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Support And Resistance Probabilities

The script evaluates the probability of the breakout of support and resistance lines. It will be useful for traders who use chart analysis. Support and resistance lines should be drawn by a user. Line templates are added during script start. Resistance breakout refers to the event "when the closing price is above the resistance line". Support breakout refers to the event "when the closing price is below the support line". The dependence of future probability on time is plotted on the chart. The vertical line on the chart sets the time, for which the probability table is displayed. You can choose the time by moving the vertical line.

The probabilities of the following events are displayed for the time selected by the user:

  • price above the resistance line
  • price below the support line
  • price between the support and resistance lines

These three events cover all possible scenarios of price movement, i.e. they constitute a complete group of events.

Knowing the probabilities will help you to set Stop Loss, Take Profit and limit orders.

The method of calculation is based on the Black—Scholes model, which assumes a random character of the movement and the lognormal distribution of symbol price increments. The model takes into account trend, volatility and duration of the time interval for which the probability is evaluated.


Input Parameters

  • Period (bars) - the number of bars used for analyzing trend and volatility
  • distance to the comment from the left - the distance in pixels
  • distance to the comment from the top - the distance in pixels


Instructions

The script works on any timeframe and any currency pair. Select the support (green) and resistance (red) line and set them on the price chart. Lines can form any shapes - channels, triangles, wedges, or have an arbitrary location and inclination. Bar chart shows the probability of the event "above the resistance line" and "below the support line." The table shows the values ​​corresponding to the time marked by a vertical line. By selecting and moving this line, you can choose a time moment in the future.

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