Pitt Petruschke / 프로필
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The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, made its first rate cut since December 2024. The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by **25 basis points to a range of 4.00–4.25%**. Powell emphasized that monetary policy remains restrictive but is gradually moving toward a neutral stance.
### Key Messages
* **Labor Market**: Job growth is slowing, unemployment has edged up slightly, and wage gains are moderating but remain above inflation in many sectors.
* **Inflation**: Price pressures are still above the Fed’s 2% target. Tariffs are contributing to higher goods prices, though Powell described these increases as mostly one-time effects rather than a persistent inflationary trend.
* **Policy Path**: There was no support within the Fed for a larger 50 bps cut. Powell stressed that future decisions will depend on incoming data rather than a preset path.
* **Institutional Changes**: The Fed will reduce its staff by about 10%, bringing employment back to levels from roughly a decade ago.
### Market Implications
* **US Dollar**: At risk of weakening if the Fed eases while other central banks remain tight.
* **Bonds**: Yields, especially on the short end, are likely to move lower as policy shifts.
* **Equities**: Interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities could benefit from lower borrowing costs.
* **Inflation Trades**: Traders should monitor whether tariff-driven price pressures fade or become more persistent.
### What to Watch Next
* Upcoming US labor market reports: job creation, unemployment, and wage growth.
* Core inflation data and the impact of tariffs on goods prices.
* Fed speeches and updates to the “dot plot” projections.
---
**Conclusion**
Powell’s message was cautious. Inflation risks remain, but a cooling labor market is now a major concern. The Fed is signaling flexibility, ready to adjust policy as needed. For traders, the balance between inflation and employment data will be the key driver of market direction in the months ahead.
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