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USDJPY and the bank of the rising sun
Recent data from the Fed and the BOJ suggests a tempest is brewing for USDJPY.

The latest reports show that the balance between US inflation and employment is swaying unpredictably and retail sales are not keeping pace.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) has surged to a three-month high, fueled by optimism about corporate profits. Recent labor negotiations have also shown promise, with some major companies offering solid pay hikes, potentially reversing years of wage stagnation.

Additionally, a recent revision of economic data revealed that capital spending grew more than previously estimated, hinting at increased business investment. But does Japan’s growth compare to America’s publicized strength?

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BRICS expands and USD gets squeezed

BRICS have just entered the expansion phase, and traders would be wise to keep their eyes on USD as the speculation unfolds. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to assume BRICS might eventually lead to de-dollarization, after all, it’s the unwritten goal of the alliance – to be able to trade with other nations without the need for USD.

The implication is that the larger the BRICS group gets, the more USD weakens as a global reserve currency. And now we see not one or two countries applying for membership, we see 30 countries joining the fledgling energy empire. Traders can’t buy BRICS stock, but they can short USD pairs.

Is that a good idea?
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What to trade: The 2024 big picture

2024 is a particularly tough year for forecasting. Never before have we seen such a combination of global elections, political tensions, and conflict adding to the burden that the pandemic left behind.

Gold is off the charts, Bitcoin is in the clouds, oil is anyone’s guess, and currencies are breaking patterns and not responding to fundamentals as expected. Meanwhile, stocks are being pushed by sentiment alone, with unexplainable highs and exaggerated and rapid fall. Even the most experienced traders might feel the need to step back and reevaluate 2024.

This article aims to help you build a foundation from which you can plan your 2024 trading portfolio.
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What’s really happening in the financial market?

In this article, we will cover Exness opinions alongside reporting from Barron’s, which is a commercial partner of Exness.

Are you getting mixed feelings about trading right now? Bitcoin is on the move again, and everyone seems to think this is just the beginning. After all, the BlackRock ETF is now piping institutional money into the crypto space, and central banks all over the world are struggling to paint a rosy picture for 2024. Is it any wonder that big investors might be seeing BTC as a haven to park their wealth? Moreover, the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) messaging is now circulating the world and prompting traders to buy at a high.

And then there’s gold, making a second push toward $2200 (USD) as the Fed and several central banks continue to give gloomy forecasts for 2024. No matter where you look in the world, there’s a struggle going on. It feels like we’re all avoiding the obvious and somebody needs to say it.

America is drowning in debt and political discord, and the UK has already crumbled and fallen into a deep recession. The rock-solid nation of Germany is failing along with many other EU countries, and even China can’t hide its downward trajectory anymore. It all sounds like global financial misery is around the corner, but that’s not a fair outlook if you are a serious trader. Traders can profit from economic weakness.

For example, if a large investor or hedge fund suspects an imminent global financial market collapse, they might indeed move assets into gold and bitcoin, as these are viewed as stores of value outside the traditional financial system. That’s how big investors will keep their wealth protected, but there will be some investors who might actually profit from the potential doom.

Cyclic equities are highly sensitive to economic instability. While they often perform well during an economic expansion, be prepared for significant declines during a downturn. Automotive, travel, luxury goods, and technology may present shorting opportunities in the coming weeks and months.

Speculative assets or industries that have been heavily inflated in value without strong fundamental backing (typically tech startups or unproven technologies) could be a risky ‘long’ too.

Company stocks attached to weak balance sheets, high debt, poor cash flows, or inefficient operations are at higher risk, and if/when they weaken, entire indices can falter. Ask yourself which big brand companies are struggling already. If a crash occurs, those will be the ones to watch.

If you just want to protect your wealth, then gold and BTC might be worth investigating, but if a storm is coming, will you want to be safe or profitable? Before you start buying gold and bitcoin, have a read of this excellent article published by Barron’s.

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Don’t be fooled by Nvidia stock split speculation

There is a lot of speculation within the financial world as to whether Nvidia will announce a coming stock split. Is it likely to happen and how might the price react? Let’s unpack Nvidia and see if there is some truth behind the stock split hype.

Will Nvidia stock split this year?
First of all, as of 29 February 2024, there is no official announcement from Nvidia regarding a potential stock split. Headline hypes are circulating because Nvidia has a history of stock splits. The last one occurred at $751 on July 19, 2021.

Splitting is said to make shares accessible to more retail investors, as the lower share price can entice those who might not be able to afford whole shares at the pre-split price. That’s the official line that everyone is using, but it’s not the most convincing of explanations.

Do you think NVIDIA Corp, a $1.9B market cap company would split its shares so people who can’t afford to invest $780 will instead be able to buy a fraction of an NVDA share?

But this doesn’t mean you should avoid trading NVDA. Nvidia is at the forefront of the AI evolution and the future looks brighter than ever for the California-based company. Moreover, there are plenty of other reasons for Nvidia to split NVDA. Even the current fragility of the economy supports an Nvidia stock split.

So, yes, while the current split hype is unfounded, it might still come true. So what if it does?

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Guide to backtesting: what every trader should be doing

When uncertainty is rampant and markets fluctuate wildly, smart traders leverage every tool and strategy at their disposal. Backtesting is a powerful and advantageous activity that is often overlooked by traders, despite claims that it can effectively guide the user by harnessing historical data in a more active way.

Is backtesting right for you? What are the benefits?

Let’s find out more here: https://bit.ly/3ZjNVsO

Exness celebrates global recognition as a Best Place to Work in 2024

Exness, the largest retail broker in the world by trading volume, has been honored with a Best Place to Work certificate for 2024, thanks to its outstanding work environment and high employee satisfaction levels. This global recognition is a crowning achievement following three consecutive years of obtaining the certificate in Cyprus, from 2021 until 2023.

The awarded certificate is based on a rigorous evaluation focusing on a multi-disciplinary range of criteria such as leadership, growth, opportunities, and HR practices. Exness aced various key areas, including career progression, culture of engagement, and talent strategy, with 97% of employees acknowledging it as an exceptional employer. 91% of respondents also expressed a likelihood to recommend Exness as an employer of choice.

Testimonials from employees highlight Exness's unique culture, emphasizing its employees’ well-being and job satisfaction. “The company always thrives on providing better work and life quality,” a survey respondent expressed. At the same time, another commented that at Exness, “fairness and equality are paramount.” “It’s a team that values collaboration, innovation, and inclusivity” and a “supportive culture that sets it apart.”

Fuad Karimov, Exness Chief People Officer, remarked, “This global acknowledgment from a world-reputed program such as Best Places to Work is a stamp of approval for every strategic decision we make to create a nurturing and dynamic work environment. We truly understand the importance of investing in our people, as they are the cornerstone of our success. This certification will fuel our efforts to not only maintain our workplace standards but also innovate with new ideas for employee engagement, development, and satisfaction.”

Exness’ commitment to continuous learning, personalized development plans, and opportunities for advancement empowers employees to achieve excellence. Moreover, Exness' comprehensive benefits package, including company cars (for over 1000 Cyprus employees), in-house gyms, corporate doctors, and a flexible work model, establishes its status as a leading employer.

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The 2024 US economy

In this article, we will cover Exness opinions alongside reporting from The Wall Street Journal, a commercial partner of Exness.

If you read and watch as much financial news as I do, you’ve probably noticed a subtle change in the mainstream media’s messaging. The narrative has shifted from 2023’s ‘bullish all the way’ to bearish questions being asked daily. Could it be that the Fed will soon be in a position to reveal the real state of the US economy?

We know that growth is slowing, inflation lingers, and geopolitical storms brew on the horizon. The US economic ship isn't sinking just yet, but it is showing signs of engine trouble. Gone are the roaring 2023 days of breakneck growth making headlines. Instead, experts predict an expansion range from 0.8% to 2.9%, and some analysts are even whispering the dreaded "R" word: recession.

While inflation is expected to remain well above the Fed's preferred 2% target, its grip should loosen a little as supply chains untangle and the Fed's interest rate hikes take effect. Speaking of the Fed, they're trying to steer us clear of inflationary rocks and all they have at their disposal is interest rate hikes. After watching a year of hikes do nothing significantly, These measures are meant to slow down borrowing and spending, ultimately taming the inflation beast, but they are clearly less than effective and are now in question.

Whenever US data gets released, be sure to listen to analyst interpretations from all around the world to limit bias and undisclosed media agendas. Stick to legitimate publications that are not afraid to say it how it really is. One great example was recently published by the Wall Street Journal and it can be found below.

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Which companies will survive the 2020s?
On 26 January 2024, the iconic tech giant Intel watched its stock (INTC) plummet 12.90% from $49.45 (USD) to $43.07 in less than two hours. The explanation for this crash was that Intel had delivered a disappointing sales outlook for its current quarter. The company lowered revenue expectations by 3.4% from $19.5 billion to $19.2 billion.

In the following days, that revised revenue projection reduced Intel’s market cap by $56.28 billion. That’s all it took — changing its revenue projection.

Interestingly, rival NVIDIA Corp also revised revenue expectations down by 3.6%, more than Intel, yet NVDA stock has consistently stayed bullish throughout the first quarter.

Some might say this is because NVIDIA’s AI is leading the tech world into a new era. Meanwhile, Intel is perhaps just treading water, busy making smaller chips that are still way bigger than IBM’s and microarchitecture that barely keeps up with its competitors. One seems to have a future, and the other does not.

In a nutshell, a long-term company outlook has made a conglomerate hyper-sensitive to short-term signals. This brings us to the question: which big names will weather the coming storms of the 2020s, and which will sink at the first sign of trouble?

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Fundamental vs technical analysis: spotlight on gold

Some traders check the news first while others go straight to the charts. In this article, experts in fundamental analysis and technical analysis go head to head on the future of gold prices.

Gold’s crossroads
With gold prices experiencing a downward trend due to a stronger dollar fueled by robust US economic data, the question arises: will this weakness persist, or can we anticipate a rebound?

While technical analysis suggests a long-term bullish trend, fundamental factors, particularly disinflation trends, require more conviction. Let's explore gold's chart to better understand its movements.

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The yield curve as a leading indicator

If you have financial news running in the background all day, you’ve probably heard analysts talking about the yield curve. Let’s explore the yield curve as a leading indicator and see if it can help traders forecast the US economy and consequently US assets such as stocks and USD.
What is a yield curve?
The yield curve is a graph that plots the yields (interest rates) of bonds with differing maturity dates, typically US Treasuries. Under normal circumstances, this curve slopes upward, reflecting higher yields for bonds with longer maturities. This is based on the premise that investors require more compensation (higher yield) for tying up their money for an extended period, given the greater uncertainty and inflation risk.

Here’s how a healthy yield curve should look.
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10 common questions about Jerome Powell and the Fed

The US economy's stability is central to global financial health, making Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's announcements pivotal events for traders of all asset classes. Powell's speeches often lead to fierce speculation and debate, and here are ten popular questions being asked right now.

Let’s get into it here: https://bit.ly/3ZjNVsO

Chart patterns: do they really indicate future price moves?

When it comes to technical analysis, chart patterns are said to offer traders a glimpse into the future course of an asset's price. Patterns such as head and shoulders, double bottoms, wedges, and triangles have long captivated traders' minds, promising to unlock the secrets of market behavior and guide informed trading decisions.

In some cases, traders believe them to be reliable indicators, and plenty of performance percentage claims online support that assumption. A study by Michael Kahn indicated that chart patterns exhibit a degree of accuracy in predicting price reversals, attributing an 89% success rate to the head and shoulder pattern.

Such an advantage would give any trader an abundance of profit over time, but is that optimistic percentage accurate? Do chart patterns really indicate coming price directions?

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Volatility: a guide to 2024 trading

In this article, we will cover Exness opinions alongside reporting from Barron’s, which is a commercial partner of Exness.

Market uncertainty can cause paralysis for even the most experienced traders, but it also puts analysts and journalists in a position where giving valuable information becomes tricky. Volatility can send the news bullish today and bearish tomorrow. And if you are late to the party, it could cost you dearly.

Learning how to navigate 2024 volatility is a must that requires some investigation and research. With that in mind, have a read of this superb analysis and strategy by Barron’s, and plan to use volatility to your benefit in the coming year.

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Fundamental vs technical analysis: spotlight on DXY

When it comes to forecasting, some check the news first and others go straight to the charts. In this article, experts in fundamental analysis and technical analysis go head to head on the future of DXY.

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An introduction to algorithmic trading with Python and MT5:

The world of algorithmic trading can seem daunting, especially for those who aren't tech-savvy. However, the advent of user-friendly tools like Python, a versatile programming language, and MetaTrader 5, a leading trading platform, are changing the game. This article is for non-IT experts curious about stepping into algorithmic trading.

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Exness takes its brand to the next level as it marks 15 years of unprecedented growth

Exness, the world’s largest retail market-maker, has unveiled a significant rebranding initiative, reflecting and reinforcing its position as the market leader. Through a revamped visual identity, Exness turns the spotlight on the very values that helped it reach the top.

Featuring a new logo, defined by the distinctive exo emblem, the rebranding speaks to a sleeker, more modern design. Inspired by Exness’ recognizable initials, ‘e’ and ‘x,’ the exo embodies a fusion of head and heart, the mathematical and the human. These are the pillars which speak to Exness’ brand story and define the way it conducts business.

Carrying the legacy of the old logo, the exo also serves as a visual anchor, connecting the broker’s past achievements with its future vision, in this way honouring its legacy to forge its future. The brand’s font and colour palette have also undergone a makeover, featuring a more modern font and a brighter, bolder yellow.

Alfonso Cardalda, Exness Chief Marketing Officer, commented, “At Exness, we believe that ‘good enough’ is not enough. This rebranding goes beyond aesthetics. Our new brand offers a nod to where we’ve come from and a promise that our values remain the same while we take bold new steps into the future. As companies evolve, so must their brand. It’s time for our brand to evolve and reflect who we are in the market. It’s time to take our identity to the next level, to show the world why we’re different from the rest and how we got this far.”

Launched on the cusp of Exness’ spectacular 15-year celebrations, the rebranding aligns with the broker’s remarkable achievements to date, including a monthly trading volume of up to $4.8 trillion, a headcount of over 2000 employees, and a total of more than 700,000 active clients and 64,000 partners. These milestones highlight Exness’ enduring commitment to setting industry standards and reinforcing its status as the market leader.

“We’ve raised the bar in the trading industry, now we’re upping our game as a brand. As we usher this new era in, we will continue to reimagine the markets the way they should be, we will continue breaking records and we will continue to be wholeheartedly committed to our people — clients, partners and employees.” Cardalda added.

The updated branding will be rolled out across all Exness platforms in the coming weeks. The company assures a seamless transition, maintaining its high standard of service and support for all clients and partners.

Visit Exness for more details on how it’s taking its brand to the next level: https://bit.ly/Introducing-the-next-level-of-exness

About Exness

Exness is a global multi-asset broker which uses a unique combination of technology and ethics to create a favorable market for traders and raise the industry benchmark. Its ethos and vision revolve around the concept of offering its clients a frictionless trading experience, by bringing to life the financial markets in the way they should be experienced. Exness' identity and commitment to the two worlds of technology and ethics, as well as its loyal client base which counts 700,000 active traders, are key drivers of the global brand. Today, Exness records up to $4.8 trillion in monthly trading volume and has set its focus on strategic expansion to new corners of the world.

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Natural gas: buy, sell, or avoid?

In this article, we will cover Exness opinions alongside reporting from The Wall Street Journal, a commercial partner of Exness.

In 2022, natural gas prices soared to record highs of $9.12 (USD) per million British thermal units (MMBtu). It was a time of intense demand and tight supply. But then, in 2023, something unexpected happened. Prices plummeted. Why?

First, let's talk about the weather. Our sun has a cycle of approximately 11 years, during which its activity affects our climate. The solar cycle begins with a period of low activity, called the solar minimum, progressing to a period of high solar activity, the solar maximum. We will experience the peak of the solar maximum throughout 2024 and 2025.

Add to that El Niño 2024, a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes the Pacific Ocean to become warmer than usual.

Find out why here: https://bit.ly/3ZjNVsO

Two stocks to watch: week 3, 2024

As week 4 gets underway, two stocks stand out with brimming potential. Here’s a technical breakdown of GOOGL and AMD.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Shares of Alphabet Inc. rose by around 4% in the last quarter of the year. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending December 2023 is expected to be released on 30 January, after market close. The consensus EPS forecast is $1.60, compared to $1.05 (USD) in the same quarter last year.

The company is involved in the AI frenzy with the introduction of Google Bard and Gemini as tools to compete with OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT. Notably, on the date of Gemini's launch (6th December), the share price experienced a bullish gap of around 6%. Beyond launching these new products, the tech giant also boasts a solid financial position. The total assets exceed total liabilities with an impressive ratio of 3:1, and the current ratio is a remarkable 204%, indicating a strong balance sheet to navigate any short-term challenges.

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Charting Success: How the Pros Navigate Risk and Build Smarter Trade Positions

Exness Team Pro tells how they've managed to achieve financial stability, purpose and fulfillment from their trading careers.
Read the full article, brought to you by Exness on Bloomberg,

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