ADP, other disappointing data raise specter of spring U.S. slowdown

 

The ADP jobs report for March is the fifth economic indicator in the past week to disappoint investors with a lower-than-expected reading. Is it a sign the U.S. economy is going to slow down in the spring and early summer for the third year in a row? Maybe, but it’s too soon to tell.

The payroll-processing firm ADP on Wednesday said the private sector generated 158,000 jobs in March, well below the MarketWatch forecast of a 215,000 gain. The pace of hiring was revised up sharply in February, but that tells us little about where the economy is headed in the second quarter of the year.

Three other economic signposts have also suggested some potential trouble ahead. The consumer confidence index for March fell to 59.7% in March from 68.0% in February. Jobless claims shot up above the 350,000 mark last week for the first time in a month and a half. The ISM manufacturing index softened to 51.3% last month from a nearly two-year high of 54.2% in February. The ISM services index of 54.4% certainly wasn’t bad, but it was worse than consensus and the lowest reading since August.

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