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what is it exactly that determines the value of a currency

what is it exactly that determines the value of a currency, Im guessing its mostly supply and demand, but is there other factors, like dose economic data have a direct effect on price or is it just the peoples reaction to the news, and also what changes the value when the markets closed , like what

is this a garanteed winning trade set up?

I was just wondering if anyone has any experience with this trading set up, at the end of the trading week, if you were to place a buy order to trigger (if the price goes up) just above, or if you place a sell order to trigger (if the price goes down) just below, then after the new week starts will