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Greetings Forex Friends!
After spending about half a week on the drawing board, I've found something that seems to work in Excel. Gonna try my hand at coding this sometime today.
I manually charted sixteen trades on USDCAD H1 chart between the end of June and the end of August 2011. Results were $6,615 profit (trading 1 lot at time).
Based on the data I collected, it looks like this strategy will win half the time and lose half the time, but losses seem more or less limited and it's very good at picking major price moves that yield $1,000's.
Using a 144 bar moving average ("long term trend") and a 24 bar bollinger band with 2 for deviation:
If last long term trend move < 20 points then play the "bollinger bounce" game:
Go Long if price hits bottom band below the long term trend and liquidate at top band
Go Short if price hits top band above the long term trend and liquidate at bottom band
If both trends are up by 20 points or more then go long until either trend turns down
If both trends are down by 20 points or more then go short until either trend turns up
Have fun!