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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 2, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is still developing from 119.93. Within the latter wave there also four waves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 developing from 127.25 against the uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78, and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-122.58-119.93, 120.62-127.25-124.20.
Resistances:
- 127.38 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 127.81 = .786 retracement
- 128.30 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.10 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.77-127.25, 120.62-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-124.20-125.21.
Supports:
- 123.94-86 = confluence area of .50 and .618 ret
- 123.33 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.15 = .618 ret
- 122.94 = .786 ret
- 122.16 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (50-70 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 2, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored orange red in the chart), and subwave 4 is developing from 1.0270 against the downtrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0611-1.0270, 1.0752-1.0270.
Resistances:
- 1.0400 = .382 retracement
- 1.0440-54 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 1.0481 = .618 ret
- 1.0511 = .50 ret
- 1.0568 = .618 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0506-1.0611, 1.0611-1.0270-1.0385.
Supports:
- 1.0231 = .382 ret
- 1.0213 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0174 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 ret
- 1.0044 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9967 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 3, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there three waves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C developing from 125.24. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-124.20-125.24.
Supports:
- 123.59 = .50 retracement
- 123.36 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 122.19 = objective point (OP)
- 120.31 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 127.25 - this wave is not developed, so no resistances are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (100-140 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 3, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0427. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0207-1.0427.
Supports:
- 1.0090 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9882 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0427-1.0207, 1.0752-1.0207.
Resistances:
- 1.0291 = .382 ret
- 1.0317 = .50 ret
- 1.0343 = .618 ret
- 1.0415 = .382 ret
- 1.0479 = .50 ret
- 1.0544 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, November, 03/ 2011
European Union decided to postpone the help for Greece, which this time consisted of a section of the plan signed months ago, of 8 billion euros. A logical reaction to the Greek government's decision to consult on a popular approval or not the package signed last week.
However, a statement from the Fed that is slowly changing his views on the future of the U.S. economy gave some optimism to the markets.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke said the central bank may take more stimulus measures, including consideration of the third round of quantitative easing of monetary policy. Despite the acceleration of growth in the third quarter of the year, there are still "significant risks" for the economy and unemployment is still "too high" Bernanke said. The Federal Open Market Committee left the target federal funds rate unchanged at the upper boundary at the level of 0.25%, and also revised downward its economic growth forecast for next year. The forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2012, by contrast, was increased to 8.5% -8.7%, compared with previous estimates of 7.8% -8.2%.
On the other hand, Bernanke added that "we continue to expect a recovery in economic activity and labor market, although it is likely that this process is very slow."
Today will be published the following non-manufacturing index value calculated by the Institute for Supply Management. According to preliminary estimates, the index, which reflects the activity in the area of services, could reach 53.5 in October from 53 in September.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Monthly Analysis, 03 / November, 2011
EUR/USD
According to the elliot wave analysis. in the pair Euro - dollaris developing wave of correction "B" we believe this wave will have its growth to 1.4180, this level coinside with the daily downtrend line that began in April 2011. But now we can buy cautiously because the uncertainty in the markets with a goal to the top of this wave "C", we believe that this wave will have its devel at least until the beginning of 2012 and could drop the price of the euro - dollar to 1.2800, as our goal long term.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 4, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there are two waves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B developing from 123.85. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-123.85.
Resistances:
- 125.55 = .50 retracement
- 125.95 = .618 ret
- 126.52 = .786 ret
If th price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.25.
Supports:
- 123.59 = .50 retracement
- 123.15 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 121.85 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 4, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0291.
Resistances:
- 1.0441 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0534-42 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0684 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445.
Supports:
- 1.0105 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-55 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, November, 04/ 2011
The Greek government reversed the referendum that had come on Tuesday, after verifying that end, a similar measure, is much closer than if you do not. Papandreou and his people finally seem to understand that, although able to put "the ropes" to the European Union, demanding a bailout so definitely threatens to bring down the Euro, the dominant powers are not willing to continue supporting this kind of outrage.
The days go by, Greece runs out of money to pay government salaries and running costs, and only now his government would think that, after all, is not so convenient to have a currency like the Euro, impossible to devalue by local ordinance and impossible to issue its own to continue paying populist policies.
In this regard, there are indeed two points of view: a European interest and have a partner, or just continue to have problems, such as had from the accession of Greece to the euro, through falsified statistics?
We adhere to the second alternative. Looking to the future of the Euro, it seems appropriate that this continue to happen, even though Greece now backed off its threat to leave out the single currency. In any case, the EU has shown an excess of patience with a government that seeks only to win elections, regardless of the consequences worldwide is taking its action. But it also showed an alarmingly slow reflexes.
Quick reflexes, on the other note outstanding on Thursday, the new president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, cut the benchmark interest rate by surprise, in a move expected next month.
The official, speaking with a sober, no ads strangers, and with a heavy dose of realism, debuted resonate well in office markets. And did not miss the opportunity to make the first move in monetary policy, perhaps something demanded by the situation created by Greece.
The Euro reacted to the floor before the rate cut, as was logical, but then, before the day that had the NYSE stocks, returned to a level with rising trend, which was accentuated by the suspension of the Greek referendum.
The remaining coins accompanied the mood of the markets, which was logical swings a day very special. Mario Draghi, said the region is headed for a mild recession.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for November 4, 2011
Wave line pattern analysis:
The ECB decision on its rate and G20 summit contributed to uncertainty of the current wave situation for EUR/USD, though on the whole, a rising correction is developing (in relation to a falling zone shaped October 27 – November 1) as it was expected. Within the framework of the correction the price has already finished a series of abc waves within the limits of a b alleged wave. If this is the case, then the euro may test 36 figure level from its yesterday highs (approximately 1.3930). At the same time it is worth mentioning that the position of indicators allows resuming falling trend and further growth of quotes to the October high.
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Proceeding from the wave line pattern, the situation is unfolding in compliance with the scenario. The rising correction is continuing; it is not recommended to trade it off. Abc waves formed within b wave can suggest that correction is over, that is why from the current rates we can see the declining trend part resuming. So, if this point of view is true, then as soon as the downward trend resumes bearish trading targeted to 1.3482 would be recommended (23.6% Fibonacci). The Stochastic Oscillator position does not support either variant, yet does not deny any as well.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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SILVER Bearish Outlook 1.4250, November 04, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
SILVER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures are trading day today at 34.06 dollars per troy ounce,
According to the technical analysts can see that price is just above the line of the weekly Pivot, we believe you expected to rise to the level of 38.00 this will be confirmed over the weekend if the price closes above 34.00. On the other hand, for the year will be expected to bear the price of silver touches the line of long-term trend, with a target to $ 28.00 per troy ounce.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 4, 2011
4-hour timeframe
Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the yen is still correcting after a growth by over 400 pips on Monday. Nothing has changed during the last few days and thww price is moving in a quite narrow sideways channel. It is also worth mentioning that during a few months after a strong upside move the volatility decreased and the price moves within 50-70 pips during a day. All indicator lines are quite confusing and the movement is obviously a flat one. Therefore we should wait for the movement to stabilize and corresponding signals from indicators to be formed. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways, which indicates the absence of trend and the recommendation to stay out of the market. The MACD is descending, which indicates current local downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to refrain from yen trading due to high-risk unstable movement.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 7, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there are two waves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B developing from 123.85. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-123.85, and expansions off 123.85-125.25-124.55.
Resistances:
- 125.95 = confluence area of .618 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 126.52 = .786 ret
- 126.82 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If th price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63.
Supports:
- 123.59-53 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 122.23 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-55 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 7, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0291.
Resistances:
- 1.0441 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0534-42 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0684 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445, 1.0438-1.0314-1.0426.
Supports:
- 1.0302 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0225 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0105-01 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-70 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com