

That means the September payroll number is likely to be more important than the Jackson Hole speech. (EUR/USD vol on the day is priced roughly equally for both events).