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AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1063.3
20 Jan 2014 05:38GMT
Despite usd's intra-day breach of 1065.5 to 1065.7, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading be-
low Jan's high at 1071.0 wud continue.
Abv 1065.7 yields re-test of 1071.0 whilst below
1059.5 brings weakness to 1056.7. Stand aside.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES :1065.7/1071.0/1074.2
SUP :1059.5/1056.7/1055.6
AceTraderFx Jan 21 : Euro recovers from a fresh 7-week low in subdued trade
Market Review - 20/01/2014 22:53GMT
Euro recovers from a fresh 7-week low in subdued trade
The single currency recovered from a fresh 7-week low against the dollar as investors closed their bet in subdued trade Monday due to closure of U.S. financial markets for Martin Luther King Day holiday.
Earlier in the day, although euro remained under renewed selling presure at 1.3546 at Monday's Australian open following last Friday's selloff and fell further to a fresh 7-week low of 1.3508 versus the dollar at Asian open, lack of follow- through selling prompted short covering and price later rebounded to 1.3562 in European morning due partly to cross-selling of euro and then edhed marginally higher 1.3568 near European closing before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar was under pressure in Asian trading on the back of falling Nikkei 225 index and price tanked to 103.86 before staging a rebound, dollar climbed back to 104.26 but renewed cross-buying of yen capped intra-day gain there and the pair later dropped back to 103.92 n then traded sideways for rest of the quiet North American session session.
Cable followed euro's move closely in Asia and fell to 1.6396 before climbing back to 1.6452 in European morning, however, renewed selling ahead of last Friday's high of 1.6459 capped intra-day gain and price later retreated to 1.6418 due partly to cross-selling of sterling before moving sideways.
On the data front, report showed that industrial production in Japan fell unexpectedly in November to a seasonally adjusted -0.1%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. A separate report stated that capacity utilization in Japan slipped by seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent month-on-month in November, compared to previous year, capacity utilization fell 2.8 percent.
In commodity currency, although Australian dollar fell initially to a fresh 3-1/2 year low of 0.8756 against the usd in Asian morning, the pair found support after data showed China's economy grew 7.7% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter and rebounded to 0.8821 in European afternoon before easing.
Data to be release on Tuesday:
New Zealand CPI, Germany ZEW survey current situation, survey expectations, U.K. CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, and U.S. IMF economic outlook.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Intra-day Recommendations on USD/JPY
INTRA-DAY Outlook on USD/JPY - 104.52
21 Jan 2014 01:25 GMT
Dlr's present firm breach of Mon's European top at 104.26 strongly suggests early pullback fm last Thur's high at 104.92 has ended y'day at 103.86 n consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain twd 104.66 but 104.92 shud hold in Asia.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Euro trades in a choppy fashion versus dollar after German ZEW
Market Review - 21/01/2014 21:15GMT
Euro trades in a choppy fashion versus dollar after German ZEW
The single currency traded in a choppy fashion against the dollar on Tuesday after release of lower-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment and amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to scale back stimulus measures at next week's policy meeting.
During the day, although euro climbed higher from Asian low of 1.3537 to 1.3562 in European morning, cross-selling of euro versus yen and especially sterling pressured price from there and euro weakened to 1.3517 after a report showed that the ZEW index for German economic sentiment ticked lower in January. Failure to re-test Monday's 7-week low of 1.3508 prompted short-covering, the pair bounced back to 1.3545 in New York morning and then climbed to 1.3569 near New York afternoon before easing. Versus the British pound, euro fell below Jan's low of 0.8231 to a fresh 1-year low of 0.8215 on Tuesday before recovering.
The ZEW Centre for Economic Research said on Monday that its index of German economic sentiment ticked down to 61.7 in January from 62.0 in December. Market had expected an increase to 64.0.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar rose from Australian low of 104.16 to 104.69 in Asia on the back of rally in Nikkei 225 index and then further to 104.75 in European morning, renewed cross-buying of yen pressured price from there and dollar later dropped in New York trading to 104.03 on risk aversion due to the decline in U.S. equity markets.
Cable went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday. Although price rebounded from 1.6408 to 1.6453 in European morning and then briefly weakened to 1.6400 after data showed that British factory orders fell in January, losses were limited as growth in new manufacturing orders was the strongest since April 2011 and cable later rallied above last Friday's high of 1.6459 to a fresh 1-week high of 1.6487 in New York morning, helped by active cross-buying of sterling versus euro before easing.
The Confederation of British Industry said its index of industrial order expectations fell to -2 this month from 12 in December, and below expectations of a reading of 10.
In other news, IMF said on Monday that it 'raises global forecast to 3.7% in 2014 fm 3.6% in Oct, sees 3.9% expansion in 2015; lifts 2014 forecast for advanced economies to 2.2%, seen increasing 2.3% in 2015; keeps 2014 growth forecast unchanged for emerging economies at 5.1%, sees 5.4% growth next year; sees new downside risk of very low inflation in advanced economies, could turn to deflation in negative shock to economic activity; advanced economies still have large output gaps, austerity remains; raises U.S. forecast for this year to 2.8%, expects smaller fiscal drag to boost domestic demand; hikes U.K. growth forecast to 2.4% this year from 1.9%, sees 2.2% growth in 2015; ECB should help repair bank balance sheets, provide targeted lending to boost demand, reduce financial fragmentation; hikes 2014 Japan GDP forecast to 1.7% from Oct's 1.2%, says fiscal stimulus should partly offset drag from higher consumption tax this year; raises China forecast for this year to 7.5%, predicts 7.3% expansion in 2015; China's recent growth driven by temporary investment boost, must do more to move economy away from investment towards consumption; financial conditions in advanced economies eased, but remain tight in emerging markets; stronger growth in India with structural policies to support investment; stronger exports main driver of growth in emerging markets, domestic demand weaker than expected; financial market, capital flow volatility still concern emerging markets, especially as Fed starts to taper.'
Data to be release on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac consumer confidence, CPI, Japan rate decision, all industry index, leading indicators, U.K. MPC minutes, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earnings, PSNCR, public sector Net borrowing, Italy current account, Swiss Zew index, US Redbook retail sales and Canada BOC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Intra-day Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
Intra-day Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
22 Jan 2014 02:07 GMT
INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 104.34
Despite intra-day weakness to 104.16, present reboud suggests further choppy trading wud be seen ahead of BoJ policy announcement n marginal gain fm here can't be ruled out, however, abv 104.48 is needed to bring re-test of y'day's 104.75 high.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2784
22 Jan 2014 06:53GMT
Despite intra-day pullback after Tue's rise to a
fresh 4-mth top of 1.2803, as long as 1.2751/53 sup
holds, gain to 1.2825 is seen after consolidation.
Trade fm long side n exit on upmove as 2013 peak
at 1.2862 shud hold. Below 1.2751 risks 1.2717/20.
AceTraderFx Jan 23 : Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday
Market Review - 22/01/2014 21:38GMT
Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday
The greenback traded mixed against other major rivals on Wednesday as market participants were waiting for more signals whether that Federal Reserve's will reduce its quantitative easing program at the conclusion of its upcoming policy meeting on January 29 to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion.
During the day, the single currency rose to 1.3580 in Asia and then dropped to 1.3535 in European morning due mainly to active cross-selling of euro versus sterling, however, cable's intra-day rally lent support to the single currency and price later rose further to 1.3584 in New York morning before easing.
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar dropped briefly to 103.97 after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged following its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday and maintained its assessment that Japan's economy 'has continued to recover moderately', renewed demand for greenback lifted price sharply higher to 104.57 ahead of European morning and later rose to 104.59 near New York close.
Bank of Japan report stated that 'keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base as annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen; Japan core CPI expected 1.3% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.3% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike in April 2014; Japan core CPI expected 1.9% in FY2015/16 vs. 1.9% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike; BOJ board turns by 8-1 vote a proposal by Kiuchi to make 2 % inflation target a medium- to long-term goal; Japan GDP expected +1.4% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan GDP expected +1.5% FY2015.16 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan's economy recovering moderately with front-loaded increase in demand prior to sale tax hike being observed; Japan annual CPI growth likely to move around 1 to 1.5% for time being.'
The British pound rallied against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed that the rate of unemployment in the U.K. fell to 7.1% in November. During the day, although cable retreated after marginal gain above Tuesday's high of 1.6387 to 1.6492 in Asia, price found support at 1.6451 in European morning and surged sharply to 1.6553 due to a 'surprise' sharp drop in U.K. unemployment and BoE MPC vote outcome . Later, cable rose further to 1.6588 in New York morning before easing.
BoE showed MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 billion pounds and voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%. BoE said in the statement that 'It was now likely that the unemployment rate would reach the 7% threshold materially earlier than previously expected," the minutes said, but officials "saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate," the bank’s benchmark interest rate, "even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future.'
On the data front, the ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits in U.K. fell by 24,000 in December, compared to expectations for a decline of 32,000.
In the other news, Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold at 1.00% and said 'downside risks to inflation have grown in importance; direction of next rate move to depend on data; sees inflation path lower than previous expected but still returning to the 2% target in about two years; stronger U.S. demand, recent C$ fall should help exports, business investment; no sign yet of rebalancing to export - and investment-led growth; fundamental drivers of growth and future inflation appear to be strengthening; output cap has shrunk by 1/4 point from Oct report to between 3/4% and 1-3/4%; sees soft landing in housing market; household debt/disposable income ratio to stabilize; risks from elevated household imbalances haven't materially changed; sees 2.5% growth in 2014 (prev. 2.3%) and in 2015 (prev. 2.6%); Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 2.5% (prev. 2.3%); core and total inflation to remain around 1% in H1 2014; total CPI at 0.9% Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 (prev. 1.3% and 1.2%); despite C$ depreciation, C$ remains strong and will continue to pose competitiveness challenges for non-commodity exports; C$ depreciation reflects improved U.S. growth prospects and reduced safe-haven effects; C$ depreciation will exert upward pressure on inflation.'
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand business manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan BOJ monthly economic report, France business climate, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU current account, manufacturing PMI, service PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, Canada retail sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, jobless claims, markit PMI, house price, US existing home sales and leading index.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3535
23 Jan 2014 00:41 GMT
Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3584, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery from Monday's 7-week low at 1.3508 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid trough, break would extend corrective decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 towards support at 1.3455/60, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and yield a correction later next week.
On the upside, only above 1.3584 would indicate a temporary low has been made there and bring stronger retracement of said fall to 1.3603.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2823
23 Jan 2014 06:57GMT
Usd's breach of y'day's 1.2803 high confirms MT
upmove has resumed n further gain to 1.2850/55 wud
be seen but res 1.2862 shud remain intact.
Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, below
wud signal temp. top has made n risk 1.2751.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2795
OBJECTIVE : 1.2755
STOP-LOSS : 1.2770
RES : 1.2839/1.2862/1.2900
SUP : 1.2771/1.2751/1.2709
AceTraderFx Jan 24: Euro rallies on Thursday as QE from ECB diminishes after data
Market Review - 23/01/2014 21:52GMT
Euro rallies on Thursday as QE from ECB diminishes after data
The single currency strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as expectations for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank diminished after stronger-than-expected data on euro zone private sector activity.
During the day, although euro traded sideways after retreating from Wednesday's high of 1.3584 to 1.3530 at Asian open, price jumped sharply to 1.3647 in European morning as data showed recovery in the euro area is strengthening due to a larger than expected increase in euro zone private sector activity this month. Later, euro rose further to 1.3685 in New York morning after the number of continuing jobless claims in U.S. remained above the three million mark for the second successive week before easing. Price extended gain to 1.3699 near New York close due to the sell off in global stock markets.
Market reported on Thursday that the euro zone’s composite output index rose to a 31-month high of 53.2 in January, up from a final reading of 52.1 in December, as growth picked up in Germany and the rate of decline eased in France. A separate report showed Germany's Manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in January , record at 56.3 versus 54.3 in previous month.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's initial bounce to 104.84 shortly after Asian opening, price came under pressure and retreated to 104.21 in European morning on declining Nikkei 225 index. The greenback later met another round of selling in part due to active cross-buying of yen and dropped to 103.49 in New York morning on poor U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing PMI data. The pair weakened further to 102.97 in near New York close due to the sell off in global stock markets.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 326,000, up from the previous week's revised total of 325,000. The number of people filing continuing unemployment claims rose to 3.056 million up from 3.022 million in the week to January 11. Another report showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI declined to 53.7 this month from a final reading of 55.0 in December.
Cable rose in tandem with euro on Thursday after finding support at 1.6557 in Asia and price then penetrated previous high of 1.6605 (January 2nd) to a fresh 2-year peak of 1.6637 in New York morning n then 1.6644 near NY close on dollar's broad based weakness.
In other news, BoE's Fisher said on Thursday that 'output growing too slow to support rapid real wage rise and big fall in unemployment; inflation pressures diminishing but strong GDP growth not guaranteed; no immediate need to tighten when unemployment falls to 7%, must allow economy to grow strongly for some time; "still some way off" from raising interest rates, MPC must avoid choking off recovery.'
Data to be release on Friday:
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals and Canada CPI.