AUD/USD news - page 21
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Data due from Australia today (I'll get to the dinner invitation in a moment)
2330GMT - ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer confidence (week ended June 28), prior was 114.0
0100GMT - HIA (that'd be the Housing Industry of Australia) New Home Sales for May
prior was +0.6% m/m
0130GMT - Private Sector Credit for May
The private sector credit will be the focus, but it isn't usually much of an FX market-mover. Included with this data is the 'business' and 'housing' credit data, which will also be looked at. I don't have 'expected' points for this, but the priors (for April) were:
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Due at 0840GMT (June 30), and our dinner guest (well, dinner time for me, anyway), Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks in London at a function hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London. The topic is The Changing Landscape of Central Banking.
Stevens' speech comes in the hours leading up to the 'blackout' period before a board meeting. The next meeting is on Tuesday (July 7). RBA staff are not to speak to the media during the blackout. It begins on Wednesday afternoon (when the RBA's internal Policy Discussion Group, this is where RBA staff recommendations to the board are formulated).
sourceThank you for sharing.
AUD/USD: Aussie Hits 6-Yr Low on Weak Retail Sales, Iron Prices -
The so-called aussie extended its losing streak on Friday, dropping for the third day in a row on the back of sluggish consumer spending and the huge drop in iron ore prices, the biggest one in a two months. On Thursday, the negative trend was halted for a while after the greenback eased on a non-farm payrolls miss.
The AUD/USD pair was heavily sold-off following the retail sales data, dropping from an intraday high of $0.7649 seen a minute before the release to hit a session low later on. During the European morning, its losses increased further, dropping around 1.5% on a day and reaching a six-year low at $0.7517.
Australian retail turnover rose 0.3% in May, coming in below market expectations of a 0.5% increase. Moreover, April's figure was downwardly revised by one notch to a 0.1% decline.
The trading volume is expected to be muted as US bourses will be closed today in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Markets sentiment will be driven mainly by next week’s economic news from Australia as the RBA's cash rate decision is scheduled on Tuesday while labor data report for June is due on Thursday.
Thursday's undershooting NFP
June's non-farm payrolls report showed 223,000 new jobs after 254,000 in May, with the jobless rate sliding to 5.3% from 5.5% previously. The market had expected a figure of 233,000, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%.
Average hourly earnings rose 2% year-on-year, a fall from 2.3% in May, while no growth was recorded on a monthly basis - a slowdown from the 0.3% hike a month before. The results missed estimates.
Moreover, the weekly report on initial jobless claims was published as well, showing 281,000 for the week to June 27, following 271,000 booked a week before and compared to estimates of 270,000.
"Overall, this cannot be regarded as a strong release, and will dampen market thoughts of Fed lift-off," Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, wrote in a note. "But this really is dreadful, volatile data, and we think it is more likely that the payrolls data eventually swings behind other high frequency labor indicators in coming months, which are running quite strong, than the other way around."
AUD/USD: Iron Bears Whip Aussie Hard, Pushed to 6-Yr Low
Australia's dollar dipped against its US namesake this week, as a deadly cocktail of soft macro and a slide in iron ore prices mercilessly pushed it to a fresh six-year low.
The so-called aussie gave up 1.1% and ended Friday at $0.7506against the greenback. Exactly seven days ago, it was seen at $0.7646.
"The economy is still struggling to make that transition from mining-led growth to other forms of growth," Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney commented.
Weekly performance
The drop happened during the second half of the week, as the AUD/USD pair had actually started on a stronger footing - it gained 0.68% and 0.27% on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. However, almost all of these gains were burned on Wednesday, when the aussie lost 0.73%. Volatile Thursday ironically brought a flat result on an intraday basis - given the heavy-hitting and weaker-than-expected NFP report in the US - but a downturn resumed on Friday, when the aussie slid 1.7%.
As for the weekly highs and lows, the pair snatched its highest point at $0.7739 on Wednesday and the lowest of $0.7494 on Friday, breaking its six-year low of $0.7533 from April 2.
Slowing China
The move came as the week was dominated by macro data that mostly undershot expectations, not only from Australia, but also from its biggest trading partner - China.
Factories in the 'Middle Kingdom' slowed more than expected in June, the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed on Wednesday, with the headline gauge balancing just a few hairs above contraction.
Deep trade deficit
Oz domestic data didn't offer any reason to cheer either - Australia's trade balance has languished in the red for the 14th straight month in May, data showed on Thursday, with the gauge coming in at an even wider deficit than expected. The reading highlighted how the end of the mining investment boom has been taking its toll on the nation's bottom line.
Although the print offered some bright spots - namely a rise of iron ore and coal exports - the trade deficit was more than twice what it was at the beginning of the year, and analysts expect the deficits to persist in the coming months while coal and iron ore prices stay weak.
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AUD/USD: Aussie Uses Worsened ISM to Post Fresh Daily Highs
The US data on Monday failed to help the greenback, when both headline numbers had missed estimates. First the services PMI dropped to a five month low of 54.8, followed by a weaker reading of the non-manufacturing ISM for June, which improved from 55.7 to 56.0, however, failed to meet estimates of 56.4.
Traders interpreted these last numbers as slightly negative and the US dollar was easing during the US session, which pushed the AUD/USD pair to a new daily high of $0.7510. Nevertheless, the aussie only erased earlier losses, when it was seen at fresh six year lows.
"While Thursday’s nonfarm payroll report did little to increase the odds of a September rate hike, we similarly believe the report did little to derail a rate hike in September. The 223K headline gain should be seen as strong, with the US economy adding an average of 245K jobs per month over the past year. While the 6-month pace of job growth has slowed to 208K, this remains well above the pace needed to continue decreasing labor market slack, a positive for future wage growth. We rated the payroll print a “5 out of 10” following the prior month’s stellar print," Gennadiy Goldberg, US Strategist at TD Securities wrote on Monday.
Investors will also be paying attention to Wednesday's FOMC minutes, which might contain some helpful hints as to whether the governors are thinking about the liftoff at the September meeting, or if December is more probable.
From the Australian point of view, labor market data for June are due on Thursday, with the unemployment rate expected to increase from 6.0% to 6.1% and the employment change predicted to remain unchanged, well down from 42,000 jobs created last month.
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AUD/USD: Aussie at 6-Yr Low, FOMC Minutes in Focus
The Australian dollar moved lower against its US counterpart as traders start to shift their attention toward the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting to get some further hints about the timing of the first interest rate hike.
The aussie declined 0.62% and traded at $0.7404 against the US dollar, rebounding slightly from the intraday low hit earlier when the pair slid below the $0.74 handle.
The main driver of the currency pair today will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest minutes. The central bank's policymakers made clear they intend to raise the benchmark interest rates after a period of record low borrowing costs. Traders will analyze the documents for further hints about when such a scenario may occur.
The situation in Greece will also be highly watched. Following yesterday's talks, EU President Donald Tusk said the final deadline to reach a deal ends this week. "Until now I have avoided talking about deadlines, but tonight I have to say it loud and clear - the final deadline ends this week. All of us are responsible for the crisis, and all of us have a responsibility to resolve it."
In the previous session, the US currency was supported by a narrower than expected increase in the trade deficit in May, with it widening 2.9% to $41.9 billion.
"Finally on another content heavy day we get the copy of the most recent FOMC minutes, and apart from Fed policymaker’s views on the US economy, investors will be looking for clues as to any concerns Fed officials have about events in Europe and China, as well as concerns about the strength of the US dollar," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets said in a recent research note.
"At the last press conference Janet Yellen expressed concerns about a lack of wage growth and given recent data it will be interesting to note if any other members share those concerns.Given recent events though you have to wonder whether or not the minutes may not be a little dated," he added.
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The Australian dollar reversed losses and swung sharply above $0.74, following upbeat domestic jobs data. Even so, Chinese equities and commodities remain a key driver for AUD and NZD, while the FOMC Minutes had little impact.
The Australian economy added 7.3k jobs in June, versus the zero figure that was expected. The jobless rate came in at 6.0%, beating expectations of 6.1%.
After a weak overnight session, AUD/USD rallied into positive territory following the jobs report. The aussie jumped to the $0.7474, session's high, while during mid Asian trade the currency was 0.49% higher at $0.7463.
"The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment rate in the second half of the year will play a part in prompting the RBA to cut interest rates from 2.0% now to 1.5%," Capital Economics reported after the release.
The aussie is further threatened by commodity price weakness, which was the main feature overnight.Iron ore remains at a 6-year low and fell a further 10% and oil and other industrial metals remained under downward pressure.
interesting to see developments.
AUD/USD Forecast July 13-17
AUD/USD continues to struggle, as the pair dropped to its lowest levels since May 2009. The pair closed the week with slight losses, dipping to 0.7440. There are nine releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Fed minutes showed caution towards a rate hike and were dovish in general. The minutes also mentioned Greece, as the current Eurozone crisis is clearly on the mind of the Fed. In Australia, the RBA maintained interest rates at 2.0% and job numbers were better than expected. The ongoing troubles in the Chinese stock markets that go hand in hand with falling commodity prices weighed on the Aussie.
* All times are GMT.
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AUD/USD: Buck Controls Losses, Ignores Lethargic Figures
The greenback managed to limit its early losses after investors assessed the fresh set of macro data in the form of June's retail sales published shortly before the US opening bell.
However, on the daily chart, the AUD/USD cross has remained stuck in a relatively narrow range for the last several days, as the aussie managed to steal some of the greenback's momentum in the fight for the $0.74 level.
On Tuesday, the aussie posted a modest gain of 0.58% to $0.7448 against the buck, while the US dollar index gave up 0.05% to 96.89 points.
Back to fundamentals
"I was speaking to many clients yesterday and there is a shift in focus to more fundamental market drivers," Credit Agricole FX strategist Manuel Oliveri mentioned. To support such a switch, the macro calendar offered several new figures on Tuesday, notably with sluggish retail sales in the US.
Earlier in the morning, the US Census Bureau showed that retail sales dropped 0.3% month-to-month after May's downwardly revised 1% hike. The market survey had bet on a 0.3% rise. When excluding autos, retail sales dropped 0.1%, after the downwardly revised 0.8% growth previously.
Later in the morning, business inventories reached 0.3% in May as expected by analysts, following the 0.4% gain in April.
Meanwhile in Australia, the NAB (National Australia Bank) Business Confidence index rose to 10 in June from a revised 8 in May. Moreover, the NAB Business Conditions index jumped to 11 from a revised 6 seen previously.
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Aussie falls in Asia as investors look ahead to Fed
The Australian dollar eased and the euro fell slightly in Asia Thursday as investors looked ahead to the timing of a likely Federal Reserve rate hike this year as Greece passed a key austerity bill late on Wednesday in a fiery session of parliament.
AUD/USD traded at 0.7376, down 0.05%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 123.81, up 0.04%. EUR/USD traded at 1.0934, down 0.15%.
In New Zealand, second quarter consumer prices rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, well below the 0.6% gain seen and the annual clip came in at a gain of 0.3%, below the 0.4% increase expected.
The outcome is in line with Reserve Bank expectations, though since the last monetary-policy statement the exchange rate has fallen on a trade-weighted basis and is now nearly 7% below where the RBNZ forecast for the current quarter. That hasn't affected the latest CPI figures but will flow through into the next quarter. The Reserve Bank will review the official cash rate July 23 and expectations are for a cut of 25 basis points to 3.0%.
MI Australia inflation expectations see consumer prices at a weighted-mean 2.6% in June compared to 2.3% in the previous survey.
The weighted-mean measure includes inflation expectations between zero and 5% and is closer to the RBA band of 2% to 3%. A rise in expectations is surprising, but are near expectations for inflation to remain within the target band.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.09% to 97.38.
Overnight, the dollar remained broadly higher against a basket of other major currencies on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is on track to raise interest rates "before year end."
In prepared remarks released before her testimony to the House Financial Services committee, Fed Chair Yellen said that the Fed is likely to raise rates "at some point this year." She added that the U.S. labor market healthier but "still some slack."
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