Francesco Sgarbossa / Profil

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The impact of quantitative easing in the markets was felt, especially creating volatility in the bond markets. We have seen implications on the euro dropped to minimum levels against the dollar, but also against other currencies.

The intent is to bring inflation back to the level of 2%, and the policy of the ECB will not stop until that moment.

Returning to the euro, in addition to the interventions of the ECB to keep low prices of the euro against the dollar is the intention of the Fed to raise rates in the second half of the year.

There is a belief that the EUR/USD can achieve parity

Is about to end a week of optimistic data, the price of crude Brent descending is increasingly seen as a signal of recovery as fear of deflation. The depreciation of the euro is seen as towing exports. We are also on the eve of the activities of Quantitative Easing in the euro.
The staff of the ECB took into account the above has seen upward growth expectations. Forecasts consumer prices in March give a turnaround, the price decline is slowing. So positive macro data and the purchasing policy of the ECB gave a wave of optimism to the markets in the euro area.
In the slope of the currencies, the imminent launch scheduled for next week of purchases of the ECB has weakened the single European currency, while USD strengthened by macro data and the prospects of rising interest rates, and falling euro not only USD but also against GBP and JPY.

The focus of the market has shifted from the ECB decision on "Quantitative Qasing" to the situation in Greece .
Greece essentially does not want to renew the plan bailouts expiring February 28 , proposing a program " bridge " of three months to renegotiate the terms on the debt .
The week began with a cautious optimism about the possibility that they can come to accept the terms offered by the new head of government greek . A mid-week , however, the change of mood: The ECB has decided to no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral , as this is no longer willing to comply with the conditions imposed .
This means that Greek banks to apply for funding to the ECB will be forced to leave as collateral securities other . The situation is very complex .
The macro data this week have reported data on the increase , but certainly not sufficiently reassuring .
The United Kingdom and the United States seem to move with speed much higher than the euro area , but this is nothing new .
As for the currency market , the euro after reaching lows before the decisions of the ECB , has consolidated the positions reached and then report increases in the last week .
Only the pound has appreciated against the euro .

The ECB has finally unveiled the cards of his plan of QE: it will be purchased € 60 billion of securities and will also purchased government bonds (investment grade only). Any losses will be borne mainly of central banks.
The plan will began in March of this year and will end in September 2016, but Draghi noted that if there is no positive signs of recovery from inflation the purchases will continuing beyond.
Be listed on the week though the decision of two central banks (after the Swiss) to offset the strong reduction in oil prices and the decisions ultra expansionary ECB Canada and Denmark have decided to cut interest rates.
Even the Bank of Japan, since the estimates slightly comforting about inflation, decided to continue with the plan of purchases of government bonds.
As for the macro data released during the week, we highlight the positive data (ZEW) in Germany and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI.
The Euro in a week reported new lows and touched 1,11 against the dollar.

Yesterday, the Swiss central bank has decided not to hold the fixed level "floor" of the CHF exchange rate to EUR @ 1.20.
This decision was made, by reading the press, because it is considered that "there is no more risk" of overvaluation of the Swiss franc and "the economy appears to have adjusted. "
Simultaneously, the Swiss Central Bank has cut rates (already negative) of half a percentage point (leading them to -0.75%).
These decisoni take place on the eve of two important events expected next week that will mark strongly the dynamics of the markets:
the decision by the ECB to counter deflation in the Eurozone and the vote in Greece.
And 'likely that the rate cut in Switzerland serves to discourage capital flight to the CHF after the victory of the opposition in Greece (anti euro) and after that the ECB will announce want contraste deflation in Europe with a massive purchase
of government securities.

The effects on currency markets have obviously seen immediately. The Swiss franc rose against all currencies showing mean changes of 30%, and settling in late evening at levels vaziazioni merdie 15%.

Who was positioned short of the Swiss franc against USD, GBP and YEN saw (at best) triggers the stop loss on the positions themselves. The levels of volatility achieved have created situations decidedly unpleasant to many brokers (just now came the news that some brokers have led for bankruptcy in court because dell'impossbilità coverage of many closed positions).

Many traders are definitely skipped (jump means not just going to go in heavy losses of the portfolio but clear all them uidity available) and perhaps also to have incurred losses exceed their financial possibility (because there are many who on the forex market levers work with very high).

Returning to the macro data: data on produzine Udyog euro area continue to push the euro to a minimum in contronti of all currencies, year to date, the euro has lost 18% against the Swiss franc (this only yesterday ), 7% against the yen

(which until yesterday was seen as a safe haven since the fixed exchange rate with the euro with the Swiss franc); 4% against the dollar and 1.6% against sterling.

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