US Market Insight: Will Yellen Subscribe to June Option?
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A key issue that surfaced in the April meeting minutes was the discomfort some participants felt with what they described as "unduly low" market-based odds of a Fed move in June. Subsequent repricing of the odds, encouraged by some additional hawkish rhetoric from some non-voters, might have palliated that discomfort.
It certainly encouraged the dollar to extend its rally from 15-month lows logged against a basket of its main peers at the start of May. The dollar index finished the five trading days 0.9% higher and marked its highest level since late March.
The final week of May should show the first quarter slump, in terms of GDP, was milder than originally reported, while bring more evidence of the magnitude of the second quarter rebound.
"We expect Q1GDP to be revised up to 1.0% next week, but we think markets will focus on the data that reflects Q2 growth — the advance goods trade balance and core capital goods orders and shipments," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA) wrote in their weekly note.
Thursday will be the heaviest day in terms of macro-updates. Jobless claims should ease back further after dropping from a more-than-one-year-high last week. Released simultaneously, the durable goods orders report will be scrutinized for evidence of persisting weakness in equipment investment.
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