Survey #4 .... Smart Business Move or Not?
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So I'd just created a mechanical system which shows results below. IMO after a year at this, I'm convinced that something like this would come much closer to a black-box (grail) system than anything in the fully-automated robot class. I'm not saying that this is the BEST method to trading. As IMO opinion, the BEST approaches would involve some form of semi-automated trading.
I'm aware that most criticism would come from mostly the draw-down and limited time presented here. The purpose of this post is to ask a business question and get a feel from others. Ok, so I'm a bit of a risk taker and if I can get the dd to about 20-30% I'd have no problem employing such a system because I know how it works.
However, I don't wanna take all the risk alone. I've noticed that most developers would sell a limited copy of the EA to generate the capital. I don't like that Idea much. What I'm proposing is, I'll sell you signals for about $20 one time charge. The signals is what you purchase, as that what I'm obligated to provide to you. But here's the big idea, should 100 other people purchase, I'll throw that into an account. The system will trade it and if the account size triples then everyone who purchased gets $40 back. I wanna encourage people by keeping the cost low. But someone could purchase multiple copies if they wish.
-So what do you guys think of my idea, Pass or Fail?
-Is 20$ too high, low or just right?
-Does this put me in the class of money-manager and I'll have to deal with laws surrounding that? I really wanna avoid that.
-Maybe you could buy into something like this if the #'s were better?
-Oh, I had this question for a while now: would you trade a winning system in the automated trading championship. Risk here is others might figure out what you're doing?
Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2009.01.02 06:55 - 2009.12.30 23:55 (2009.01.01 - 2009.12.31)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Bars in test 74639 Ticks modelled 22964682 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 35725.33 Gross profit 127964.62 Gross loss -92239.29
Profit factor 1.39 Expected payoff 18.26
Absolute drawdown 3697.34 Maximal drawdown 13040.21 (29.34%) Relative drawdown 64.50% (11449.92)
Total trades 1956 Short positions (won %) 984 (54.98%) Long positions (won %) 972 (58.95%)
Profit trades (% of total) 1114 (56.95%) Loss trades (% of total) 842 (43.05%)
Largest profit trade 4823.60 loss trade -4413.97
Average profit trade 114.87 loss trade -109.55
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 8 (306.00) consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-13304.13)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 10072.00 (4) consecutive loss (count of losses) -13304.13 (4)
Average consecutive wins 2 consecutive losses 1
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2010.01.03 23:00 - 2010.12.30 23:55 (2010.01.01 - 2010.12.31)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Bars in test 74387 Ticks modelled 1051714 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 18349.62 Gross profit 74018.48 Gross loss -55668.86
Profit factor 1.33 Expected payoff 11.72
Absolute drawdown 833.71 Maximal drawdown 10821.46 (49.88%) Relative drawdown 49.88% (10821.46)
Total trades 1566 Short positions (won %) 790 (51.39%) Long positions (won %) 776 (49.36%)
Profit trades (% of total) 789 (50.38%) Loss trades (% of total) 777 (49.62%)
Largest profit trade 3010.43 loss trade -1198.78
Average profit trade 93.81 loss trade -71.65
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 9 (321.70) consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-198.89)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 3010.43 (1) consecutive loss (count of losses) -1265.97 (2)
Average consecutive wins 2 consecutive losses 2
Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 5 Minutes (M5) 2008.01.01 22:00 - 2008.12.30 23:55 (2008.01.01 - 2008.12.31)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Bars in test 74373 Ticks modelled 1045847 Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 30207.37 Gross profit 147032.19 Gross loss -116824.82
Profit factor 1.26 Expected payoff 11.52
Absolute drawdown 7041.80 Maximal drawdown 14129.31 (51.53%) Relative drawdown 81.12% (12709.79)
Total trades 2622 Short positions (won %) 1298 (48.69%) Long positions (won %) 1324 (50.23%)
Profit trades (% of total) 1297 (49.47%) Loss trades (% of total) 1325 (50.53%)
Largest profit trade 7168.00 loss trade -2176.00
Average profit trade 113.36 loss trade -88.17
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 8 (358.00) consecutive losses (loss in money) 5 (-281.48)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 7201.00 (2) consecutive loss (count of losses) -2176.00 (1)
Average consecutive wins 2 consecutive losses 2