Eurogroup Gives Greece 10 Day Ultimatum: Apply For Bailout Or Grexit - page 2
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улти_матом................
Interesting on what will happen!
Typical political games : nothing
The Greek Issue Just Got Personal
It was already present over the past two weeks, for example in Yanis Varoufakis’ meetings with Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem and German FinMin Schäuble, awkwardly obvious in facial expressions and body language. A touch of personal discomfort. A touch of a threat that required chest-thumping and hubris to be brushed off. ‘You better do what we say or else’. Back then, perhaps it was still experienced from a political, deal-making, perspective. But in the course of yesterday it became clear something has changed.
It has become personal, you could feel it in the air, and that raises the danger level considerably. It’s not personal from the Greek side; Alexis Tsipras and Varoufakis merely act according to – their interpretation of – the mandate handed them by their voters. It’s the other side(s) that have started making it personal. They see themselves, their positions, as being under attack. And they blame Greece’s new Syriza government for that. Which may seem logical at first blush, but that doesn’t make it true. The people sitting on the other side from Varoufakis have dug themselves into these positions.
Which, as they rightfully fear, are now threatened. Not because Syriza means to do so, but because they come to the table with that mandate, to put an end to what has caused Greece to sink as deep as it has. There’s nothing personal about that, it’s democracy at work, it’s politics. Still, it’s perceived as personal, because it makes the ‘old’ leadership uncomfortable. They haven’t seen it coming, they were convinced, all the way, that they would prevail. They mostly still are, but in a now much more nervous fashion.
It’s started to dawn on them that perhaps Syriza will not back down on its demands, that yet another – mostly superficial – political deal is not in the cards. CNBC reported last night that a deal on an extension of the existing bailout was near, and markets reacted quite strongly. It would appear, therefore, that both media and investors have been as deaf as the EU to what Syriza has been consistently saying, that it’s not interested in such an extension. It was never on the table, not from the Greek point of view.
Perhaps a headline such as yesterday’s ‘Greece Warned To Expect No Favors’ sums it up best. The EU side sees – or at least publicly presents – any negotiation with Greece as handing out favors, while Syriza says it doesn’t want any favors, it wants something that will give the Greek people back a future. And there is nothing that will make them not want that.
There is of course a fear within the EU that what is granted to Greece will eventually also have to be handed to other countries. Interestingly, though, the incumbent governments of the countries involved, Spain, Portugal, Italy, have a vested interest in Syriza failing. Because if it doesn’t, their powers are set to dwindle. This is most urgently obvious in Spain, where PM Rajoy’s ruling party is already way behind Podemos in the polls.
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, writing in the Guardian, made his position very clear:
If The Greek Olive Branch Is Rejected, Europe May FallAnd though Portugal may not – yet – have a full-fledged Syriza or Podemos, it’s economy is in straits as dire as those of its peers, as Ambrose EP explains today:
Germany Faces Impossible Choice As Greek Austerity Revolt Spreads Ambrose also quotes Italy’s Beppe Grillo:It COULD happen. If defaults begin..., it will be an almost unstoppable chain reaction.
I Will Do Anything for Creditors, But I Won't Do That: Greek Gov't
Greece will make every effort to clinch a deal with the country's creditors at Monday's Eurogroup meeting in Brussels but will not take any action that would "offend the sovereignty of the nation and of the people", government spokesman Gavriil Sakellaridis told Greek Skai television on Friday.
"We will do whatever we can so that a deal is found on Monday," Sakellaridis said in an interview. He added that discussions on technical issues would start on Friday on Brussels, stressing that the government remains opposed to any measures that would increase austerity and put even more pressure on society.
"Over the next three days, we will present our proposals for reforms, our proposals on the fiscal level, but also as regards tackling the humanitarian crisis."
Sakellarides also said that alternative measures to substitute those regarded as "toxic" are being discussed, but would not be immediately enforced. The government remains opposed to any measures or assessment that would "offend the sovereignty of the nation and of the people."
Greek representatives start talks with officials from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Brussels on Friday, following Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's meeting with Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem on Thursday. The two leaders agreed that both sides would step up efforts to find "common ground."
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Eurogroup Dijsselbloem: 'Very Pessimistic' About Greek Deal
Adding to a cloud of comments about ongoing talks concerning the fate of the Greek bailout - and potentially, the fate of the country itself - Eurogoup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Friday that he was not optimistic at all ahead of Monday's crucial meeting.
Saying Greek voters’ expectations of their new cabinet were "a mile high", Dijsselbloem - who is also the Dutch finance minister - was asked whether a plan to resolve Athens’ financial problems would be achieved at Monday's Eurogroup meeting.
His reply, aired on Dutch television, however, didn't exactly showed any hope: "I’m really still very pessimistic about that now."
"The possibilities, given the state of the Greek economy, are limited," he continued. "I don't know if we'll get there by Monday."
Blasting Greece
Dijsselbloem offered a stark criticism of the country's governments , saying Athens "for a number of months now has received no loans from Europe, because nothing's happening."
"We only lend out money when there's real progress and when new reforms are being carried through. For months this has not been the case," he claimed.
"It really is up to the Greek government to take the firsts steps," he said.
His comments came as euro zone finance ministers will meet on Monday to try to agree a debt deal with Greece's new government, which overwhelmingly won elections in January on promises of ending the €240 billion bailout and the belt-tightening reforms that came with it, and does not want to ask for an extension, even by a few months.
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The Troika That Greece Should Really Fear
Syriza swept to power in Greece on an anti-austerity and reform platform. Their bogeyman during the campaign was the "troika" of the European Union, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund. The troika is the entity that comes to Athens to make sure Greece is complying with the terms of its bailout.
Since winning the election, Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has declared an end to the troika and set about renegotiating Greece's international bailout.
While the negotiations are ongoing, there is another troika that Greece should fear.
There are three main risks to the Greek economy right now.
The longer the Greek government spends on the renegotiation of its program, the worse each of the domestic troika of problems will become as political uncertainty continues.
If the Greek government makes the mistake of spending too much time on the bailout negotiations and not enough securing the domestic economy, it may risk comparisons to the great Greek general Pyrrhus, coming home with a victory to an economy that is beyond saving.
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All those data is the same for almost all the countries : what makes it different for Greece? The machine to discredit Grexit started from US side
Greeks Show Support for Tsipras on Eve of Brussels Talks
Thousands of Greeks gathered in central Athens Sunday in support of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government, as officials prepared for a crunch meeting with creditors aimed at breaking an impasse over financing Europe’s most indebted state.
Police said more than 20,000 people assembled in front of the Greek Parliament as of about 8 p.m. in Athens, with more expected to join during the evening. The show of support was directed at a government delegation led by Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis that will return to Brussels early Monday to try and negotiate a bridge agreement with euro-area peers that allows time and financing to discuss Greece’s post-bailout era.
Greek stocks and bonds rose on Friday as officials on both sides signaled a willingness to compromise. With Greece’s current bailout running out at the end of February, discussions continued at technical level into the weekend to prepare the ground for the Brussels meeting of finance chiefs.
“We’re looking at difficult negotiations on Monday,” Tsipras was cited as saying in a weekend interview with Germany’s Stern magazine. “Nevertheless, I’m full of confidence.”
Talks took place on Saturday between officials from Greece’s finance and foreign ministries and technical delegations from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The focus was on identifying common ground and those areas of divergence rather than on negotiating, according to Greek and EU officials.
Deal Uncertain
Varoufakis said that both sides have agreed on many issues already, according to an interview with Kathimerini newspaper published on Saturday. It still isn’t certain that a final agreement will be reached Monday, the Greek official said.
Tsipras’s Syriza party was elected Jan. 25 on a platform of ending austerity, a partial debt writedown and no more audits by the troika of the commission, the ECB and the IMF. It is seeking a bridge agreement for the next six months that will replace its current bailout, which it blames for the country’s economic hardship, and secure the country’s financing needs to give officials time to discuss “a new deal” with the euro area, Tsipras said last week.
The government is “determined to abide by its commitment to the Greek people and its fresh mandate to end austerity,” government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis told Skai TV Sunday.
Program Extension
Creditors including Germany, which is the biggest country contributor to Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($273 billion) twin bailouts and the chief proponent of economic reform in return for aid, insist that Tsipras’s government commit to an extension of its current rescue program. They are more willing to discuss changes to the terms of the bailout.
In the face of opposition, the Greek government has already watered down its position on the debt, ditching a pre-election pledge for a writedown in its nominal value. Greece has more than 320 billion euros in debt outstanding, about 175 percent of GDP, mostly in the form of bailout loans from the euro area and the IMF.
While fellow euro-area countries will “of course” discuss Greece’s debt, “it is out of the question to cancel the debt, we can discuss its maturity,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, told Europe 1 radio Sunday.
Euro finance ministers held their first talks with Varoufakis in Brussels last week, with no deal beyond a willingness to keep talking. “Previous discussions didn’t yield any result in the beginning,” said Fabius. “Now it’s moving slowly.”
While Tsipras’s Syriza-led government has no natural political allies around the table on Monday, his support at home remains solid. Sixty-one percent of 1,015 Greek people polled by Kapa Research for To Vima newspaper this weekend said they approved of the government’s approach.
“We need time rather than money to put into effect our reform plans,” Tsipras said after convening a meeting of his cabinet in Athens Friday night, Stern reported. “I promise you, within six months Greece will be a different country.”
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Germany's Schaeuble 'Very Sceptical' About Deal With Greece
Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview for Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio station that he was not optimistic that Greece and its EU peers would reach a debt deal at the Eurogroup talks on Monday in Brussels.
"From what I've heard about the technical talks over the weekend, I'm very sceptical, but we will get a report today and then we'll see," Schaeuble told the radio station.
He clarified that Germany did not want a Greek exit from the single currency area, but that the new Greek government had to fulfill "the minimum of the claims" and that the agreement was not about finding a deal "just for the sake of a compromise".
"The problem is that Greece has lived beyond its means for a long time and that nobody wants to give Greece money anymore without guarantees," Schaeuble said, referring to the need to stick to agreed reforms to become more competitive.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is meeting his euro zone peers as well as ECB President Mario Draghi on Monday to discuss how to proceed with his country's current bailout program which expires on February 28.
Varoufakis said on Sunday that a deal between Greece and the euro zone will be found, even at the last minute
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