On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 31
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I got to the computer...
What are you arguing with, Michael?
here's your phrase:
"(like for the EUR exchange rate to change 1000-fold, the economy needs to shrink 1000-fold) - that's a psychiatrist, because reality has nothing to do with these fantasies, not even )))"
If you print lots of money in the country and inject it into the economy, the exchange rate of that money will fall? Print 10 times as much money and it will become 10 times cheaper.
Imagine the opposite. The amount of money is fixed and the size of the economy changes.
It is not my fault that you cannot imagine the opposite.
Greece's economy collapsed. The crisis started. Experts claimed that if Greece had kept its old currency, the drachma, the country would have gotten away with just a depreciation. And there would not have been so much turmoil.
Japan's economy grew very rapidly in the second half of the last century. During this time, the Japanese yen also grew strongly.
economy goes down - the currency goes down, economy goes up - the currency goes up.
what is there to understand?
What are you arguing with, Mikheil?
here is your phrase:
"(like, for the euro exchange rate to change by 1000 times, the economy must shrink by 1000 times) - that's a psychiatrist, because reality has nothing to do with these fantasies, at all))"
if you print lots of money in a country and put it into the economy, the rate of money will fall? Print 10 times as much money and it will become 10 times cheaper.
Imagine the opposite. The amount of money is fixed and the size of the economy changes.
It is not my fault that you cannot imagine the opposite.
Greece's economy collapsed. The crisis started. Experts claimed that if Greece had kept its old currency, the drachma, the country would have gotten away with just a depreciation. And there would not have been so much turmoil.
Japan's economy grew very rapidly in the second half of the last century. During that time, the Japanese yen also grew strongly.
economy goes down - the currency goes down, economy goes up - the currency goes up.
what is there to understand?
The purchasing power of money is not directly related to its volume. There is the speed of circulation, the sizeand structure of the market, and a lot of other things.
If you print 10 times more money, it might become 5 times cheaper, or 1,000 times cheaper. They just drop in price.) If you take non-fantastic 10x figures, you can imagine a scenario where "printing" extra % will not cause falls.
If you print 10 times as much money, it can go down in price by a factor of 5 or 1,000. It will just get cheaper :-)
Of course, nothing works like that in economics. Of course, it will not be exactly 10 times cheaper.
what are you arguing about, mikhail?
here's your phrase:
"(like for the EUR exchange rate to change by 1000 times the economy needs to shrink by 1000 times) - that's a shrink, because reality has nothing to do with fantasies)))
If you print a lot of money in a country and inject it into the economy, the exchange rate of money will fall? 10 times more money printed and it will become 10 times cheaper.
It's a funny misconception. Even the examples of the Fed and ECB "printing" trillions of dollars and euros (and now the Fed has agreed to another QE of almost a hundred billion dollars a month out of thin air - that's not QE at all), and the exchange rate is stable - does not suggest anything to Dunminchik ... and that's a shame. For how they do the trick is extremely important.
the economy falls - the national currency falls, the economy grows - the national currency grows.
what is there to understand?
And you can think of a truly diabolical thing: economy falls (company stocks) - currency (dollar) rises, dollar falls - stocks rise (because their price is calculated in cheapening dollars), i.e. stock market / economy ) But danminchik does not need these considerations, he is as simple as a ruble twenty.
The purchasing power of money is not directly related to its volume. There is the speed of circulation, the size and structure of the market, and a lot of other things.
If you print 10 times more money, it could become 5 times cheaper, or 1,000 times cheaper. They just drop in price.) If you take non-fantastic 10x figures, you can imagine a scenario where "printing" extra % will not cause falls.
thoughts aloud (the forum is like a notebook)
By the way, the nuances of "triangles" are more interesting to look at when spreads are taken into account.
technically the minimum spread to a trader = 1 _Point, and not all have 5 digits :-) Inside this spread is traded by the algorithm or MM personally, not allowing excessive widening or narrowing at 0. That is, you can consider a conditional spread of 3 points.
Hence, we can somehow calculate not even probabilities, but possibilities of quotes changing one another. I bet the "magic of round numbers" and multiplicity of values will appear there
my thoughts out loud (forum is like a notebook)
By the way, the nuances of "triangles" are more interesting to look at when the spreads are taken into account.
technically the minimum spread for a trader = 1 _Point, and not all have 5 digits :-) Inside this spread is traded by an algorithm or MM personally, not allowing excessive widening or narrowing at 0. So you can consider a conditional spread of 3 points.
Hence, we can somehow calculate not even probabilities, but possibilities of quotes changing one another. I bet the "magic of round numbers" and multiplicity of values will appear there
I should add that triangles and pyramids (and other shapes) are very interesting.
However, there is one point, "probably" the quotes come to the terminal with some delay.
I compared 3 years ago in real time a few brokerage companies - a couple of them in terminals and one on the server API - all tick movements are different, and also the chart itself)))
I don't know who I was monitoring, I just can't recall.
But the magic was definitely there )))
I should add that triangles and pyramids (and other shapes) are generally very interesting.
However, there is one point, "probably" the quotes come into the terminal with some delay and undergo some processing.
I compared 3 years ago several brokerage companies in real time - a couple of them in terminals and one on the server API - all tick movements are different, and also the chart itself)))
I don't know who I was monitoring, I just can't remember.
But the magic was definitely there )))
i just wrote in another forum thread : https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/86386/page1590#comment_14557882
I do not even think it is real for currencies. More accurately, it's not real at all and it's not "normal" at all (not in terms of distributions either).
Because there is no centre. There is no single source of ticks and no guarantee that they will reach the user. Not only is the "hypothetical flow of ticks" of a particular server a product of aggregation of other servers, but this flow is also thinned by both server and terminal for technical reasons.
The statistical characteristics of the ticks depend on the specific DC, its peers and their software.just now posted in another forum thread : https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/86386/page1590#comment_14557882
Interesting thread! Quite a constructive dialogue )) That's right...
I've been collecting and analyzing ticks for a long time for HFT, as I thought I was ready. But of course turned out not to be ready. The ticks were pouring heavily and I had an impression that someone at the other side was drawing them for me on purpose, each time adjusting their behavior to those order structures, which I had opened ))) therefore no "HFT" in my environment has worked out. So really, everyone's "instrument readings" are different.
Interesting thread! Quite a constructive dialogue )) Indeed...
I've been collecting and analyzing ticks for a long time for HFT, as I thought I was ready. But of course turned out not to be ready. The ticks were pouring heavily and I had an impression that someone at the other side was drawing them for me on purpose, each time adjusting their behavior to those order structures, which I had opened ))) therefore no "HFT" in my environment has worked out. So really, everyone's "instrument readings" are different.
but this brings up some strange ideas...
Let's say you trade large volumes in a large centre, overnight flotsam. I trade in a local DC that takes liquidity from the same centre. Then if I get information about your orders before the DC receives their results, then I get a chance to at least narrow the spread, and even unwittingly slip.
This is of course a wild fantasy, you have no volumes, no one will give me these data and no technical conditions, but if someone works this way, it is detectable and we may have a second derivative