What are the banks saying about Brexit?

New comment
 

Bloomberg has been around the banks collecting their views on Brexit

  • Barclays - Baseline scenrario is that the UK stays
  • Morgan Stanley - Expects a slow pick up in inflation leading to rate hikes in early 2017
  • BofAML - Expect a renewed period of pound weakness heading in to the vote
  • SocGen - Has Brexit risk at 45%. Cable could drop below 1.30, EURUSD could drop below parity
  • JPM - Vote to leave would bring a further 10% frop in the pound
  • Nomura - Sees a near 25% chance of an exit, MPC to cut rates on signs economy is deteriorating
  • Credit Suisse - Expects a vote to stay
  • RBC - Pound could fall 10-15% on Brexit
  • DB - Baseline view that the UK stays. Pound may bounce on a vote to remain but downside risks to the economy suggest selling it
  • HSBC - Can't rule out the BOE cutting rates on an exit vote
  • UBS - Leave vote may bring confrontational negotiations
  • Goldies - Don't play Brexit via EURGBP. Expect 15% jump in the pound over 12 months on a vote to stay

That's just the highlights and the Bloomberg story has the full details, which is well worth a read if you want to get a feel for what the banks are thinking.

New comment