GBPUSD news - page 44
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UK Retail Sales Strongest for Almost a Year in March: BRC
Retail sales spending surged 4.7% in March against a 0.3% fall during the same month a year ago, boosted by the Easter festive season, falling a month earlier this year when compared to the previous year, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported on Tuesday.
The report further showed that food sales grew at the strongest rate since July 2013, helped by the Easter distortion, while online sales of non-food products also increased markedly.
Commenting on the figures, BRC Director General Helen Dickinson said that "retailers can be satisfied with the consumer response to their Mother's Day and Easter offerings, but it is important to note that April figures will be impacted by the absence of Easter this year."
David McCorquodale, head of retail at KPMG, argued that "price deflation continues to dog the sector, and while supermarkets may be selling more, they are peddling hard to stand still. Demand is definitely pushing in the right direction, but there is a long way to go before like for like food sales are back in positive territory."
"Any retail recovery is built on confidence and uncertainty around the outcome of the election continues to cast a shadow over the long term recovery of the sector. If the result causes concern and confusion this could be the factor that stifles consumer spending," he added.
According to the latest official statistics, the UK retail sales volumes, both including and excluding fuel, rose above estimates in February with increases in all sectors - with the biggest growth seen in department stores. The official data on March retail performance is due April 23.
Financial morale among UK consumers picked up sharply in the first quarter as the current and future inflation perceptions have decreased markedly in recent months. Data compiler Markit reported earlier that the consumer index had increased significantly in March as the financial outlook for the next twelve months improved for a sixth consecutive month.
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UK Inflation Unchanged, Core CPI Hits 8-Year Low
The rate of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at an all-time low of 0% in March, as the markets had predicted. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of energy, food and alcohol, fell below expectations to 1.0%, its lowest rate in almost nine years, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.
The ONS noted that despite the headline CPI rate remained unchanged at 0%, the CPI index level fell in March when compared to the previous month, taking the annual CPI rate slightly below zero, when based on a rate rounded to two decimal places (-0.01%).
Dragging the CPI 12-month rate down was clothing and footwear, which for the first time ever recorded by the ONS, prices fell between February and March. The ONS's Philip Gooding noted that: “normally they (prices) rise as they continue to recover from the January sales period.”
The other largest downward contribution came from housing and household services, which fell 0.4%, on the back of gas prices and average bills falling by more this year than a year ago.
Upward contributions came from transport due to fuel prices as petrol prices rose 3.8 pence per liter compared with no change in the same period last year. The price of food and non alcoholic beverages actually fell but only by 0.2% compared with a 0.5% drop in the same period last year.
The majority of deviation from the the Bank of England's 2% target has come from the lower prices of energy and food in the last six months. Adding further downward pressure is the effect of sterling's appreciation early last year. The cable currency pair remained subdued on Tuesday and traded near 2010 post-election lows. In his budget speech last month Chancellor George Osborne noted the record low inflation and confirmed that on the same day the Office for Budget Responsibility had revised down its forecast for inflation this year to 0.2% and revised it down for the next three years.
On the back of this he added: “We will also use this opportunity to lock in the historically low interest rates for the long term.”
When recently asked if the BoE should ease monetary policy further in order to offset low inflation, Governor Mark Carney said it would be "extremely foolish" to be in a hurry to boost inflation now.
In a separate release the ONS said UK house prices were up 7.2% in the year to February 2015, down from 8.4% in the year to January. Increases were driven by an annual increase in the east, where house prices were up 10.7% and in London where they were up 9.4%.
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GBP/USD: Cable Shoots for $1.48 After IMF Revises US Outlook
The pound revived from its five-year low and jumped well into the green versus the US dollar on Tuesday, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut forecasts for US growth in 2015 by 0.5 percentage point to 3.1%.
The pound galloped 0.68% to $1.4771 against the US dollar on Tuesday, reviving from its weakest level since 2010 at $1.4564, where the currency had dipped in the last session.
US retail sales
The volume of US retail trade rose 0.9% on a monthly basis in March, a strong rebound from February's upwardly revised 0.5% fall, according to the fresh report. A rise of 1% had been expected.
Meanwhile, producer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, while a drop of 0.8% was booked on an annual basis, the fresh report showed.
UK CPI
Earlier in the day, UK consumer prices remained flat in March, the same as in February, posting the lowest imprint on record. The latest figure met market estimates of zero growth.
On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, a slowdown from the 0.3% gain booked a month ago, while analysts had been predicting a 0.2% rise.
The core CPI hit 1.0% in March, measured on a yearly basis, a slide from the 1.2% level in the previous month, the report showed.
Looking ahead, UK labor data will be released on Friday, with unemployment in the country expected to decline again, to 5.6% in the second month of the year from 5.7% reported in January.
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GBP/USD: Pair on Cusp of $1.48 After Trans-Atlantic Data Duel
A helter-skelter week for sterling continued on Tuesday, as the currency recovered from mid-2010 lows against the US dollar.
Traders had to choose between a rock and a hard place in terms of macro data, with the UK figures eventually coming out on top.
The UK pound sustained all of its daily gains and was showing a 0.70% advance to $1.47752 on Tuesday, resting on the cusp of the $1.48 marker.
However, the day began on a much different tone for the cross, as a report showed prices of core goods and services paid for by consumers in the UK over the past twelve months rose at the slowest pace in nearly nine years.
Sterling slipped to within a hair's breadth of Monday's lows and bought as little as $1.46 following the release, which showed core consumer inflation in the year through March was a mere 1%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), while the markets sought a steady reading of 1.2%.
Policy questions
The latest reading was only half of the Bank of England's inflation target, adding to uncertainty over when policymakers might be able to start raising short-term interest rates.
Last week, the BoE kept policy on hold as broadly expected. Yet without a post-meeting communique, investors will have to wait for the release of the minutes to get a deeper look at policymakers' thinking.
While benchmark rates in the UK seem unlikely to go up this year, on the other hand, the Federal Reserve has been gearing up for a rate lift-off sometime this year, most likely in the latter half.
With the policy divergence benefiting dollar-buyers, the pound had slipped south of $1.4570 on Monday for the first time since June 2010.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Touches Intraday Low, $1.47 Within Reach
The cable pair shifted down again on Wednesday, after the pound recovered from mid-2010 lows against the US dollar in the last session, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut forecasts for US growth in 2015 by 0.5 of a percentage point to 3.1%.
The pound eased 0.40% to $1.4716 against the US dollar on Wednesday, hitting a fresh intraday low.
Cable was heading towards Monday's five-year low $1.4564, which came about due to deteriorating Chinese trade data which supported the US dollar across the board.
Monday's downbeat data was compounded further by a fresh release showing the Chinese economy in the first quarter posted only 7% growth, down from 7.3% in Q4 in 2014, which injected further life into the US dollar on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the latest report showed that UK consumer prices remained flat in March, the same as in February, posting the lowest imprint on record. The latest figure met market estimates of zero growth.
Traders wait for UK labor data on Friday, with unemployment in the country expected to decline to 5.6% from 5.7% in February.
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Pound Gives up Overnight Gains
Sterling gave up overnight gains and turned to losses ahead of the European open. Traders will focus again on the US macro data, as the UK calendar offers no events on Thursday.
The UK pound rallied more than 50 pips during the mid-Asian trade versus the dollar to hit its fresh daily high of $1.4879. Toward the start of the European trading, the pound reversed gains and turned to losses, declining 0.07% to $1.4827.
"Despite a dip back to 1.4700 yesterday, the prospect of a move back towards 1.5000 remains, after the move through 1.4740 earlier this week. For this to unfold we need to hold above the 1.4680 level. A decline back through 1.4700 towards 1.4565 keeps the risk for a revisit of the 2010 post-election lows at 1.4230," Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets UK, wrote on Thursday.
Throughout the previous session, the sterling advanced primarily on the broad weakness of the greenback. The lower-than-expected US data flow kept the USD on the back foot. The latest industrial production data showed the largest drop in two and a half years for March, as well as the worst quarterly performance since Q2 of 2009.
The main drag was the oil and gas sector, and the worst Empire manufacturing survey since December last year also weighed, while the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book of economic conditions posted a disappointing overview of the economy over the last month.
On the US macro front, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey for April is expected to improve to 6 from 5 in March, but given the sharp drop seen in the Empire survey, the prospect of a miss can’t be ruled out.
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GBP/USD: Pound Leaps to Weekly High as Buck Loses Ground
The British pound jumped to a weekly high against the US dollar and stretched the recent correction from a five-year low at $1.4563 seen on Monday during the Asian market hours.
"This is more dollar weakness, driven by the market coming around to the fact that these economic releases are weaker," TJM Brokerage co-head Richard Scalone mentioned. "Everything across the board screams for the Fed to be patient."
Cable was seen 0.53% elevated at $1.4913 on Thursday afternoon, while the US dollar index lost 0.43% to 97.895 points.
Week housing data
On Thursday, the European macro calendar offered no suitable impulses for bulls or bears, however, despite this the GBP/USD cross experienced a major up-move at the beginning of European trading hours.
US traders carefully watched updates from the housing market as building permits slipped to 1.039 million units in March, missing the estimate of 1.081 million units, while housing starts rose less than expected to 0.926 million from 0.908 million in February.
Moreover, initial jobless claims rose more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 in the week ended April 11, after 281,000 seen previously, according the fresh report from the Department of Labor.
On the upside, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surprisingly advanced to 7.5 points in April, better than the expected 5.0 points, after the 5.0 points seen in the previous month.
Later in the afternoon, several speeches from the Federal Reserve officials are scheduled - namely from Dennis Lockhart, Loretta Mester, Eric Rosengren and Stanley Fischer.
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GBP/USD: Sterling Inches Higher Ahead of Jobs Data
The UK pound remains cautious ahead of the highly anticipated UK jobs figures for March, due later in the day.
Expectations ahead of Friday's labor market data release suggest the UK jobless rate fell further to 5.6% in the quarter to February, which would be down from 5.7% measured a month before. Jobless claims, a narrower and less distant gauge tracking labor market activity, is expected to have declined by 29,500 in March, bringing the claimant-count rate to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in the previous month.
More importantly, average earnings for the three months to February are expected at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous month.
The pound was seen virtually flat ahead of the European open, trading at $1.4930. The sterling also took advantage of broadly lower US dollar and extended it's weekly gains. The pound rose from levels around $1.4565, seen at the beginning of the week, to its weekly high of $1.4966 seen in the previous session.
"We suspect sterling could be an attractive recovery trade once election uncertainty is resolved but we believe it’s too early to position for that move," BNP Paribas wrote on Friday.
On the US macro front, consumer prices will be in focus. US March CPI numbers are expected to tick higher, but core CPI needs to see an uplift to prevent further USD selling. US CPI for March is at 0.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month.
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UK Jobless Rate Falls as Wages Remain Subdued
Britain's jobless rate fell to 5.6% in February, while wage growth was only slightly up for pay excluding bonuses but pay including bonuses rose lower than the previous three months, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Friday.
Regular pay was up by 1.8% against January's rise of 1.6% while total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by a mere 1.7%, down from the revised 1.9% growth in January. Financial services saw the biggest pay rise in the quarter to February, with the manufacturing sector seeing the weakest wage growth.
Pay growth suffered a significant downturn in the UK following the 2008 financial crisis, and the consequent credit crunch. While the gauge measuring average weekly earnings published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was rising between January 2003 and December 2008 at an average of 4.2%, the same measure of pay growth declined to the average increase of only 1.2% between January 2009 and the same month this year.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 20,700 slightly worse than January's fall of 29,100. The claimant count rate fell in line with expectations to 2.3%. The last time it was lower than this was in February 1975.
In line with previous months, there was another record high for the number of people in employment in Britain; 248,000 more in the three months ending February, compared with the period between September and November last year.
The number of part-time workers who could not find a full-time job increased 2.2% in the quarter to February, compared to the previous three months.
ONS data showed that there were 5.40 million people employed in the public sector for December 2014, which was 6,000 fewer compared with September of the same year and the lowest figure since records began in 1999. This is against private sector employment, which rose 149,000 for the same time period.
A study carried out by Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG found that permanent staff placements rose at their fastest pace in four months, while permanent staff salaries continued to increase in February.
Engineering was the most sought-after category for permanent staff in the latest survey period, ahead of nursing. The weakest growth of demand was for hotel and catering workers.
Bernard Brown, head of business services at KPMG, said: “While the job market might be booming, demand for staff is by no means universal across the sectors.
“The recovery is being heavily driven by hiring activity by UK plc, while the public sector remains in a semi-stasis ahead of further anticipated cuts later in the year.
“The availability of skilled candidates remains a significant concern and businesses are already fiercely competing to secure top talent. This dynamic is driving significant salary growth in pockets of the market, such as the IT and engineering sectors, where the demand/supply mismatch is particularly prevalent.”
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UK Jobless Rate Falls as Wages Remain Subdued
Britain's jobless rate fell to 5.6% in February, the lowest since quarter to July 2008, while wage growth was only slightly up for pay excluding bonuses but pay including bonuses rose lower than the previous three months, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Friday.
Regular pay was up by 1.8% against January's rise of 1.6% while total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by a mere 1.7%, down from the revised 1.9% growth in January. Financial services saw the biggest pay rise in the quarter to February, with the manufacturing sector seeing the weakest wage growth.
Still, with inflation rate currently at zero, nominal wage growth translates equally to increased real income growth, bolstering consumer spending and overall economic performance.
Pay growth suffered a significant downturn in the UK following the 2008 financial crisis, and the consequent credit crunch. While the gauge measuring average weekly earnings published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was rising between January 2003 and December 2008 at an average of 4.2%, the same measure of pay growth declined to the average increase of only 1.2% between January 2009 and the same month this year.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 20,700 slightly worse than January's fall of 29,100. The claimant count rate fell in line with expectations to 2.3%. The last time it was lower than this was in February 1975.
In line with previous months, there was another record high for the number of people in employment in Britain; 248,000 more in the three months ending February, compared with the period between September and November last year. The number of part-time workers who could not find a full-time job increased 2.2% in the quarter to February, compared to the previous three months.
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