FollowTheFranc

USD/CHF — October 2026 Outlook A Two-Half Month: Rally First… Then a Real Test of the Trend 📌 Where does the pair stand now? USD/CHF enters October after a very strong September rally. The pair closed August near 0.8084 and ended September around 0.8351, gaining roughly 3.3% in one month, while reaching the 0.8360–0.8385 area during the final days of September. More important than the number itself is the way the rally developed: the move was persistent, and the pair is now testing an important resistance zone around 0.8385–0.8400. This is where my main October thesis begins: «I do not expect the broader bullish move to end immediately. Instead, I expect the dollar to attempt to extend the rally first, followed by a test of whether buyers still have enough strength to push the pair higher.» Therefore, I see October as a two-half month: 🟢 First half: an attempt to extend the rally. 🔴 Second half: a potential correction and profit-taking, followed by an attempt to recover. --- 🟢 Week 1 — October 5–9 Momentum Continues… But 0.8400 Is the Test After the strength seen at the end of September, I see no strong technical reason to assume an immediate reversal during the first few days of October. At the same time, the pair is now very close to an important resistance zone. Monday, October 5 I expect a positive opening bias, with the market attempting to hold the elevated levels reached at the end of September. We may see intraday pullbacks, but my base scenario is for buyers to remain in control as long as the bullish structure is preserved. Tuesday, October 6 The upside pressure could continue, with another attempt to approach 0.8400. However, I do not necessarily expect a clean and sustained breakout on the first attempt. Wednesday, October 7 This is an important day because the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting are scheduled for release. As a result, the market may shift from directional trading to higher volatility. If the Fed minutes maintain support for the dollar, another attempt to move higher could follow. If the minutes sound more cautious than expected, the first meaningful corrective pressure could appear. Thursday, October 8 & Friday, October 9 If the pair manages to break above 0.8385–0.8400 and hold there, the move could extend toward higher levels. If the breakout fails, however, profit-taking could begin to emerge. Weekly view: 🟢 Bullish bias at the beginning of the week, ⚠️ but 0.8385–0.8400 is the first serious test. --- 🟡 Week 2 — October 12–16 The Real Test Begins This week is different from the first because the market will face several major U.S. economic releases. U.S. CPI is scheduled for October 14, followed by PPI on October 15. For this reason, I do not want to treat this week as if its direction can be determined from candles alone. Monday, October 12 & Tuesday, October 13 The pair may continue attempting to move higher or consolidate near the recent highs. Price action could become less clear ahead of the inflation data. Wednesday, October 14 A high-risk day for this scenario. The CPI release could rapidly change expectations for U.S. monetary policy. If inflation comes in significantly hotter than expected, the dollar could receive another boost and USD/CHF could make a strong attempt to break above 0.8400. If inflation comes in significantly weaker than expected, this could be the moment when profit-taking and the correction I am looking for begin. Thursday, October 15 PPI data will provide another piece of information about price pressures. Therefore, I would expect potentially higher volatility rather than simply another quiet continuation of the rally. Friday, October 16 If the pair fails to establish itself above 0.8400, the probability of additional end-of-week profit-taking could increase. This could provide the first clear indication that buyers are no longer controlling the market as easily as they did during September. Weekly view: 🟢 Bullish bias at the beginning of the week, ⚠️ but October 14–15 could become a turning point, 🔴 and failure to hold above 0.8400 could open the door to a larger correction. --- 🔴 Week 3 — October 19–23 The Week I Am Watching Most Closely If hesitation appears during Week 2, I believe Week 3 is the period when that hesitation could turn into a more visible correction. I am not talking about a collapse in the broader trend. I am talking about a normal corrective move following a rally in which prices have risen rapidly. Monday, October 19 The week could begin with clear selling pressure if the pair has failed to establish itself above 0.8400. At this point, the 0.8300 area becomes particularly important. Tuesday, October 20 If selling pressure continues, the market could begin unwinding a larger portion of the positions accumulated during the previous rally. The move could transition from simple profit-taking into a more clearly defined technical correction. Wednesday, October 21 A temporary rebound is possible. However, I would consider it a rebound within the correction, rather than a confirmed return to the bullish trend, unless price manages to reclaim the lost resistance levels. Thursday, October 22 If the pair remains below the key resistance zones, selling pressure could return. Friday, October 23 The week could end near the corrective low, or the pair could begin forming a new base. Weekly view: 🔴 This is the week in which I expect the correction to become more visible. But the word correction is important: «I am not expecting a USD/CHF collapse. I am expecting a pullback within a broader trend that has reached the point where it needs to be tested.» --- 🟢 Week 4 — October 26–30 The Correction Faces Its Biggest Test After a week of selling pressure, the key question becomes: Has the correction ended? Or has the market started a new bearish trend? This is where the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 becomes a major factor. Monday, October 26 Some selling pressure could continue at the beginning of the week, particularly if the pair has failed to reclaim the support levels it previously lost. Tuesday, October 27 The FOMC meeting begins. From this point onward, relying on technical analysis alone would be a mistake. Wednesday, October 28 The Fed decision and press conference could determine the direction of the final part of the month. If the Fed's message is supportive of the dollar, this could become a starting point for buyers to return. If the message shifts expectations toward a more accommodative policy path, the correction could extend. Thursday, October 29 & Friday, October 30 If the pair successfully forms a higher low and reclaims short-term resistance levels, we could see a gradual return of buyers. On the other hand, a break below major support followed by a failure to recover quickly would weaken the recovery scenario. Weekly view: 🟡 The beginning of the week could remain volatile, 🟢 followed by a potential base-building process and gradual recovery, ⚠️ but the FOMC meeting could completely change this scenario. --- 📊 Base-Case Scenario for October Period| Base-Case Scenario October 1–9| 🟢 Continued upside and a test of 0.8400 October 12–16| 🟡 Rally/consolidation followed by possible signs of hesitation October 19–23| 🔴 Correction and profit-taking October 26–30| 🟡 Attempt to form a low, followed by a potential recovery --- 🎯 Key Levels I Will Be Watching 0.8400 The most important level at the beginning of the month. A breakout followed by sustained trading above it would indicate that buyers remain in control. Repeated rejection from this area, however, could mark the beginning of profit-taking. 0.8300 An important support zone if the correction begins. A clear daily close below it would be much more significant than a temporary intraday break. 0.8250 A deeper support area. Reaching this level would indicate that the correction has become larger than a simple pullback following the test of 0.8400. 0.8400 → 0.8500 If USD/CHF breaks above 0.8400 decisively and establishes it as support, the corrective scenario I am looking for could be delayed. Therefore, I will not treat 0.8400 as a guaranteed ceiling. It is a test zone. --- ⚠️ What Would Invalidate This View? This is, for me, more important than the forecast itself. If I am wrong, I want it to be clear when and why. The bullish scenario weakens if: - The pair begins closing below 0.8300 on a daily basis. - The dollar fails to benefit from supportive U.S. economic data. - Expectations for U.S. monetary policy shift clearly toward lower rates. - The Swiss franc shows unexpected and sustained strength. The corrective scenario weakens if: - USD/CHF breaks above 0.8400 and holds there. - The pair continues forming higher highs and higher lows without clear signs of weakness. - Strong U.S. data leads to a significant repricing of interest-rate expectations in favor of the dollar. - Geopolitical developments create a different reaction in the dollar-franc relationship. --- 🌍 The Factor That Could Change Everything USD/CHF is not simply a story of the dollar versus the franc. The Swiss franc is a safe-haven currency, meaning that a major geopolitical escalation could rapidly change the relationship. At the same time, energy prices can influence inflation and central-bank expectations. This is particularly relevant now because the SNB has indicated that higher energy prices have pushed up its inflation projections, while keeping its policy rate at 0%. Therefore, during October I will be watching three forces together: The U.S. dollar + U.S. Treasury yields + the Swiss franc's safe-haven behavior. --- 🧭 Final Scenario My base view for October 2026 is: «Rally first → test of 0.8400 → hesitation → correction in the second half → potential recovery toward the end of the month.» But I do not treat this as a guaranteed timetable. The correction could happen before October 19. It could be delayed until after the Federal Reserve meeting. And it may not happen at all if USD/CHF breaks above 0.8400 and successfully turns that former resistance into support. That is why the value of this forecast is not in predicting every single daily candle. That would be unrealistic. The real value is defining in advance: What is the scenario I expect? Which levels will confirm it? And which levels will prove that I was wrong? At the end of October, I will return to this same post and compare the forecast with reality, day by day, including what worked and what did not, without rewriting the story after the result is known. This is a personal analytical view, not investment advice. Wishing you a disciplined October — and above all, disciplined risk management.

USDCHF only 🇨🇭 | Demo Account | Following the Swiss move step by step. Education & analysis, not signals.