|
9+ 年
经验
|
0
产品
|
0
演示版
|
|
0
工作
|
0
信号
|
0
订阅者
|
Orcun Tezel
Japan's 2014-15 gasoline, gasoil refining margins at multi-year highs
Japanese refiners saw their refining margins widen in fiscal 2014-15 (April-March) following government-led capacity cuts at the end of March 2014, but refiners collectively reported billions of dollars in inventory losses as crude oil prices plunged by around 40% in the second half of the fiscal year.
Looking ahead, Japanese refiners' refining margins will continue improving from a year ago in fiscal 2015-16 if crude oil prices stay in the range of around $60-$70/barrel, said Hidetoshi Shioda, senior analyst at Japan's SMBC Nikko Securities.
The refiners' estimated margins for gasoline and gasoil, which together account for roughly half of domestic oil demand, hit multi-year highs in 2014-15 -- a four-year high for gasoline and a three-year high for gasoil.
Besides capacity cuts, the rise in refining margins was also driven by a change in the way refiners calculate their wholesale product prices.
Japanese refiners trimmed their overall refining capacity by 520,000 b/d to 3.95 million b/d as of March 31, 2014, in line with government regulations that required refiners to raise their residue cracking ratios either by cutting CDU capacity or by raising cracking capacity. Most opted for the former.
Separately, over April-June 2014, several Japanese refiners adopted for a new cost-based pricing system under which weekly changes in their wholesale product prices are linked to movements in international crude benchmarks such as Dubai, rather than being indexed to domestic oil product benchmarks.
Margins for gasoline, kerosene, gasoil and A-fuel oil (a blend of gasoil and fuel oil in a 90:10 ratio) for the largest Japanese refiner, JX Nippon Oil & Energy, averaged Yen 8.5/liter (7 cents/liter or $10.77/b) in fiscal 2014-15, up about Yen 2/l or 31% year on year, according to Isao Matsushita, outgoing JX Holdings president.
GASOLINE, GASOIL MARGINS
Gasoline and gasoil margins were volatile in the fiscal year ended March 31, with refiners enjoying relatively stable margins in the first half of the fiscal year due to heavy turnarounds, but coming under pressure from sharp drops in crude and products prices in the second half of the year.
Japan's gasoline margin was estimated at Yen 17.1/liter (14 cents/liter or $21.67/b) in the fiscal year ended March 31, according to an industry calculation.
The estimated gasoline margin in fiscal 2014-15 was up from Yen 13.7/l the previous fiscal year and is the highest since Yen 16.6/l in 2010-11.
Widening the gasoline refining margin by around Yen 3/l year on year would increase revenue by more $1 billion on total domestic gasoline sales, when gasoline demand is at least 920,000 b/d, according to industry sources.
The estimated gasoil margin was Yen 15.7/l in fiscal 2014-15.
That is up from Yen 13.2/l the previous fiscal year and the highest since Yen 15.9/l in fiscal 2011-12, according to the industry calculation.
The industry calculates the refining margin as a difference between the pre-tax wholesale price of the product and the pre-tax CIF crude import price.
SLOWING DOMESTIC SALES
While margins improved, Japanese refiners reported year-on-year decreases in their domestic sales mainly due to sluggish demand for gasoline and fuel oil during Japan's summer oil demand season over July-September, when the country was hit by stormy weather.
JX Holdings sold 53.23 million kiloliters, or 917,277 b/d, of oil products in the domestic market in fiscal 2014-15 (April-March), down 10.3% year-on-year in kl terms.
In the fiscal year ended March 31, downstream arm JX Nippon Oil & Energy's gasoline sales slid 6.5% year on year to 17.67 million kl while its sales of fuel for power generation dropped 20.1% from a year ago to 5.01 million kl, the company said.
Idemitsu Kosan sold 24.84 million kiloliters, or 428,051 b/d, of oil products in the domestic market in fiscal 2014-15, down 4.2% year on year in kl terms, marking the second consecutive year-on-year drop.
The annual decline was attributable to sluggish gasoline sales, which showed a 3.5% year-on-year fall to 8.199 million kiloliters or 141,288 b/d, resulting from stormy weather during Japan's peak summer driving season.
Idemitsu's 2014-15 domestic oil products sales were also dented by reduced demand for kerosene, which showed a 6.5% drop to 2.95 million kl, as a result of warmer-than-usual temperatures during the winter heating oil demand season, the company said.
The summer and winter weather also played a role in trimming Idemitsu's fuel oil demand for power generation by 21.2% year on year to 2.72 million kl in the fiscal year ended March 31.
Strong transport demand for trucks, meanwhile, raised Idemitsu's gasoil demand in 2014-15 by 2.9% from a year ago to 6.153 million kl, it added.
INVENTORY LOSSES
As a result of improved margins, Japanese refiners reported profits in their refining business for 2014-15 after stripping out inventory losses.
For instance, JX Holdings posted an ordinary profit of Yen 72.2 billion in its energy segment in fiscal 2014-15, compared with Yen 7.9 billion ordinary loss a year ago as a result of improved margins for oil products.
Stripping out inventory losses, Idemitsu Kosan also posted an operating profit of Yen 18 billion in its oil products segment in fiscal 2014-15, compared with a Yen 24.2 billion operating loss a year earlier.
But after taking inventory losses into account, JX Holdings posted a net loss of Yen 277.21 billion ($2.3 billion) in fiscal 2014-15 -- its first annual loss since its formation in April 2010 following the merger between Nippon Oil and Nippon Mining Holdings.
It posted a Yen 107.04 billion net profit in fiscal 2013-14. The company suffered inventory losses due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices in the second half of the fiscal year.
Idemitsu also posted a net loss of Yen 137.96 billion in the fiscal year ended March 31, its first annual net loss since going public in fiscal 2006-07.
Idemitsu last reported an annual net loss (Yen 5.9 billion) in fiscal 2004-05. The sharp drop in crude prices led to inventory losses as Japanese refiners are obliged to hold the equivalent of around 70 days' worth of domestic crude and oil product imports as part of Japan's privately held strategic petroleum reserves.
Orçun Tezel
Japanese refiners saw their refining margins widen in fiscal 2014-15 (April-March) following government-led capacity cuts at the end of March 2014, but refiners collectively reported billions of dollars in inventory losses as crude oil prices plunged by around 40% in the second half of the fiscal year.
Looking ahead, Japanese refiners' refining margins will continue improving from a year ago in fiscal 2015-16 if crude oil prices stay in the range of around $60-$70/barrel, said Hidetoshi Shioda, senior analyst at Japan's SMBC Nikko Securities.
The refiners' estimated margins for gasoline and gasoil, which together account for roughly half of domestic oil demand, hit multi-year highs in 2014-15 -- a four-year high for gasoline and a three-year high for gasoil.
Besides capacity cuts, the rise in refining margins was also driven by a change in the way refiners calculate their wholesale product prices.
Japanese refiners trimmed their overall refining capacity by 520,000 b/d to 3.95 million b/d as of March 31, 2014, in line with government regulations that required refiners to raise their residue cracking ratios either by cutting CDU capacity or by raising cracking capacity. Most opted for the former.
Separately, over April-June 2014, several Japanese refiners adopted for a new cost-based pricing system under which weekly changes in their wholesale product prices are linked to movements in international crude benchmarks such as Dubai, rather than being indexed to domestic oil product benchmarks.
Margins for gasoline, kerosene, gasoil and A-fuel oil (a blend of gasoil and fuel oil in a 90:10 ratio) for the largest Japanese refiner, JX Nippon Oil & Energy, averaged Yen 8.5/liter (7 cents/liter or $10.77/b) in fiscal 2014-15, up about Yen 2/l or 31% year on year, according to Isao Matsushita, outgoing JX Holdings president.
GASOLINE, GASOIL MARGINS
Gasoline and gasoil margins were volatile in the fiscal year ended March 31, with refiners enjoying relatively stable margins in the first half of the fiscal year due to heavy turnarounds, but coming under pressure from sharp drops in crude and products prices in the second half of the year.
Japan's gasoline margin was estimated at Yen 17.1/liter (14 cents/liter or $21.67/b) in the fiscal year ended March 31, according to an industry calculation.
The estimated gasoline margin in fiscal 2014-15 was up from Yen 13.7/l the previous fiscal year and is the highest since Yen 16.6/l in 2010-11.
Widening the gasoline refining margin by around Yen 3/l year on year would increase revenue by more $1 billion on total domestic gasoline sales, when gasoline demand is at least 920,000 b/d, according to industry sources.
The estimated gasoil margin was Yen 15.7/l in fiscal 2014-15.
That is up from Yen 13.2/l the previous fiscal year and the highest since Yen 15.9/l in fiscal 2011-12, according to the industry calculation.
The industry calculates the refining margin as a difference between the pre-tax wholesale price of the product and the pre-tax CIF crude import price.
SLOWING DOMESTIC SALES
While margins improved, Japanese refiners reported year-on-year decreases in their domestic sales mainly due to sluggish demand for gasoline and fuel oil during Japan's summer oil demand season over July-September, when the country was hit by stormy weather.
JX Holdings sold 53.23 million kiloliters, or 917,277 b/d, of oil products in the domestic market in fiscal 2014-15 (April-March), down 10.3% year-on-year in kl terms.
In the fiscal year ended March 31, downstream arm JX Nippon Oil & Energy's gasoline sales slid 6.5% year on year to 17.67 million kl while its sales of fuel for power generation dropped 20.1% from a year ago to 5.01 million kl, the company said.
Idemitsu Kosan sold 24.84 million kiloliters, or 428,051 b/d, of oil products in the domestic market in fiscal 2014-15, down 4.2% year on year in kl terms, marking the second consecutive year-on-year drop.
The annual decline was attributable to sluggish gasoline sales, which showed a 3.5% year-on-year fall to 8.199 million kiloliters or 141,288 b/d, resulting from stormy weather during Japan's peak summer driving season.
Idemitsu's 2014-15 domestic oil products sales were also dented by reduced demand for kerosene, which showed a 6.5% drop to 2.95 million kl, as a result of warmer-than-usual temperatures during the winter heating oil demand season, the company said.
The summer and winter weather also played a role in trimming Idemitsu's fuel oil demand for power generation by 21.2% year on year to 2.72 million kl in the fiscal year ended March 31.
Strong transport demand for trucks, meanwhile, raised Idemitsu's gasoil demand in 2014-15 by 2.9% from a year ago to 6.153 million kl, it added.
INVENTORY LOSSES
As a result of improved margins, Japanese refiners reported profits in their refining business for 2014-15 after stripping out inventory losses.
For instance, JX Holdings posted an ordinary profit of Yen 72.2 billion in its energy segment in fiscal 2014-15, compared with Yen 7.9 billion ordinary loss a year ago as a result of improved margins for oil products.
Stripping out inventory losses, Idemitsu Kosan also posted an operating profit of Yen 18 billion in its oil products segment in fiscal 2014-15, compared with a Yen 24.2 billion operating loss a year earlier.
But after taking inventory losses into account, JX Holdings posted a net loss of Yen 277.21 billion ($2.3 billion) in fiscal 2014-15 -- its first annual loss since its formation in April 2010 following the merger between Nippon Oil and Nippon Mining Holdings.
It posted a Yen 107.04 billion net profit in fiscal 2013-14. The company suffered inventory losses due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices in the second half of the fiscal year.
Idemitsu also posted a net loss of Yen 137.96 billion in the fiscal year ended March 31, its first annual net loss since going public in fiscal 2006-07.
Idemitsu last reported an annual net loss (Yen 5.9 billion) in fiscal 2004-05. The sharp drop in crude prices led to inventory losses as Japanese refiners are obliged to hold the equivalent of around 70 days' worth of domestic crude and oil product imports as part of Japan's privately held strategic petroleum reserves.
Orçun Tezel
· 1
Orcun Tezel
By Jessica Jaganathan SINGAPORE, June 5 (Reuters) - Asia's gasoline refining profits have outperformed all other oil products this year as a combination of lower crude prices and both seasonally and structurally strong demand pushed margins to a record high.
Margins for the motor fuel have gone up 222 percent since the start of the year, according to Reuters data. The surge in Asian gasoline margins is partly due to increased shipments ahead of the summer and partly due to high fuel consumption in the economies of Asia's biggest users. Car sales continue to soar in China, while India is pushing ahead with an urbanisation drive.
In contrast, Asian refining margins for gasoil have been among the worst this year, falling nearly 14 percent since January. Gasoil is traditionally the main fuel consumed in Asia's industrial, transport and agriculture sectors.
Gasoil's problem isn't a lack of demand but instead one of oversupply, analysts say, with the Middle East planning to turn itself into the world's biggest refining region within the next three years. "Gasoil demand is relatively healthy but clearly the weaker margins are reflecting an oversupply of product (especially gasoil) which has been exasperated by the start-up of the big refineries in the Middle East," said Richard Gorry, director at JBC Energy Asia.
Margins for naphtha, used in the making of petrochemicals, rose 177 percent this year, but profits are coming from a low base. In fact, the margins are at their worst since 2013 as the feedstock is being replaced by cheaper and plentiful liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S., which is in the middle of a shale boom. Refining margins for fuel oil used in the marine and power generation sectors rose 27 percent this year on the back of summer demand. Jet fuel fell the most, down 16 percent since January, likely due to softer air travel demand as trade in Asia slows and economies take a pause.
Gasoline
Orçun Tezel
Margins for the motor fuel have gone up 222 percent since the start of the year, according to Reuters data. The surge in Asian gasoline margins is partly due to increased shipments ahead of the summer and partly due to high fuel consumption in the economies of Asia's biggest users. Car sales continue to soar in China, while India is pushing ahead with an urbanisation drive.
In contrast, Asian refining margins for gasoil have been among the worst this year, falling nearly 14 percent since January. Gasoil is traditionally the main fuel consumed in Asia's industrial, transport and agriculture sectors.
Gasoil's problem isn't a lack of demand but instead one of oversupply, analysts say, with the Middle East planning to turn itself into the world's biggest refining region within the next three years. "Gasoil demand is relatively healthy but clearly the weaker margins are reflecting an oversupply of product (especially gasoil) which has been exasperated by the start-up of the big refineries in the Middle East," said Richard Gorry, director at JBC Energy Asia.
Margins for naphtha, used in the making of petrochemicals, rose 177 percent this year, but profits are coming from a low base. In fact, the margins are at their worst since 2013 as the feedstock is being replaced by cheaper and plentiful liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S., which is in the middle of a shale boom. Refining margins for fuel oil used in the marine and power generation sectors rose 27 percent this year on the back of summer demand. Jet fuel fell the most, down 16 percent since January, likely due to softer air travel demand as trade in Asia slows and economies take a pause.
Gasoline
Orçun Tezel
· 1
Orcun Tezel
The country’s crude oil storage levels dropped for the fifth consecutive week as refineries continued to gear up for the summer driving season and as domestic oil production continued to slow.
Nationwide, commercial oil storage declined by 1.9 million barrels last week, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Storage at Cushing, the country’s largest commercial storage facility, dropped by about 1 million barrels in the most recent week.
Earlier this year, storage levels were growing so quickly some industry observers feared the country’s tanks could soon reach capacity. Storage levels have since peaked, but they are still unusually high.
“At 477.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years,” the EIA report stated.
While running out of storage is no longer seen as a concern, some industry observers say the large volumes could hold down oil prices if too much oil is released from storage quickly as prices recover.
“The real implication is that it’s going to keep a lid on prices,” Robert Dauffenbach, director of the Center for Economic and Management Research at the University of Oklahoma, said last month.
Gasoline
Orçun Tezel
Nationwide, commercial oil storage declined by 1.9 million barrels last week, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Storage at Cushing, the country’s largest commercial storage facility, dropped by about 1 million barrels in the most recent week.
Earlier this year, storage levels were growing so quickly some industry observers feared the country’s tanks could soon reach capacity. Storage levels have since peaked, but they are still unusually high.
“At 477.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years,” the EIA report stated.
While running out of storage is no longer seen as a concern, some industry observers say the large volumes could hold down oil prices if too much oil is released from storage quickly as prices recover.
“The real implication is that it’s going to keep a lid on prices,” Robert Dauffenbach, director of the Center for Economic and Management Research at the University of Oklahoma, said last month.
Gasoline
Orçun Tezel
· 1