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EUR/USD – NEUTRAL BIAS – (1.1200-1.1500) The euro continues to remain relatively stable against the US dollar in the near-term. The Fed’s reluctance to signal more strongly that it may resume rate hikes at their next meeting in June is likely to keep

Citi now forecasts the RBA to cut rates by a 25bp at its May policy meeting next week. "Economic growth doesn’t argue for a rate cut next week. But the breadth of the price weakness in the Q1 CPI and signs that inflation expectations are shifting

'Bremain' odds are unlikely to advance much further argue TD Securities who warn this could be as good as it gets for the pound and interest rate yields. The yield on UK sovereign debt has rallied sharply as investors demand less return for holding

For the April employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, May 6, we forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 250k.  Such an outturn would indicate that job growth accelerated from the March reading of 215k and the 209k average in Q1. Within

EUR/USD has been trapped in a broad sideways range since basing in March 2015, notes Credit Suisse. " For now, our bias is for price and retracement resistance at 1.1495 to ideally cap  – the October 2015 and April 2016 highs and 78.6%

Yes folks, it's official. The creator  of Bitcoin really is Aussie Craig White 2 May I was going to use the headline " publicly reveals himself" but that would be a whole different story. Australian entrepreneur Craig Wright has publicly

The ECB has been researching US economic data and it doesn't like what it has found. In a report that could shock market participants and regulators, they note advance price moves on embargoed private statistics. The report says they see 'price

The following are excerpts from a working paper published Monday authored by the research staff of the European Central Bank that tentatively suggests several U.S. macroeconomic reports are known by some traders as much as 30 minutes in advance (The

The recent leg in the dollar depreciation looks little justified, in our view . Even though the probability of a June hike has decreased in the past few weeks, the latest FOMC statement did not signal a more dovish stance than currently priced in. In

For the last six months, US real yields have been falling relative to those in the Eurozone and (even more sharply) in Japan. Those real yield moves have been undermining the dollar and as the DXY dollar index broke lower, all the way to levels last

EUR/JPY:  We have turned neutral in the short-term and  would prefer to fade upticks or re-establish a bearish view on a break below 121.55 lows . Our downside targets are towards 119.90, near the monthly cloud base and then 118.75/115.35

The break of USDJPY above 110 and EURJPY almost reaching 125 is likely to be the start of a new appreciation trend for these pairs, says BNP Paribas. " Our economists’ base case remains that the BoJ will cut the IOER further into negative territory

The focus will now shift to the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings next week. We expect the Bank of Japan to announce further easing and the Fed to change the April statement to a more balanced risk assessment of the economic outlook. Our

The euro zone needs negative interest rates to avoid sliding into deflation, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in an Austrian newspaper interview, defending the policy against widespread criticism in Germany. The ECB

Our economist remains of the view that the next policy move is most likely to occur at the June meeting. Financial conditions have fully recovered (our FCI eased since March) and market inflation expectations have moved off their lows. Two obstacles

Hedge funds and other large speculators are betting on dollar weakness for the first time in almost two years. Positions that benefit from losses by the U.S. currency exceeded those that benefit from from a rally by a net 21,567 contracts in the week

As oil prices recovered and equity prices rose, the GBP appreciated as expected. Thus the thesis that global factors predominate has been justified so far. Note that during the same period the Brexit chance has not diminished – on the contrary, the

The USD has been on the back-foot so far this year, largely reflecting the Fed’s fearful stance which is currently helping reflate global markets. The Fed will however become less nervous in coming months: i) financial conditions are now the easiest

RBS lays out three potential scenarios for today's FOMC statements highlighting the related FX strategies in each of these 3 scenarios: 1. Neutral (maintain dovish) case: This is our base case , where the Fed maintains the dovish approach established