Sergey Golubev / Profilo

USDJPY Tachnical Analysis

Bigger than Libor? Forex probe hangs over banks

A global investigation into forex trading abuses is the latest legal headache for the banking industry.
The [forex and Libor] benchmarks have a knock-on effect to all of these other markets," Kovel said. Assistant professor of law at Wake Forest University Andrew Verstein agrees.

Gold is NOW at our price level (based on forexminute.com article)

We argue for you to consider buying a small position in Gold at this panic low.
If you don’t know by now, panic lows in Gold do not last long.

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Good morning

The European Central Bank is considering a smaller-than-normal cut in the deposit rate if officials decide to take it negative for the first time, according to two people with knowledge of the debate.
read more here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/ecb-said-to-consider-mini-deposit-rate-cut-if-more-easing-needed.html

Forex Brokers (adapted from "Is Switching Brokers Ever a Good Idea?" article by dailyforex.com)

1. Most Forex brokers are not actually exchanging any currency on the market. They are simply providing a price feed, the movements of which their clients are allowed to bet on in exchange for two effective fees: the spread or commission, and a small overnight charge that is incurred every night any position is left open. These brokers are in adversarial relationships with their clients: they make money when their clients lose, and lose money when their clients win.

2. The remaining Forex brokers tend to monitor the trades of their clients that have records of trading profitably, and cover the aggregate positions of these traders with a bank. These brokers have a less adversarial relationship with their clients, but still can face problems in adequately covering themselves in fast-moving markets.

3. The real Forex market is dominated by four large banks that together make up about 85% of the market’s volume.

4. Much of the Forex industry has a bad reputation and is poorly regulated.

上证指数周三收盘上涨0.62%，深成指数上涨0.58%

33 pips price movement by RBA Meeting Minutes

Increasing Your Probabilities in Break-Out Trades (source - dailyforex.com)

If you are new to day trading or have been in these markets for a long period of time, one this is clear: You have been exposed to the term “break-out” as a major market occurrence and a potential opportunity to see significant market gains. Break-outs signify important changes in market sentiment, and this could happen for a variety of reasons. Perhaps an important news release of piece of economic data has changed the market’s perceived value of an asset. This can be represented visually on a price chart, as the underlying activity literally “breaks through” important levels of support or resistance. A break of support would be a bearish break-out. A break of resistance would signify a bullish break-out is in place.

Watching Market Volumes

“Once we have an understanding of the mechanics of a forex trading breakout,” said Haris Constantinou, currency analyst at TeleTrade, “we next need to learn how to increase the probabilities in these trades so that we can maximize gains relative to the market majority.” One way of doing this is to look at market volumes as these support or resistance breaks occur. If trading volumes are low, it is a signal that a majority of the market is not behind the breakout move and that there is a possibility of a false break. Because of this, it is generally prudent to wait for breakouts that are accompanied by higher trading volumes. Higher trading volumes will show you that a majority of the investment community is in favor of the direction in which prices are moving. This is a better indication that prices will continue in this direction in the future. Without this confirmation, the probabilities for a successful trade are lower.

Watching for Follow-through

In addition to this, forex breakout traders that tend to be successful will also be looking increased volatility (follow-through) after the breakout occurs. After a significant break of support or resistance, follow through will depend on increases in volatility which are usually generated by stop losses that were put in place by traders on the wrong side of the break. So, for example, traders that were bearish when an upside break-out occurs will ultimately be forced to exit those positions. These bearish trades then, in effect, become new buy order that propel prices even higher. The reverse scenario would be true for a bearish break-out. Always remember, without these price extensions and increases in volatility, break-out traders will be vulnerable to a “false break-out” scenario that can quickly result in losses if not managed properly.
So, when we are looking to employ a well-structured break-out trading strategy, all of these factors need to be taken into consideration. It is not enough to simply look at breaks of support or resistance by themselves. Watching volume and follow-through can help to greatly improve trading probabilities.