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After a disappointing May labor market report on Friday, all eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is expected to deliver her view on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia. Chair Yellen is

Today’s main focus will be Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at 1730 BST, where we expect her to emphasize data dependency and a preference for waiting for more information before resuming hikes. Friday’s payroll report is likely to be viewed as worrying for

The hawkish bug seems to have also bitten Janet Yellen, the Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed). In an eagerly-anticipated interview on Friday, she dropped a hint that the next increase in short-term interest rates might come in the next couple of

The policy divergence trade is back with a vengeance and investors are scrambling to buy USD against other G10 currencies. We suspect that the USD resilience will extend into next week ahead of the important US NFP release . The focus, as per usual

Pound sterling retains a positive bias on global foreign exchange markets with a halt in the advance of US real yields halting the broad-based dollar strength we have become increasingly familiar with. At the same time, the British pound will see the

Expect a slow start to the week It's the Spring bank holiday in the UK and Memorial Day in the United States. Expect to see markets with a bit of a hangover on Tuesday. source

May 2016 Swiss KOF leading indicator 102.9 vs 102.8 exp The Swiss KOF leading indicator for May 2016 Prior 102.7

The June ECB decision should prove to be a non-event for EUR  on our economists’ base case scenario of no change in policy particularly ahead of the start of CSPP and another TLTRO.  These policies afford the ECB time to assess the impact

Two ICM/Guardian polls A telephone poll from ICM/Guardian shows the 'leave' side at 45% compared to 42% to 'remain' in the EU. An online poll from the same firm shows 47% to leave and 44% to stay. The numbers are just crossing and GBP is quickly

Currency investors should consider selling USD/JPY* on further rallies this week , advises Morgan Stanley in its weekly FX pick to clients. "Japan’s GPIF said there was no need to make any changes to the portfolio as the fund is achieving its target

EUR/USD’s challenge of key support at 1.1097/1058 – the 200-day average, 50% retracement level and price support – has led to fresh buying for a bounce higher, notes Credit Suisse. "However, we view this as corrective in nature, and look for fresh

We continue to expect data in the weeks ahead to prevent Fed rate hikes, with our economics team forecasting  a below-consensus 110k reading on Friday’s non-farm payroll release. We continue to view risks as lying to the upside in EURUSD and

Rates spreads suggest a higher EUR/CHF at this point, expect the move up to continue, with Brexit as key short term risk. EUR/CHF has moved above 1.10 and aimed for 1.12 during last month. After a short pause we expect the upside to continue. Rates

We comb through the most up-to-date research on the British pound / euro exchange rate to figure out just where the selling interest may end. Pound sterling is under notable pressure on global FX markets at the start of the new month with the most

It is pretty obvious that the oil price development has straight forward inflation implications and with oil prices almost 90% higher compared to their cyclical lows from January, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are ready to announce the

Plenty of banks out there offering client notes ahead of the ECB today 2 June 2016 These courtesy of MNI. majority of banks expect ECB to leave policy rates to be left unchanged at today's meeting, with focus on implementation of corporate sector

Full release of the ECB's June economic forecasts The shift up in 2016 growth is about as good as it got for the forecasts, with some of the other main components going the other way. Here's the full rundown of the main points; GDP 2016 1.6% vs

Bloomberg has been around the banks collecting their views on Brexit Barclays - Baseline scenrario is that the UK stays Morgan Stanley - Expects a slow pick up in inflation leading to rate hikes in early 2017 BofAML - Expect a renewed period of pound

This is via eFX  We expect the USD advance to continue from here, but may develop within a risk negative environment  suggesting the DXY losing momentum relative to the Fed's broad USD index. Risk aversion could keep demand for JPY

Bloomberg noting the turf accountant has seen a rise in the proportion of leave bets in the last 48 hours The bookies are loving the exposure right now. Virtually every day we see one or t'other coming out with the lastest moves and being picked up