bota mircea
European stock markets fell after the U.S. services sector shows signs of weakness. American Stock Exchange continued decline in European markets following the publication in the estimate of the ISM service sector index. Asian capital market has been declining after posting disappointing expansion index of U.S. services industry.
· 1
bota mircea
2014 begins with some corrections in equity markets and a hesitant Euro
2014 has begun! Concentration gradually returns after a holiday . Greater attention should have an informed trader , trying to relearn working atmosphere with market sentiment , with liveliness news feeds and emotional burden of trading .
Debut of the Year has already brought some corrections of overflowing enthusiasm , especially in some of the capital markets. After the celebration, more cautious investors decided to bring the barn harvest some profits. Bernanke 's bold choices for the future of the U.S. economy this year was also the occasion of marking profits - heralding a new stop providing liquidity , and hence an increase in interest and desire certainly that capital markets do not satisfy.
Euro "comfort" the $ 1.39 , the low liquidity during the holidays, but later restored to near 1.36 at levels that better reflect the different movements of the two major economic blocs .
2014 has begun! Concentration gradually returns after a holiday . Greater attention should have an informed trader , trying to relearn working atmosphere with market sentiment , with liveliness news feeds and emotional burden of trading .
Debut of the Year has already brought some corrections of overflowing enthusiasm , especially in some of the capital markets. After the celebration, more cautious investors decided to bring the barn harvest some profits. Bernanke 's bold choices for the future of the U.S. economy this year was also the occasion of marking profits - heralding a new stop providing liquidity , and hence an increase in interest and desire certainly that capital markets do not satisfy.
Euro "comfort" the $ 1.39 , the low liquidity during the holidays, but later restored to near 1.36 at levels that better reflect the different movements of the two major economic blocs .
· 2
bota mircea
The EUR fell the most in the last two months against the dollar amid strengthening U.S. economy. New Zealand dollar appreciated against its counterparts from the expectations of an increase in interest rate. Pound continued its appreciation against the euro as a result of expansion in the UK housing market.
· 2
bota mircea
EUR / USD intraday: the downward scenario is preferred.
Pivot point (level of invalidation): 1.3625
Our preference: positions below 1.3625 with targets sales of 1.3565 and 1.3525 in extension
Pivot point (level of invalidation): 1.3625
Our preference: positions below 1.3625 with targets sales of 1.3565 and 1.3525 in extension
· 1
bota mircea
EUR / USD intraday: the downward scenario is preferred.
Pivot point (level of invalidation): 1.3710
Our preference: positions below 1.3710 with targets sales of 1.3620 and 1.3600 in extension.
Pivot point (level of invalidation): 1.3710
Our preference: positions below 1.3710 with targets sales of 1.3620 and 1.3600 in extension.
· 1
bota mircea
Following two weeks of silence ?
The next period may be relaxed , but not necessarily boring
2013 trading year for most currency markets actually ends on December 31 , but even months liquidity will become much smaller , with the entry into holiday trading services major banks . The next period will not necessarily be dull and new home sales reports , 24 at 17:00 in U.S. retail sales in Japan on Friday at 1.50 , consumer confidence in the U.S. 31 at 17 , ISM Industrial on Thursday January 2 at 17 can bring even fluctuations , especially in the short term .
In your support we made a compilation of days off and the most important macroeconomic events .
Even if markets will not engage in well-defined trends can be observed current direction favorable actions and dollars, temporary corrective adjustments in line marking profits before Christmas and New Year.
Euro is no longer leave impressed
Rating agency S & P cut the rating of the European Union one step below AAA , but exceeded Euro nonchalantly time . Spell a mechanism to resolve future crises in the banking system is visible, as well as moderate revival estimated for future anticipated ZEW and IFO surveys already . Confidence built in Germany sees and GfK indicator . Will Euro to orchestrate a comeback at the beginning of the week ? The partially digested the Fed's surprise , an episode of moderate appreciation of the European currency is possible, but seems unlikely to be stopped dollar appreciation over the medium .
source: xtb.ro
The next period may be relaxed , but not necessarily boring
2013 trading year for most currency markets actually ends on December 31 , but even months liquidity will become much smaller , with the entry into holiday trading services major banks . The next period will not necessarily be dull and new home sales reports , 24 at 17:00 in U.S. retail sales in Japan on Friday at 1.50 , consumer confidence in the U.S. 31 at 17 , ISM Industrial on Thursday January 2 at 17 can bring even fluctuations , especially in the short term .
In your support we made a compilation of days off and the most important macroeconomic events .
Even if markets will not engage in well-defined trends can be observed current direction favorable actions and dollars, temporary corrective adjustments in line marking profits before Christmas and New Year.
Euro is no longer leave impressed
Rating agency S & P cut the rating of the European Union one step below AAA , but exceeded Euro nonchalantly time . Spell a mechanism to resolve future crises in the banking system is visible, as well as moderate revival estimated for future anticipated ZEW and IFO surveys already . Confidence built in Germany sees and GfK indicator . Will Euro to orchestrate a comeback at the beginning of the week ? The partially digested the Fed's surprise , an episode of moderate appreciation of the European currency is possible, but seems unlikely to be stopped dollar appreciation over the medium .
source: xtb.ro
· 1
bota mircea
hello,
i stop trading until 6.01.2014 because liquidity is very low this time of year. I wish you all a Merry Cristmas and a Happy New Year.
see you all next year!
Signals will be free on January!
i stop trading until 6.01.2014 because liquidity is very low this time of year. I wish you all a Merry Cristmas and a Happy New Year.
see you all next year!
Signals will be free on January!
bota mircea
Bernanke , end of an era troubled and controversial
Yesterday veteran Ben Bernanke has justified for the last time before the public policy decisions monateră they took as president of the Federal Reserve ( central bank) , marking the end of a tumultuous and controversial era that brought the greatest world economy from the deepest recession and the worst financial crisis after the Second World War .
Yesterday's Fed meeting was the last for which Bernanke has scheduled a press conference commitment to transparency in which he had made a tradition. Legacy it leaves behind is an economic and monetary policy aggressively unprecedented interest based on zero and trillions of dollars injected into the U.S. economy and the economies of other countries and even in markets, a legacy that reveals how much influence world what is happening in the U.S..
Bernanke has made U.S. the epicenter of the global financial and economic crisis in one of the main growth engines of the world economy . His place will be taken in February next year, one of his closest allies and followers of Bernanke , Janet Yellen .
source: www.zf.ro
Yesterday veteran Ben Bernanke has justified for the last time before the public policy decisions monateră they took as president of the Federal Reserve ( central bank) , marking the end of a tumultuous and controversial era that brought the greatest world economy from the deepest recession and the worst financial crisis after the Second World War .
Yesterday's Fed meeting was the last for which Bernanke has scheduled a press conference commitment to transparency in which he had made a tradition. Legacy it leaves behind is an economic and monetary policy aggressively unprecedented interest based on zero and trillions of dollars injected into the U.S. economy and the economies of other countries and even in markets, a legacy that reveals how much influence world what is happening in the U.S..
Bernanke has made U.S. the epicenter of the global financial and economic crisis in one of the main growth engines of the world economy . His place will be taken in February next year, one of his closest allies and followers of Bernanke , Janet Yellen .
source: www.zf.ro
· 1
bota mircea
A moderate or postpone : question for the Fed and market response
Markets are not prepared to reduce monetary incentives
Some investment banks see the first step towards stopping bailout in January , others only in March . The manager of the largest bond fund in the world sees a 60% probability to start slowing tonight. Spectrum of opinions on tonight 's very broad . Enough to generate large variations , whatever the outcome . But what will decide whether the Fed is not followed by market direction .
If we focus on the dollar , assuming the probable ( from our perspective ) a reduction in the QE program by 5 billion dollars, the initial assessment should be the pulse of a magnitude of at least 0.5 % against major currencies .
If the contents of the statement will appear that will go in the near future in this direction, even if it is not announced an immediate cut , the dollar would benefit and equity markets and gold would suffer visible corrections .
Fed could choose a third option : to avoid action , or even a push in the future , such as dropping 6.5% unemployment rate would start raising interest rates. The positive risk sentiment could push up shares and gold and currency pairs like EUR / USD or GBP / USD .
Communication can be viewed on the website of the Federal Reserve .
source: xtb.ro
Markets are not prepared to reduce monetary incentives
Some investment banks see the first step towards stopping bailout in January , others only in March . The manager of the largest bond fund in the world sees a 60% probability to start slowing tonight. Spectrum of opinions on tonight 's very broad . Enough to generate large variations , whatever the outcome . But what will decide whether the Fed is not followed by market direction .
If we focus on the dollar , assuming the probable ( from our perspective ) a reduction in the QE program by 5 billion dollars, the initial assessment should be the pulse of a magnitude of at least 0.5 % against major currencies .
If the contents of the statement will appear that will go in the near future in this direction, even if it is not announced an immediate cut , the dollar would benefit and equity markets and gold would suffer visible corrections .
Fed could choose a third option : to avoid action , or even a push in the future , such as dropping 6.5% unemployment rate would start raising interest rates. The positive risk sentiment could push up shares and gold and currency pairs like EUR / USD or GBP / USD .
Communication can be viewed on the website of the Federal Reserve .
source: xtb.ro
· 1
bota mircea
Sergey Golubev
Comment to topic Something Interesting to Read December 2013
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre This book is a true page turner. It is a breath-taking recount of how a young boy managed to amass one of the largest fortunes by speculating despite
bota mircea
hi guys,
no trades today, because tonight are aspected some important news on usd...and i don.t want to stay in trades until tonight...see you all tommorow
no trades today, because tonight are aspected some important news on usd...and i don.t want to stay in trades until tonight...see you all tommorow
bota mircea
Forex Hedging
Hedging is simply coming up with a way to protect yourself against big loss. Think of a hedge as getting insurance on your trade. Hedging is a way to reduce the amount of loss you would incur if something unexpected happened.
Simple Forex Hedging
Some brokers allow you to place trades that are direct hedges. Direct hedging is when you are allowed to place a trade that buys a currency pair and then at the same time you can place a trade to sell the same pair. While the net profit is zero while you have both trades open, you can make more money without incurring additional risk if you time the market just right.
The way a simple forex hedge protects you is that it allows you to trade the opposite direction of your initial trade without having to close that initial trade. It can be argued that it makes more sense to close the initial trade for a loss and place a new trade in a better spot. This is part of trader discretion. As a trader, you certainly could close your initial trade and enter the market at a better price. The advantage of using the hedge is that you can keep your trade on the market and make money with a second trade that makes profit as the market moves against your first position. When you suspect the market is going to reverse and go back in your initial trades favor, you can set a stop on the hedging trade, or just close it.
Complex Hedging
There are many methods for complex hedging of forex trades. Many brokers do not allow traders to take directly hedged positions in the same account so other approaches are necessary.
Multiple Currency Pairs
A forex trader can make a hedge against a particular currency by using two different currency pairs. For example, you could go long EUR/USD and short USD/CHF. In this case, it wouldn’t be exact but you would be hedging your USD exposure. The only issue with hedging this way is you are exposed to fluctuations in the Euro(EUR) and the Swiss(CHF). This means if the Euro becomes a strong currency against all other currencies, there could be a fluctuation in EUR/USD that is not counter acted in USD/CHF. This is generally not a reliable way to hedge unless you are building a complicated hedge that takes many currency pairs into account.
Forex Options
A forex option is an agreement to conduct an exchange at a specified price in the future. For example, say you place a long trade on EUR/USD at 1.30. To protect that position you place a forex strike option at 1.29. What this means is if the EUR/USD falls to 1.29 within the time specified for your option, you get paid out on that option. How much you get paid depends on market conditions when you buy the option and the size of the option. If the EUR/USD does not reach that price in the specified time, you lose only the purchase price of the option. The farther away from the market price your option at the time of purchase, the bigger the payout will be if the price is hit within the specified time.
Reasons to Hedge
The main reason that you want to use hedging on your trades is to limit risk. Hedging can be a bigger part of your trading plan if done carefully. It should only be used by experienced traders that understand market swings and timing. Playing with hedging without adequate trading experience could be a disaster for your account.
source: http://forextrading.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/forex_hedging.htm
Hedging is simply coming up with a way to protect yourself against big loss. Think of a hedge as getting insurance on your trade. Hedging is a way to reduce the amount of loss you would incur if something unexpected happened.
Simple Forex Hedging
Some brokers allow you to place trades that are direct hedges. Direct hedging is when you are allowed to place a trade that buys a currency pair and then at the same time you can place a trade to sell the same pair. While the net profit is zero while you have both trades open, you can make more money without incurring additional risk if you time the market just right.
The way a simple forex hedge protects you is that it allows you to trade the opposite direction of your initial trade without having to close that initial trade. It can be argued that it makes more sense to close the initial trade for a loss and place a new trade in a better spot. This is part of trader discretion. As a trader, you certainly could close your initial trade and enter the market at a better price. The advantage of using the hedge is that you can keep your trade on the market and make money with a second trade that makes profit as the market moves against your first position. When you suspect the market is going to reverse and go back in your initial trades favor, you can set a stop on the hedging trade, or just close it.
Complex Hedging
There are many methods for complex hedging of forex trades. Many brokers do not allow traders to take directly hedged positions in the same account so other approaches are necessary.
Multiple Currency Pairs
A forex trader can make a hedge against a particular currency by using two different currency pairs. For example, you could go long EUR/USD and short USD/CHF. In this case, it wouldn’t be exact but you would be hedging your USD exposure. The only issue with hedging this way is you are exposed to fluctuations in the Euro(EUR) and the Swiss(CHF). This means if the Euro becomes a strong currency against all other currencies, there could be a fluctuation in EUR/USD that is not counter acted in USD/CHF. This is generally not a reliable way to hedge unless you are building a complicated hedge that takes many currency pairs into account.
Forex Options
A forex option is an agreement to conduct an exchange at a specified price in the future. For example, say you place a long trade on EUR/USD at 1.30. To protect that position you place a forex strike option at 1.29. What this means is if the EUR/USD falls to 1.29 within the time specified for your option, you get paid out on that option. How much you get paid depends on market conditions when you buy the option and the size of the option. If the EUR/USD does not reach that price in the specified time, you lose only the purchase price of the option. The farther away from the market price your option at the time of purchase, the bigger the payout will be if the price is hit within the specified time.
Reasons to Hedge
The main reason that you want to use hedging on your trades is to limit risk. Hedging can be a bigger part of your trading plan if done carefully. It should only be used by experienced traders that understand market swings and timing. Playing with hedging without adequate trading experience could be a disaster for your account.
source: http://forextrading.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/forex_hedging.htm
· 2
bota mircea
Europe will split the cost of closure of banks
Tankan illustrious return report
Japan's best reputed levels Tankan index from 2007 to now. Values validated the optimistic views of observers. Confidence in the service sector reached 20 points , equivalent to industry and gained 4 points to level 16 . Large companies plan increased spending by 4.6 % by March 2014 - slightly below estimates. Quarterly Raprtul proves , however, a strong economy , but the yen was not too impressed. Assessments were short -lived - and the answer is right in the report: the next quarter , companies are more pessimistic . And BOJ could sweeten tax increase in April with a new round of printing press . That is why the yen was hesitant. The key is now but rather in the hands of the Fed , if it chooses to signal slowdown , USDJPY rally would likely draw a throb beyond 105 .
Two good news?
Angela Merkel has obtained approval for the ruling coalition . The program will include some measures left to the markets began choosing to celebrate the moment , although it may be reduced in the long term competitiveness of the country famous . A second perceived positive news related to plan cost -sharing gradual liquidation of banks in the eurozone, leading to an overall balance in 10 years. Euro moved the hearts of buyers , but his balance again call 1.38 . As we approach Wednesday night , cluttering can judder favorable dollar .
Tankan illustrious return report
Japan's best reputed levels Tankan index from 2007 to now. Values validated the optimistic views of observers. Confidence in the service sector reached 20 points , equivalent to industry and gained 4 points to level 16 . Large companies plan increased spending by 4.6 % by March 2014 - slightly below estimates. Quarterly Raprtul proves , however, a strong economy , but the yen was not too impressed. Assessments were short -lived - and the answer is right in the report: the next quarter , companies are more pessimistic . And BOJ could sweeten tax increase in April with a new round of printing press . That is why the yen was hesitant. The key is now but rather in the hands of the Fed , if it chooses to signal slowdown , USDJPY rally would likely draw a throb beyond 105 .
Two good news?
Angela Merkel has obtained approval for the ruling coalition . The program will include some measures left to the markets began choosing to celebrate the moment , although it may be reduced in the long term competitiveness of the country famous . A second perceived positive news related to plan cost -sharing gradual liquidation of banks in the eurozone, leading to an overall balance in 10 years. Euro moved the hearts of buyers , but his balance again call 1.38 . As we approach Wednesday night , cluttering can judder favorable dollar .
· 3
bota mircea
EURUSD intraday: Short possition 1.3765...TP1: 1.3710, TP2: 1.3675
Technical Review: intraday technical indicators are unclear and urges caution.
Technical Review: intraday technical indicators are unclear and urges caution.
bota mircea
Important Events
Swiss Central Bank kept interest rate at 0-0.25%;
Eurozone industrial production down 1.1% from last month;
U.S. jobless claims were published in increasing levels of 368K;
Today, U.S. PPI indicator is expected at 15:30;
Retail sales in the U.S. rose in December by 0.4% in the previous month;
Industrial production in Japan than expected, up 1% from last month.
Swiss Central Bank kept interest rate at 0-0.25%;
Eurozone industrial production down 1.1% from last month;
U.S. jobless claims were published in increasing levels of 368K;
Today, U.S. PPI indicator is expected at 15:30;
Retail sales in the U.S. rose in December by 0.4% in the previous month;
Industrial production in Japan than expected, up 1% from last month.
bota mircea
Congress cut spending in very small steps
The deficit will be reduced by about 23 billion, to a total figure of 1.3 trillion in 2014 and 2015
Congress agreed on tax cuts . Means a reduction of 23 billion dollars over two years , reported a deficit of 7% of estimated GDP in 2013 , a turnover of approx . $ 1.3 trillion in the coming years ? Too little , too little . Automatic spending cuts agreed in 2011 were themselves insufficient , and now they were reduced to 63 billion dollars. It is an important political , concluding several years of wrangling that led to cutting the U.S. rating in 2011 and blocking public sector in October. Beyond this , however , the problems seem to be just rolled in the future. Market reaction was modest . Maybe even on things optimistically so far, avoiding a shutdown type new show is good news. In the medium term , however , will require more. Otherwise, deficit financing by printing money will not help the dollar at all.
The deficit will be reduced by about 23 billion, to a total figure of 1.3 trillion in 2014 and 2015
Congress agreed on tax cuts . Means a reduction of 23 billion dollars over two years , reported a deficit of 7% of estimated GDP in 2013 , a turnover of approx . $ 1.3 trillion in the coming years ? Too little , too little . Automatic spending cuts agreed in 2011 were themselves insufficient , and now they were reduced to 63 billion dollars. It is an important political , concluding several years of wrangling that led to cutting the U.S. rating in 2011 and blocking public sector in October. Beyond this , however , the problems seem to be just rolled in the future. Market reaction was modest . Maybe even on things optimistically so far, avoiding a shutdown type new show is good news. In the medium term , however , will require more. Otherwise, deficit financing by printing money will not help the dollar at all.
· 3
bota mircea
The set of rules will prohibit banks Volcker by trading equity risk
After three years of discussion and 18,000 letters received U.S. regulatory authority has decided to announce guide regulators in response to leaks that led to the financial crisis. Banks will not be allowed to trade with their own capital rather than for specific activities such as hedging (hedging), trading in government securities or providing liquidity to the market maker (market making). The prohibition will come into operation in stages for large banks quickly. Risk sentiment has taken a step back. Gold has come to beat back such actions very rare phenomenon that produces a warning - vibrations of various origins can lead to the same effect correctly in the capital markets.
After three years of discussion and 18,000 letters received U.S. regulatory authority has decided to announce guide regulators in response to leaks that led to the financial crisis. Banks will not be allowed to trade with their own capital rather than for specific activities such as hedging (hedging), trading in government securities or providing liquidity to the market maker (market making). The prohibition will come into operation in stages for large banks quickly. Risk sentiment has taken a step back. Gold has come to beat back such actions very rare phenomenon that produces a warning - vibrations of various origins can lead to the same effect correctly in the capital markets.
· 1