On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 26
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
When, for a man, forex is fun, he takes his time, prolongs his pleasure, gets high from it, and this increases life expectancy. It is known that all long-livers never rushed, never showed discontent, always lived in harmony with themselves and others. What do you think I will die and will not have time to earn all the money of the world? Do you care? Are you worried about me?)
I'm not worried about you.
Because in my life I have met some smart young people as well as some big-headed fools.
I'm not worried about you.
Because in my life I have met smart young men as well as great old fools.
I feel sorry for you, you can't rise up through good and glorious deeds, you try to rise up by humiliating others.
Seriously? A millionaire, maybe.)
All you have to do is read third-party forums like alp or lab and -
It's clear that the snot up and down 10,000 points flew fast.
All absolutely everyone was shaken out.
In the best case those who somehow survived, but quotes were considered non-market - they could count on the cancellation of transactions)))
Well since you love and discuss the pound here-
Fresh, 2019.12.12
Thank you!!! Keep us posted. Just make screenshots more carefully, don't cut data on axes for example )))) and take a bigger period, there are more scary sticks )))
And about the snot - you must have been with the wrong team.
Thank you! Keep us informed. But make screenshots more carefully, do not cut out the data on axes for example ))))) and take a bigger period, there are more horrible sticks )))
And about the snot - you must have been with the wrong team.
There is no problem with the account history at the time.
You first put up a statement as a "good earner" on the franc, and then talk about where I cut. and then we'll talk about what and where I cut)))
Now there is no problem with the account history at the dtz.
You first put up a statement like you made "good money" on the franc. And then we'll talk about what and where I cut))))
Now? in 2015 or what year was it? You're mixed up about something uncle )))
And then stop polluting the thread with your venom)) Go to sleep better and have a dream about the creamy grail.
I'm done with you. Good luck to you.
Now? In 2015 or what year was that? You got it all mixed up )))
And then stop polluting the thread with your venom ))) Go to sleep better and have a dream about the creamy grail.
I'm done with you. Good luck.
Yeah.
Take it easy.
I'll come in for a laugh next time and maybe in another thread.
And the best part may not be you, auntie.
)))
Went to bed around 7am Moscow, only came back to look at the market now.What do we see (not half a day, but a day):
The misalignment did not decrease, but increased. Well, no one has forbidden that, of course. Let's open again in the same direction: with the ratio of lots 8 to 3, respectively, EURUSD - buy, GBPUSD - sell.
P.S. Strictly speaking, the profit was already there - just small - because the mismatch was small at trade opening - and it was possible and necessary to close, but I was asleep at that time. This moment (when the black curves came close to the red ones corresponds to the reference i approximately = 180 in the charts above).
Dude, you decided to show us martingale here?
Went to bed around 7 am Moscow time, came back to look at the market only now. What do we see (let's show not half a day, but a day):
The misalignment did not decrease, but increased. Well, no one has forbidden that, of course. Let's open again in the same direction: with the ratio of lots 8 to 3, respectively, EURUSD - buy, GBPUSD - sell.
P.S. Strictly speaking, the profit was already there - just a small one - as the mismatch was small when the trades were opened - and one could and should have closed, but I was asleep at the time. This moment (when the black curves came close to the red ones corresponds to the reference i approximately = 180 in the charts above).
You'll never guess when to close.
Good afternoon.
On the eve of the new year, I have decided to make one of the obvious conclusions about the nature of the market public. This is particularly useful as there are very few any physically meaningful ideas on the forum.
Today I intend to refute with simple considerations one of the common fallacies, that a chart of an arbitrarily taken currency pair has equal probabilities (50% each) of going up and down when considered over a sufficiently long time interval.
Let us consider 289 samples in the M5 timeframe (i.e. 1 day) of EURUSD and GBPUSD price charts:
of course the probability is not equal.
for example the eurodollar is at 1.0000.
what is the probability that it will go up by 10,000 points?
what is the probability that it will fall by 10,000 points (i.e., it will start to be worth zero)?
we should look not at how many points it rose, but at how many times.
The probability that the Eurodollar rises by 10000 points is the same as the probability that it falls by 5000 points.
in the first case it would double, and in the second case it would shrink by half.
of course the probability is not equal.
for example the eurodollar is at 1.0000.
what is the probability that it will rise by 10,000 pips?
what is the probability that it will fall by 10,000 points (i.e., it will be worth zero)?
we should look not at how many points it rose, but at how many times.
the probability that the Eurodollar rises 10,000 pips is the same as the probability that it falls 5,000 pips.
in the first case it would double, and in the second case it would shrink by half.
Dear @danminin, you are mistaken. I gave the correct ratios at the beginning of the branch, and explained their physical meaning. Equal - profits and losses, from upward and downward moves, just like that and not otherwise. In your model, a movement from an initial level of EURUSD = 1 "up" by 1, i.e. by 10,000 pips equal to 0.0001, would result in a profit of 10,000 "dollar pips", in my terms (in the sense that the quote currency is the dollar). A move down from the initial level 1 "down" by 5000 "pips" of the value 0.0001 will cause a loss of 5000 "dollar pips". Further it is very important to understand what changed that caused the rate change. Let's consider a hypothetical situation where the euro (numerator of this EUR/USD pair) did not change at all, and all changes were caused only by changes of the denominator (USD). In such a scenario, the dollar at the final exchange rate EURUSD = 2 (i.e. USDEUR = 0.5) and the dollar at the final rate EURUSD = 0.5 (i.e. USDEUR = 2) differ by 4 (!) times in value (in the first case 10 000 profit, in the second case 5000 points loss, but a point value in the first case is 4 (!) times less). In fact, in this scenario of constancy EUR in the first case the profit is 10000*0,25 = 2500 parrots, and in the second case the loss is 5000*1 = 5000 parrots, because 5000 and 2500 parrots are not equal, their probability is never equal (thus, I showed "on the fingers" the fallacy of your reasoning for a particular case, so it is incorrect in general). Consider other scenarios on your own, for example the other extreme case where the EURUSD change is only caused by the EUR. Re-read the beginning of the thread again, the general relationships are given there.
The night passed quietly... there is no significant mismatch (between the black curve - ED with the coefficient of 2.786, and the blue curve - PD, with the coefficient of 1 and a shift to 1.786) ... do not enter the market...