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Tospol Toommala
Fundamental View on BTC/USD – Short-term Trading (25 July 2025)
Key fundamentals:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows remain strong, with inflows exceeding $14.8 billion USD from US institutional funds. Large accumulations by funds such as MicroStrategy and corporate treasuries continue to support the market despite recent price corrections.
Citi highlights adoption and ETF flows as the primary short-term price drivers over models like stock-to-flow or production costs.
Demand from ETFs and institutions has outpaced new supply by a ratio of 5-to-1 since ETP launches in 2024, creating supply-demand imbalances favorable to higher prices.
A weaker US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions (e.g., US Crypto Clarification Act and Genius Act) are improving investor confidence and facilitating profit-taking in the crypto space.
Citi’s updated valuation model emphasizes adoption rates rather than structural factors like mining costs, indicating price pull from growing adoption may continue even amid corrections.
The crypto market cap (~$4 trillion) reflects growth and institutional adoption, with Bitcoin as a key portfolio component providing a more stable market structure than in prior cycles.
Short-term fundamental summary:
Overall positive outlook supported by strong ETF flows and institutional demand.
Limited negative factors; price corrections remain contained amid robust buying.
Sentiment remains mostly positive, aided by clearer regulatory frameworks and international cooperation enhancing large investor confidence.
Continued ETF inflows may prevent prolonged sideways price action and push prices toward new resistance levels.
Key indicators to watch:
Weekly ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion USD signal strong positive price pressure.
Regulatory developments such as the passage of Clarity Act or stablecoin regulations.
On-chain demand metrics including active addresses and short-term holder demand as highlighted by analysts like Axel Adler.
Key fundamentals:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows remain strong, with inflows exceeding $14.8 billion USD from US institutional funds. Large accumulations by funds such as MicroStrategy and corporate treasuries continue to support the market despite recent price corrections.
Citi highlights adoption and ETF flows as the primary short-term price drivers over models like stock-to-flow or production costs.
Demand from ETFs and institutions has outpaced new supply by a ratio of 5-to-1 since ETP launches in 2024, creating supply-demand imbalances favorable to higher prices.
A weaker US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions (e.g., US Crypto Clarification Act and Genius Act) are improving investor confidence and facilitating profit-taking in the crypto space.
Citi’s updated valuation model emphasizes adoption rates rather than structural factors like mining costs, indicating price pull from growing adoption may continue even amid corrections.
The crypto market cap (~$4 trillion) reflects growth and institutional adoption, with Bitcoin as a key portfolio component providing a more stable market structure than in prior cycles.
Short-term fundamental summary:
Overall positive outlook supported by strong ETF flows and institutional demand.
Limited negative factors; price corrections remain contained amid robust buying.
Sentiment remains mostly positive, aided by clearer regulatory frameworks and international cooperation enhancing large investor confidence.
Continued ETF inflows may prevent prolonged sideways price action and push prices toward new resistance levels.
Key indicators to watch:
Weekly ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion USD signal strong positive price pressure.
Regulatory developments such as the passage of Clarity Act or stablecoin regulations.
On-chain demand metrics including active addresses and short-term holder demand as highlighted by analysts like Axel Adler.
Tospol Toommala
BTC/USD Update
Latest price: ~$118,144 (Today’s range: $117,205–$118,289)
Resistance: ~$118,300 — if broken, possible retest at $118,500–$118,600
Support: ~$117,300–$117,400 — if broken, key support around $117,000
Short-term view:
Momentum remains positive
Price is above EMA50 and EMA100
Latest technical rating from Bitget and TradingView: Buy
Intraday trading plan:
Long entry near support (~$117,300–$117,400) when RSI is not oversold
Take profit target around $118,300–$118,500
Stop loss just below $117,000
Short entry if price rejects resistance (~$118,300)
Take profit near support at $117,300–$117,400
Stop loss above ~$118,400
Note:
Short trades are not recommended currently due to the prevailing positive momentum and overall bullish technical setup.
Risk of false breakouts to the downside is higher, so caution is advised.
#BTCUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #IntradayTrading
Latest price: ~$118,144 (Today’s range: $117,205–$118,289)
Resistance: ~$118,300 — if broken, possible retest at $118,500–$118,600
Support: ~$117,300–$117,400 — if broken, key support around $117,000
Short-term view:
Momentum remains positive
Price is above EMA50 and EMA100
Latest technical rating from Bitget and TradingView: Buy
Intraday trading plan:
Long entry near support (~$117,300–$117,400) when RSI is not oversold
Take profit target around $118,300–$118,500
Stop loss just below $117,000
Short entry if price rejects resistance (~$118,300)
Take profit near support at $117,300–$117,400
Stop loss above ~$118,400
Note:
Short trades are not recommended currently due to the prevailing positive momentum and overall bullish technical setup.
Risk of false breakouts to the downside is higher, so caution is advised.
#BTCUSD #TechnicalAnalysis #IntradayTrading
Tospol Toommala
📊 BTCUSD Technical Analysis – 25 July 2025
H4:
Price broke below EMA50 and touched EMA100
MACD histogram shows growing bearish momentum
Bollinger Bands expanding downward – bearish structure forming
H1:
Sharp drop below EMA200 with only a weak bounce
MACD remains deep in negative territory – sellers in control
Price struggling to reclaim mid-Bollinger
M15:
Brief rebound failed to break above key moving averages
Stochastic turning down, MACD flattening – upside momentum fading
🎯 Strategy:
Look for a clean break below 11,560 for potential short setup
Target: 11,450
Stop: Above 11,650
📌 Bias: Bearish
Only reconsider if price reclaims and holds above 11,700 on H1
#BTCUSD #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalOutlook #TradeWithDiscipline
H4:
Price broke below EMA50 and touched EMA100
MACD histogram shows growing bearish momentum
Bollinger Bands expanding downward – bearish structure forming
H1:
Sharp drop below EMA200 with only a weak bounce
MACD remains deep in negative territory – sellers in control
Price struggling to reclaim mid-Bollinger
M15:
Brief rebound failed to break above key moving averages
Stochastic turning down, MACD flattening – upside momentum fading
🎯 Strategy:
Look for a clean break below 11,560 for potential short setup
Target: 11,450
Stop: Above 11,650
📌 Bias: Bearish
Only reconsider if price reclaims and holds above 11,700 on H1
#BTCUSD #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalOutlook #TradeWithDiscipline
Tospol Toommala
📊 Gold Recap & Outlook – 23 July (Evening Prep)
Last night, gold showed classic bull-trap behavior — breaking above 2430 before snapping back into the range. Many traders either got stopped out or missed the move entirely. If that was you, don’t be too hard on yourself.
This market isn’t about catching every move.
It’s about protecting your capital so you can catch the right one.
🎯 Key levels:
Resistance: 2432 / 2438
Support: 2415 / 2402
Price is still holding within the broader bullish structure, but momentum is slowing. If NY session brings weak volume, tonight may remain a chop zone.
Trade light. Observe. Discipline wins more than aggression.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #ForexMindset #CapitalPreservation #TradeWithDiscipline
Gold Daytrade: https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/2206836
Last night, gold showed classic bull-trap behavior — breaking above 2430 before snapping back into the range. Many traders either got stopped out or missed the move entirely. If that was you, don’t be too hard on yourself.
This market isn’t about catching every move.
It’s about protecting your capital so you can catch the right one.
🎯 Key levels:
Resistance: 2432 / 2438
Support: 2415 / 2402
Price is still holding within the broader bullish structure, but momentum is slowing. If NY session brings weak volume, tonight may remain a chop zone.
Trade light. Observe. Discipline wins more than aggression.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #ForexMindset #CapitalPreservation #TradeWithDiscipline
Gold Daytrade: https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/2206836