Gold Trend Trio

Gold Trend Trio is a rule-based trend-following Expert Advisor for Gold (XAUUSD) on the H4 timeframe. It runs three independent EMA systems in parallel so that it catches trends of different speed, and uses the daily chart to trade only in the direction of the larger trend.

How it trades

- Three systems: A = EMA 20/50, B = EMA 10/30, C = EMA 30/100 (H4). Each system holds at most one position; up to three positions can be open at the same time (hedging accounts). On netting accounts the EA automatically runs one position at a time.

- Direction filter: longs only when the last closed daily candle is above the daily EMA 50; shorts only when it is below the daily EMA 50 and the EMA 50 is falling.

- Entry: when the H4 close crosses the fast EMA in the trend direction, the EA enters at the open of the next bar.

- Exit: initial stop at 2 x ATR(14); trailing stop at 2 x ATR (3 x ATR when volatility is above its 50-bar average) from the best price, moved only in the favourable direction; time exit after 60 H4 bars. No take profit - profits are left to run.

- Position sizing: fixed lot per system, or risk % of balance (lot calculated from the stop distance; trades are skipped when the minimum lot would exceed the chosen risk).

- The stop loss is placed on the server with every order, so the account is protected even if the terminal disconnects.

What it is not

No martingale, no grid, no averaging, no hedging tricks, no news trading, no high-frequency scalping. Win rate is around 40 %; the edge comes from letting winners run (average winner about 1.3 R vs average loser about 0.6 R). Expect losing streaks of 10-20 trades and flat periods of several months.

Back-test summary (XAUUSD H4, real minute data, 2016-10 to 2026-10, risk 2 % per trade)

- About 130 trades per year (about 2.5 per week)

- Profit factor 1.17-1.28 including swap (1.32 without swap); the result depends heavily on the broker's gold swap

- 10 out of 11 calendar years positive before swap; 2018 was a losing year in every setting

- Maximum drawdown of the balance: 50-63 % with 2 % risk and three systems. Use lower risk (0.5-1 %) or fewer systems if you want smaller drawdowns.

- Most of the profit comes from a few strong trend months (2020, 2024-2026). In quiet, range-bound markets the EA loses slowly.

Risk presets (MT5 Strategy Tester, XAUUSD H4, 2016-10 to 2026-10, 1-minute OHLC, spread and swap included)

Same strategy and default settings; only "Risk per trade" changes.

- LOW: 0.5 % risk per trade, start 20 000 USD: +48 % in 10 years, profit factor 1.19, max balance drawdown 20 %, 1 318 trades

- MEDIUM: 1 % risk per trade, start 10 000 USD: +102 %, profit factor 1.19, max balance drawdown 36 %, 1 319 trades

- HIGH: 2 % risk per trade, start 10 000 USD: +210 %, profit factor 1.18, max balance drawdown 63 %, 1 322 trades

Recommended balance with current gold volatility: LOW 20 000 USD, MEDIUM 10 000 USD, HIGH 5 000 USD. With a smaller balance the minimum lot (0.01) is larger than the chosen risk and many signals are skipped.

All presets use "Max spread in points" = 150 (1.50 USD on a 2-decimal gold quote; use 1500 if your broker quotes gold with 3 decimals). Without this limit the 10-year profit factor drops from 1.18 to 1.14.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged products involves a high risk of loss.

Recommended settings

- Symbol: XAUUSD (GOLD), timeframe H4, any broker with a reasonable gold spread (50 points / 0.50 USD or less)

- Minimum deposit: 1 000 USD for fixed 0.01 lot per system; for the risk-% mode see the recommended balance of each preset above

- Leverage 1:100 or higher is sufficient; margin usage is small

- Keep the terminal running 24/5 (VPS recommended). The EA needs the first tick of each new H4 bar.

- Default inputs are the tested settings. Do not optimise the EMA periods - they were chosen for robustness, not for the best back-test.

Inputs

- Fixed lot per system (0.01): used when Risk % = 0

- Risk per trade, % of balance (0): lot from stop distance; 0 = fixed lot

- Maximum lot (1.0): cap per position

- System A / B / C (on): EMA 20/50, 10/30, 30/100

- ATR period (14): H4 ATR for stop and trailing

- Initial stop (2.0 x ATR)

- Trailing stop, low / high volatility (2.0 / 3.0 x ATR): switched by ATR vs its 50-bar average

- Time exit (60 bars): closes a position after 60 H4 bars

- Daily EMA filter / period (on / 50): direction filter

- Magic number (20261020): +0/+1/+2 per system

- Max spread in points (0): 0 = no limit; 150 recommended for a 2-decimal gold quote

- Max deviation in points (50)

- Write log (off): CSV in MQL5\Files

Support

Questions and bug reports through the product comments. Updates are free for buyers.