Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
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::: You must expect to be stung by bees when in search of honey :::
::: He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life :::
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
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::: Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Moving Average (Kitco.com) :::
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I take a “toolbox” approach to analyzing and trading markets. The more technical and analytical tools I have in my trading toolbox at my disposal, the better my chances for success in trading. One of my favorite "secondary" trading tools is moving averages. First, let me give you an explanation of moving averages, and then I’ll tell you how I use them.

Moving averages are one of the most commonly used technical tools. In a simple moving average, the mathematical median of the underlying price is calculated over an observation period. Prices (usually closing prices) over this period are added and then divided by the total number of time periods. Every day of the observation period is given the same weighting in simple moving averages. Some moving averages give greater weight to more recent prices in the observation period. These are called exponential or weighted moving averages. In this educational feature, I’ll only discuss simple moving averages.

The length of time (the number of bars) calculated in a moving average is very important. Moving averages with shorter time periods normally fluctuate and are likely to give more trading signals. Slower moving averages use longer time periods and display a smoother moving average. The slower averages, however, may be too slow to enable you to establish a long or short position effectively.

Moving averages follow the trend while smoothing the price movement. The simple moving average is most commonly combined with other simple moving averages to indicate buy and sell signals. Some traders use three moving averages. Their lengths typically consist of short, intermediate, and long-term moving averages. A commonly used system in futures trading is 4-, 9-, and 18-period moving averages. Keep in mind a time interval may be ticks, minutes, days, weeks, or even months. Typically, moving averages are used in the shorter time periods, and not on the longer-term weekly and monthly bar charts.

The normal moving average “crossover” buy/sell signals are as follows: A buy signal is produced when the shorter-term average crosses from below to above the longer-term average. Conversely, a sell signal is issued when the shorter-term average crosses from above to below the longer-term average.

Another trading approach is to use closing prices with the moving averages. When the closing price is above the moving average, maintain a long position. If the closing price falls below the moving average, liquidate any long position and establish a short position.

Here is the important caveat about using moving averages when trading futures markets: They do not work well in choppy or non-trending markets. You can develop a severe case of whiplash using moving averages in choppy, sideways markets. Conversely, in trending markets, moving averages can work very well.

In futures markets, my favorite moving averages are the 9- and 18-day. I have also used the 4-, 9- and 18-day moving averages on occasion.

When looking at a daily bar chart, you can plot different moving averages (provided you have the proper charting software) and immediately see if they have worked well at providing buy and sell signals during the past few months of price history on the chart.

I said I like the 9-day and 18-day moving averages for futures markets. For individual stocks, I have used (and other successful veterans have told me they use) the 100-day moving average to determine if a stock is bullish or bearish. If the stock is above the 100-day moving average, it is bullish. If the stock is below the 100-day moving average, it is bearish. I also use the 100-day moving average to gauge the health of stock index futures markets.

One more bit of sage advice: A veteran market watcher told me the “commodity funds” (the big trading funds that many times seem to dominate futures market trading) follow the 40-day moving average very closely--especially in the grain futures. Thus, if you see a market that is getting ready to cross above or below the 40-day moving average, it just may be that the funds could become more active.

I said earlier that simple moving averages are a "secondary" tool in my trading toolbox. My primary (most important) tools are basic chart patterns, trend lines and fundamental analysis.
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: The MACD Indicator (Kitco.com)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has the past few years become one of the more popular computer-generated technical indicators.

The MACD, developed by Gerald Appel, is both a trend follower and a market momentum indicator (an oscillator). The MACD is the difference between a fast exponential moving average and a slow exponential moving average. An exponential moving average is a weighted moving average that usually assigns a greater weight to more recent price action.

The name “Moving Average Convergence Divergence” originated from the fact that the fast exponential moving average is continually converging toward or diverging away from the slow exponential moving average. A third, dotted exponential moving average of the MACD (the "trigger" or the signal line) is then plotted on top of the MACD.

Parameters:

Mov1: The time period for the first exponential moving average. The default value is usually 12, referring to 12 bars of whatever timeframe plotted on the chart. (This is the fast moving average.)

Mov2: The time period for the subtracted exponential moving average. The default value is usually 26, referring to 26 bars. (This is the slow moving average.)

Trigger: The period of 9 bars for the signal line representing an additional exponential moving average.

The MACD study can be interpreted like any other trend-following analysis: One line crossing another indicates either a buy or sell signal. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, an uptrend may be starting, suggesting a buy. Conversely, the crossing below the signal line may indicate a downtrend and a sell signal. The crossover signals are more reliable when applied to weekly charts, though this indicator may be applied to daily charts for short-term trading.

The MACD can signal overbought and oversold trends, if analyzed as an oscillator that fluctuates above and below a zero line. The market is oversold (buy signal) when both lines are below zero, and it is overbought (sell signal) when the two lines are above the zero line.

The MACD can also help identify divergences between the indicator and price activity, which may signal trend reversals or trend losing momentum. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while prices fail to reach new lows. This can be an early signal of a downtrend losing momentum. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these signals are most serious when they occur at relatively overbought/oversold levels. Weekly charts are more reliable than daily for divergence analysis with the MACD indicator.

For more details on the MACD, Appel has a book in print, entitled: "The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Trading Method."

As with most other computer-generated technical indicators, the MACD is a "secondary" indicator in my trading toolbox. It is not as important as my "primary" technical indicators, such as trend lines, chart gaps, chart patterns and fundamental analysis. I use the MACD to help me confirm signals that my primary indicators may be sending.

That's it for now. Next time, we'll examine another important topic on your road to increased trading success.
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
Buy EUR/USD At 1.3550, EUR/CHF At 1.2280, & Sell USD/CHF At 0.9120 - UBS (eFXnews)


The following are the short-term (mostly intra-day) strategies for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and EUR/CHF, as provided by the FX strategy team at UBS.

EUR/USD has closed higher in 10 out of the last 12 sessions and with the continuous rumors of sovereign interest it seems like 'mission impossible' to play this from the short side. Buyers will be lined up ahead of yesterday's low with more interest around 1.3500, and another move above 1.3600 will take it back to the high from early October at 1.3646. We are flat but will be looking to enter longs near 1.3550 and only cut if it trades below 1.3500

USD/CHF is trading above its support of 0.9060, and although comments from ECB regarding negative rates are up in the air every day creating uncertainty, we remain a seller on rallies towards 0.9100-20.

EUR/CHF remains in range but the downside is vulnerable usually towards the end of the month, so wait for 1.2280, to go long.
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
EUR/USD Tensions Very Elevated As Currency Wars Inflict Gridlock - BMO (eFXnews)

This is an in-depth piece on the ‘currency wars’ theme and the EUR.The main thrust of the piece in its entirety is decomposed as follows:

The ECB needs to be highly strategic in managing the value of the EUR, but the evidence suggests that for the time being it will have some but limited success in weakening the EUR’s nominal effective exchange rate.

If necessary, programmes of well-timed, staggered injections of unsterilised liquidity would appear to be the better options. There is not enough growth in the Euro Area, and the damages that would be inflicted by a re-fragmentation of banking systems are too treacherous for key exporting nations to waste time trying to engineer a ‘sweet spot’ in EURUSD.

Evidence of short-run pass-through from EUR fluctuations to domestic prices is scant. If the ECB is seeking to cap EUR strength, we think the main issue of consideration is one of politics, and of France. The ECB’s referee-like status within the bloc is probably being solidified with each passing day.

Global trade and financial interconnectedness seem to be a factor behind disinflationary pressures, as do cyclical negative commodity price shocks. ‘Currency wars’ and the impact of QE on asset prices appear to be adding to those disinflationary pressures. Debt dynamics in the developed world will keep the ‘currency wars’ theme in vogue for the foreseeable future.

Cointegration and correlation properties between EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest there may be a looming battle on the horizon between the ECB and the BoE. EURGBP may prove itself to be a ‘key battle ground’ in the global ‘currency wars’ theme.

EURUSD tensions will fade markedly once the Fed begins to taper its QE3 programm.
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
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Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
The Fed Won't Derail USD/JPY; Stay Long - Morgan Stanley (eFXnews)

Last week minutes from the October FOMC meeting suggested that the FOMC is still concerned about communication regarding tapering and tightening while market pricing on rate expectations has already become more consistent with the Fed’s expected hiking path, notes Morgan Stanley.

"Credible forward guidance, a market that is more prepared for tapering, and growing evidence that the US economy is gaining momentum provides a positive rate and risk backdrop for USD/JPY," MS argues.

"When the Fed tapers, we do not expect a repeat of the May/June bond volatility and USD weakness against JPY. The market has adjusted to the Fed’s forward guidance, and the FOMC is likely to solidify that guidance even further," MS clarifies.

"With the front-end anchored, there is room for some steepening in the belly of the curve as the US economy improves. Indeed, the lessening fiscal drag and gradually recovering labor market should provide a lift to the US economy and the greenback," MS adds.

"All of this should happen in a constructive risk environment, which is a key component of JPY weakness, given its status as a global funding currency. Developments in Japan, including pension reform and the potential for more BoJ action next year, only strengthen the case," MS concludes.

In line with this view, MS maintains a long USD/JPY in its short-term macro portfolio targeting 103 and another long in its medium-term macro portfolio targeting 105.
Mirza Baig
Mirza Baig
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Using Bollinger Bands (Kitco.com)

The Bollinger Bands (B-Bands) technical study was created by John Bollinger, the president of Bollinger Capital Management Inc., based in Manhattan Beach, California. Bollinger is well respected in the futures and equities industries.

Traders generally use B-Bands to determine overbought and oversold zones, to confirm divergences between prices and other technical indicators, and to project price targets. The wider the B-bands on a chart, the greater the market volatility; the narrower the bands, the less market volatility.

B-Bands are lines plotted on a chart at an interval around a moving average. They consist of a moving average and two standard deviations charted as one line above and one line below the moving average. The line above is two standard deviations added to the moving average. The line below is two standard deviations subtracted from the moving average.

Some traders use B-Bands in conjunction with another indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the market price touches the upper B-band and the RSI does not confirm the upward move (i.e. there is divergence between the indicators), a sell signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the upward move, no sell signal is generated, and in fact, a buy signal may be indicated.

If the price touches the lower B-band and the RSI does not confirm the downward move, a buy signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the downward move, no buy signal is generated, and in fact, a sell signal may be indicated.

Another strategy uses the Bollinger Bands without another indicator. In this approach, a chart top occurring above the upper band followed by a top below the upper band generates a sell signal. Likewise, a chart bottom occurring below the lower band followed by a bottom above the lower band generates a buy signal.

B-Bands also help determine overbought and oversold markets. When prices move closer to the upper band, the market is becoming overbought, and as the prices move closer to the lower band, the market is becoming oversold.

Importantly, the market’s price momentum should also be taken into account. When a market enters an overbought or oversold area, it may become even more so before it reverses. You should always look for evidence of price weakening or strengthening before anticipating a market reversal.

Bollinger Bands can be applied to any type of chart, although this indicator works best with daily and weekly charts. When applied to a weekly chart, the Bands carry more significance for long-term market changes. John Bollinger says periods of less than 10 days do not work well for B-Bands. He says that the optimal period is 20 or 21 days.

Like most computer-generated technical indicators, I use B-Bands as mostly an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions, or for divergence--but not as a specific generator of buy and sell signals for my trading opportunities. It's just one more "secondary" trading tool, as opposed to my "primary" trading tools that include chart patterns and trend lines and fundamental analysis.
Mirza Baig
Added poll Do you check Commitment of Traders (CoT) Report released by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ?
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Total voters: 52
Mirza Baig
Added poll What do you think the reason of your losses in forex ?
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Total voters: 77
Mirza Baig
Left feedback to developer for job Stop Loss EA
Mirza Baig
Added poll Which Oscillators you use most ?
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Total voters: 32
Amit Suryakant Jamuda
Amit Suryakant Jamuda 2013.08.23
MACD
Mirza Baig
Added topic Heiken Ashi Trading System
I have found Heiken Ashi a reliable system, as I started using it recently the past week. Although it does (and in fact "did" produce false signals), yet its profitable overall given the trader has right money management (at his discretion). I will
Mirza Baig
Added topic Confusing Comments
Hi there !   On one of the signals pages, I found some signals, in which, the following comments were observed: close hedge by #5698171 5698154 2013.08.15 Sell 0.02 EURJPY 2013.08.15 -0.13 1.12 to #5698298   What does the above mean
Mirza Baig
Added topic Hiding Order Numbers
Hi there ! It may seem a strange question, but why do traders hide their order numbers when showing screenshots of their history of trading account ? What we can do even if we know the order numbers ? Thanks 
Mirza Baig
Added topic Are Signal Stats Correct ? (FAO Mods)
Hi there ! These are my deposits and withdrawals: 504 + 207.65 - 90 = Net Deposit $621.65 Now if we divide the profit of $37.89 by Net Deposits, we get 6.09%...the signals stats are showing 5.88% :(  Thanks for your help
Mirza Baig
Added topic Filling Policy
Hi ! From MT5 Help, I obtained the following info regarding Filling Policy: Fill Policy Fill or Kill This policy means that a deal can be executed only with the specified volume. If the necessary amount of a financial instrument is currently
Mirza Baig
Added topic MT5 Question
Hi ! I will try to exemplify what I am asking.   Lets assume, we open a Buy 0.01 EURUSD at 1.3000 (TRADE 1) It goes negative by 120 pips (1.288) Here at this point, we will open a new trade, which is 4 times the lot size of TRADE 1, with a TP of
Mirza Baig
Added topic MT5 Stats Website Creation
Hi there ! How will MQL Corp. co-ordinate if I want to get a website built for MT5 stats, just like MT4's website out there ? Currently, MT5's stats are not at par with that of MT4's. Thanks 
Mirza Baig
Added topic In/Out MT5
Hi !   Please excuse my ignorance, what does in/out mean in MT5 ? Thanks