What Barclays sees next in the FX market
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Views on the majors
EUR/USD: We are overall bearish and would prefer to fade upticks against resistance in the 1.1245 area. A move below our initial downside targets near 1.1100 would open the 1.0990 area.
USD/JPY: No change. We are bearish against the 111.90 range highs and look for a move lower towards initial targets near 108.20. Below 108.20 would signal further downside towards our next targets in the 106.40 area and then 105.20.
EUR/CHF: We are turning bullish as Wednesday's "doji" candle signals that the recent down-tick is losing traction. We would look to buy dips against the 1.1015 range lows. A break above 1.1130 would open our targets near the 1.1200 year-to-date highs.
AUD/USD: No change. Small signs of seller capitulation signal a breather within the context of the overall bearish trend. While price closes below 0.7255, the 200-dma, we look for a move towards 0.7040 and then the 0.6825 year-to-date lows.
NZD/USD: Our bearish view is encouraged by the move to new lows. We are looking for further downside towards targets near 0.6665 and then 0.6545.
USD/CAD: Wednesday's slow close endorses the succession of small topping candles on the daily plot and encourages us to re-establish a bearish view. Our downside targets are towards 1.2895 and then the 1.2770 range lows.
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