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Percentile of Historical Volatility and Corr

Percentile of Historical Volatility and Correlation Coefficient shows if the asset currently is cheap or expensive based on the “usual” volatility. It is used to determine a good entry point. It has two indicators built in. Historical Volatility is ranked percentile wise and its correlation to price action which gives an indication of the direction of a future move. Together the both indicators can give good entries and direction.

 

Historical Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an asset over a given period (Sample Size Historical Volatility). In this indicator the volatility model is calculated as the standard deviation of returns. Weighted with percentile with the given period (Sample Size Percentile). It shows the percentage of candles over the last selected period (Sample Size Percentile) where Historic Volatility was traded below the current level.

That means if PHV (Percentile of Historical Volatility) is at 5%, it was traded only 5% of the time (within percentile period) below that level. If PHV is above 80% it indicates, that historical volatility is higher than usual. So, a strategy could be, enter at a very low PHV, as it will likely expand and a bigger move will happen.

The indicator values are displayed as Columns and range from 0 to 100 [%]. It is NOT a directional indicator, only together with Correlation it is possible to determine direction.

 

Correlation Coefficient is shown in the panel below the PHV to correlate the non-directional indicator to price, to make it directional. Traditional Pearson Correlation is used. It is shown as line and scaled. Usually, it goes from -1 to 1, for representation it is scaled to -100 to 0 (so -50 is zero line). The correlation line is coloured from the calculated p-value, based on significance confidence level of 0.05 (5%). If the correlation line turns “green” is shows significant positive correlation of PHV to price. If it turns “red” significant negative correlation is determined.

 

Example Strategies:

• PHV rising (percentile of historical volatility increasing) AND significant positive correlation = possible larger movement in price action to the upside expected (LONG)

• PHV rising (percentile of historical volatility increasing) AND significant negative correlation = possible larger movement in price action to the downside expected (SHORT)

• PHV falling (percentile of historical volatility decreasing) AND negative correlation = price will likely move slowly up (LONG)

• PHV falling (percentile of historical volatility decreasing) AND positive correlation = price will likely move slowly down (SHORT)

 

The Input Settings:

Sample Size Historical Volatility: Default 10, length of periods back to calculated historical volatility.

Sample Size Percentile: Default 100 (Recommendation use power of Sample Size Historical Volatility), length of periods back to calculated percentile of historical volatility.

Sample Size Correlation: Default 10, length of periods back to calculated correlation of PHV and Price


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The Missing Edge You Need To Catch Breakouts Like A Pro. Follow a step-by-step system that detects the most powerful breakouts! Discover market patterns that generate massive rewards based on a proven and tested strategy. Unlock Your Serious Edge Important information here www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/723208 The Reliable Expert Advisor Version Automate Breakout EDGE signals using "EA Breakout EDGE" Click Here Have access to the game changing strategy that will take your trading to the n
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Price Action Finder MT5
Siarhei Vashchylka
5 (2)
The Price Action finder indicator displays Price action patterns on the price chart. Currently, the indicator contains such patterns as: Pin Bar (Pin) Outside bar (OB) Inside bar (IB) PPR Force bar The hanged man (HM) Inverted hammer (HR) The number of patterns will be replenished with other patterns of candlestick analysis. External parameters: FB  -  Display or not the force bar pattern. PPR  - Display or not the PPR pattern. OB  -  Display or not  the External bar pattern. OBCL  -  Dis
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Introduction to X3 Chart Pattern Scanner X3 Chart Pattern Scanner is the non-repainting and non-lagging indicator detecting X3 chart patterns including Harmonic pattern, Elliott Wave pattern, X3 patterns, and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Historical patterns match with signal patterns. Hence, you can readily develop the solid trading strategy in your chart. More importantly, this superb pattern scanner can detect the optimal pattern of its kind. In addition, you can switch on and off individua
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Distribution Range Bands gives a prediction of the amount, how much the asset is moving from its current price. The range bands give probabilities, that the candle close will not exceed this certain price level. It is also called the expected move for the current candle close.   This Indicator is based on statistical methods, probabilities and volatility. Asset price is assumed to follow a log-normal distributed. Therefore, log returns are used in this indicator to determine the distribution, as
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The z-score of returns and price indicator (ZRP) shows the z-score of the log returns which were assumed to follow a normal distribution and the z-score of the price. Returns are mean reverting and assumed to follow a normal distribution, therefore z-score calculation of returns is more reliable than z-score on price, as price is NOT mean reverting and follow NOT a normal distribution but a log-normal distribution.   Z-score measures the distance to the mean in terms of standard deviation. If z
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Lambda Drift
Florian Nuebling
3.67 (3)
This Oscillator describes the drift µ of an asset, as part of the geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). As a data basis the mean reverting log returns of the asset price is considered. It gives the percentile of drift directional. For instance, a value of 0.05 means a drift of 5%, based on the selected sample size. If the value is positive, drift to higher asset values is determined. Looking at larger timeframes mostly positive drift can be observed, as we all are also investors. Negative drift is r
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