USD/JPY: Higher; EUR/USD: Going NoWhere; GBP/USD: A Mystery

 

Solid US economic data yesterday and a ‘risk-on’ day in Asia today; there ought to be smiles at the Federal Reserve: So far, so good for their plan to persuade markets to price in a faster pace of rate hikes without throwing the baby (and the S&P 500) out with the bathwater. Europe wakes up to $50 oil, solid equity indices and in FX-land, a marginally softer dollar. I’m watching the bond market today, wondering whether it will react to the cheerful mood by driving yields a little higher.

FX volatility remains firmly anchored, but we could see USD/JPY edge higher though the brightest lights in FX-land today are likely to be the resource currencies.

EUR/USD is going nowhere, The Pair is glued into its range.

GBP/USD is a mystery to me, and the dollar overall remains in an uptrend even if that move pauses today. The UK sees no data today, so the focus is on referendum opinion polls, still encouraging bookmakers to view an exit from the EU as increasingly unlikely. I thought GBP shorts had been all but squeezed out, so yesterday’s bounce caught me completely by surprise. The UK economy is slowing irrespective of the referendum and that leaves me keen to stay short GBP/USD if possible for now, to be short after the vote,


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