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KDK
I am having a very hard time understanding the fundamentals behind EURUSD right now. Better not to trade for now in my opinion
KDK
Canada just announced a negative GDP growth for this year. I'm very bearish on the CAD right now
KDK
So basically Powell said inflation at 2% isn't important anymore. That makes sense with how this administration wants to devalue the dollar aggressively to make it more competitive. To devaluate a money basically means high inflation (cutting rates helps)
I have to switch bullish on EURUSD. Going to try to enter on all these levels (in red). SL of .15%
Basically my target is now 1.18900
I don't care if I miss a few trades because the risk reward ratio is huge. 1 to 10 is cool even if you miss three trades in my opinion
I have to switch bullish on EURUSD. Going to try to enter on all these levels (in red). SL of .15%
Basically my target is now 1.18900
I don't care if I miss a few trades because the risk reward ratio is huge. 1 to 10 is cool even if you miss three trades in my opinion
KDK
Just an update on my trade for this week on EURUSD. Don't hesitate to reach out to talk about it (the screenshot is on the 4H timeframe)
So I highlighted in "white blue" ish color the volume nodes that already got retested. They can get retested again but that is rare compared to the initial retest
The day closed below Daily support in red. We could get a retest of the green rectangle though (volume + daily support turned resistance)
Just bear in mind that technicals don't mean much without fundamentals. Today we have FOMC Minutes. It's gonna be fun.
If I had to guess I would say first we retest the green rectangle I talked about, then we go down. If any cuts more than one in September are announced I am 100% out
Also SL on break even.
So I highlighted in "white blue" ish color the volume nodes that already got retested. They can get retested again but that is rare compared to the initial retest
The day closed below Daily support in red. We could get a retest of the green rectangle though (volume + daily support turned resistance)
Just bear in mind that technicals don't mean much without fundamentals. Today we have FOMC Minutes. It's gonna be fun.
If I had to guess I would say first we retest the green rectangle I talked about, then we go down. If any cuts more than one in September are announced I am 100% out
Also SL on break even.
KDK
Here's where I am at with EURUSD right now. Posting this for myself to be as serious as possible but if anyone wants to discuss it feel free to comment
Daily supports in RED
Daily wicks I think are relevant in blue
Volume profile levels in white/yellow
My fundamental bias is bearish for this week. I look at daily closures, daily resistances and supports, news, volume profile data (1000 rows for max precision)
Check the screenshot at the same time.
When you look at the retest on the daily timeframe there is not so much room for rebound (retest of the daily support in red has already been done). Either it goes higher from here or totally fails. Momentum is falling so that suggests downside to me.
Also on a technical note, there were a lot of 4H wicks waiting to be retested since the moment Europe announced its trade "deal" with the USA. It is done now. All the liquidity is in. We can now go back down.
As for news : not as much cuts as anticipated by the markets. The FEDWatch tool is already lowering FED cut probabilities. They are still very high but a jumbo cut is in my opinion out of the equation. The market has to adjust (USD has to strengthen)
For entries I look at my volume profile. Basically those are pockets of liquidity. If the price trends in a certain direction they tend to be retested. I use them as entries. The closer to a daily resistance or support they are the better!
I post a 4H timeframe mess of a chart to show you which levels I am looking at right now. My initial entry was at 1.17038 but those would be great for second entries. Just wait for a daily closure or anything relevant closing below them and enter.
As a target I aim at 1.14 weekly resistance. Not taking any risk here
ALSO IF ON WEDNESDAY THEY ANNOUNCE A JUMBO CUT I CLOSE EVERYTHING ASAP
Daily supports in RED
Daily wicks I think are relevant in blue
Volume profile levels in white/yellow
My fundamental bias is bearish for this week. I look at daily closures, daily resistances and supports, news, volume profile data (1000 rows for max precision)
Check the screenshot at the same time.
When you look at the retest on the daily timeframe there is not so much room for rebound (retest of the daily support in red has already been done). Either it goes higher from here or totally fails. Momentum is falling so that suggests downside to me.
Also on a technical note, there were a lot of 4H wicks waiting to be retested since the moment Europe announced its trade "deal" with the USA. It is done now. All the liquidity is in. We can now go back down.
As for news : not as much cuts as anticipated by the markets. The FEDWatch tool is already lowering FED cut probabilities. They are still very high but a jumbo cut is in my opinion out of the equation. The market has to adjust (USD has to strengthen)
For entries I look at my volume profile. Basically those are pockets of liquidity. If the price trends in a certain direction they tend to be retested. I use them as entries. The closer to a daily resistance or support they are the better!
I post a 4H timeframe mess of a chart to show you which levels I am looking at right now. My initial entry was at 1.17038 but those would be great for second entries. Just wait for a daily closure or anything relevant closing below them and enter.
As a target I aim at 1.14 weekly resistance. Not taking any risk here
ALSO IF ON WEDNESDAY THEY ANNOUNCE A JUMBO CUT I CLOSE EVERYTHING ASAP
KDK
INTC is in my watchlist. I bought some around the start of the year.
My idea is simple : Trump will want semi-conductors built in the US (to be less dependent on Taiwan which could be an issue at any moment with China right around the corner)even though the company is in rough shape I think the US government could potentially give it a push to accelerate its foundry business. That is what I'm betting on
Also, Trump will only do four years. But knowing how important semis will be in the future, I don't think the next governments will change their mind regarding semis. So I am not too worried about changes in policy or else
The risk is unbalanced : there is more upside potential than downside to me. That is why I'm in.
I do expect this to develop in the coming years
My idea is simple : Trump will want semi-conductors built in the US (to be less dependent on Taiwan which could be an issue at any moment with China right around the corner)even though the company is in rough shape I think the US government could potentially give it a push to accelerate its foundry business. That is what I'm betting on
Also, Trump will only do four years. But knowing how important semis will be in the future, I don't think the next governments will change their mind regarding semis. So I am not too worried about changes in policy or else
The risk is unbalanced : there is more upside potential than downside to me. That is why I'm in.
I do expect this to develop in the coming years
KDK
There was inflation data for USD half an hour ago. It was high but I guess if USD sold off that means the market thinks the FED will cut rates. I disagree. Their target inflation to cut is 2%. We're at 3.1%
So my guess is we'll continue lower at some point (EURUSD). Maybe not today but in the coming days for sure
Only time will tell now
So my guess is we'll continue lower at some point (EURUSD). Maybe not today but in the coming days for sure
Only time will tell now
KDK
Day trader and musician. I do my best to beat the market even though it's kind of a b**ch haha
From the south west of France. The best food in the world comes with the biggest taxes
Don't hesitate to come talk to me about EURUSD. I'd love to discuss with talented people here !
I only trade that pair manually. Everything else is via an EA of some sort :)
From the south west of France. The best food in the world comes with the biggest taxes
Don't hesitate to come talk to me about EURUSD. I'd love to discuss with talented people here !
I only trade that pair manually. Everything else is via an EA of some sort :)