Sergey Golubev / Profil

近期中国交通银行首席经济学家 连平对中国经济增长、增加就业、稳定物价、保持国际收支平衡，明年宏观调控等方面进行了预期，其中在人民币汇率方面，连平称：

虽然2014年在美国量化宽松政策退出预期增强的背景下，资本仍有阶段性流出的压力，但考虑到以下原因，2014年资本流入的压力可能会有所增强。

—中国经济稳中向好，特别是在中国实行全面深化改革的乐观预期下，中国经济的全球竞争力将进一步提升，必然对全球资本产生更大的吸引力；

—随着经济稳中向好、物价持续回升，中国货币政策已不可能再放松，考虑到2014年物价上涨的压力，不排除明年下半年央行有收紧货币政策的可能性，中国央行态度的变化可能使市场利率进一步走高，导致中外利差扩大，从而吸引资本的重新流入；

—随着美国量化宽松政策的逐步退出和全球经济的进一步复苏，资金的风险偏好会进一步上升，可能从美元和黄金等避险资产流向股票和新兴市场等风险资产；

—中美之间存在贸易不平衡，使人民币兑美元仍有持续升值的压力。2014年人民币对美元可能继续保持小幅升值态势，“汇率破6”是大概率事件 。但鉴于美元可能中期走弱，人民币实际有效汇率升值的步伐则可能放缓。

EUR/JPY hits 5-year high on hawkish ECB comments (source - investing.com)

The euro strengthened to five-year highs against the yen not on Friday after European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann warned against keeping interest rates low.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/JPY was up 0.77% at 144.62, up from a low of 143.44 and off a high of 145.69.

The pair sought to test support at 142.10, Monday's low, and resistance at 146.84, the high from Oct. 3, 2008.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said earlier that keeping interest rates low may endanger political reforms.

According to Germany’s Bild newspaper, Weidmann said low inflation shouldn’t be used to justify loose monetary policy.

"We must take care to raise interest rates again in a timely manner should inflation pressures build," he reportedly said, and his comments sent the euro posting strong gains against most major currencies, the yen especially.

Meanwhile in Japan, hit-or-miss data weakened the yen against the single currency.

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