Piyush Lalsingh Ratnu / Profilo

US30: A name for the Dow Jones index.

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UK JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: Measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits over the previous month.

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I will start trading from 01 February, 2022.

In the last four days we saw the repetition of January trend, after a new high, Gold crashed in same pattern: 1850-1830-1818-1808-1796.

Last year too Gold crashed in first week and then from third week till mid March Gold failed to recover the price levels.

FOMC, interest rate related Policy formats, higher yields and dollar strength are together driving the Gold prices for now.

The numbers remain the same:

2020
1966
1947
1926
1907
1888
1866
1830 (newly formed level)
1818
1808
1796
1777
1745
1717
1666
1636
1616
1596
1555
1515
1496
1444
1414

The crash and rise will be observed at these levels just like last two years.

Interest rate decision related statements and asset purchase related policies might result in a price movement of upto $100, stay alert and keep price gaps, target net average and observe SR zone strictly before taking a decision.

I thank you all for your prayers and wishes, and am glad I am recovering well by the grace of God.

Have a great weekend!

- PR

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VIX OR VOLATILITY INDEX: Shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge."

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WEDGE CHART PATTERN: Chart formation that shows a narrowing price range over time, where price highs in an ascending wedge decrease incrementally, or in a descending wedge, price declines are incrementally smaller. Ascending wedges typically conclude with a downside breakout and descending wedges typically terminate with upside breakouts.

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XAU/USD: Symbol for Gold Index | Important Forex Terms | Piyush Ratnu Trading Tutorial | Spot Gold | Forex Glossary

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YIELD: The percentage return from an investment.

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19.01.2022 Co-relations | PR Spot Gold | XAUUSD Analysis

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19.01.2022 Trading Direction | Co-relations | PR Spot Gold | XAUUSD Analysis

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18.01.2022 | Co-relations | PR Spot GOLD | XAUUSD Analysis

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18.01.2022 | Gold Support and Resistance Zone | PR Gold Analysis

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Duration: Last 365 days: GRT Pattern SR Zones and FIB with IB zones.

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Gold and silver futures prices are sharply lower and near daily lows in midday U.S. dealings on this first trading day of 2022. Bearish daily elements that include a solidly higher U.S. dollar index sharply rising U.S. Treasury yields today are negatives for the precious metals. Also, mostly higher stock indexes Monday suggest still-scant trader and investor risk aversion in the marketplace at present—and that's bearish for the safe-haven metals. February gold futures were last down $29.60 at $1,799.00 and March Comex silver was last down $0.487 at $22.87 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. Markets in China, Japan and Australia were closed. U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher at midday but nearer their daily lows. The S&P 500 stock index gained 27% in 2021, while notching 70 record highs on the year.

While there is little risk aversion in the marketplace at present, some market analysts believe 2022 will be a rockier year for the stock markets, what with rising inflation, central banks reining in their heretofore easy money policies, and the globe still doing battle with the pandemic. There are also lingering geopolitical issues that could quickly move to the front burner of the marketplace, such as Russia's troop build-up on its Ukrainian border, and China's property market bubble that may be bursting. These potentials, if realized, could work in favor of the safe-haven metals market bulls this year.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be key in guiding gold's price action in 2022, especially after the hawkish shift at the end of the year. This leads to a key question — can gold handle a more aggressive central bank after an already lackluster year?

At the December meeting, the Fed announced that it would be doubling its tapering pace to $30 billion a month, which would conclude the Fed's asset-purchasing program in early 2022. The central bank cited problematic inflation and a strong economic recovery as the main reasons for the shift in policy.

When the Fed announced its accelerated schedule, gold ended up making unexpected gains as most of the information was already largely priced in.

It is "really appropriate" to make this monetary policy shift due to the current state of the U.S. economy, inflation, and wages, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in December. "Price increases have now spread to a broader range of goods and services," he said.

The updated dot-plot also revealed that Fed officials are now projecting three quarter-point rate hikes in 2022.

Another point that stood out was the Fed noting that it won't raise rates until the taper is complete. "Buying assets is adding accommodation, raising rates is removing accommodation. Since we're two meetings away from completing the taper, assuming things go as expected, if we want it to lift off before then, we would stop the taper potentially sooner. But it's not something I expect to happen," Powell said.

According to the updated projections, the Fed is looking at the real GDP to grow 5.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. The central bank's PCE inflation forecast was upgraded to 2.6% from 2.2% in 2022.

Other central banks are also taking on a more hawkish stance, including the Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

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Target 1 and 2: M30 H1 and H4 successfully achieved as per the trading alerts generated on 16.12.2021 after FOMC at 1777 zone. In my analysis too, I had mentioned a reversal might trigger 1777, 1796 and 1808, today GOLD is at 1803/4. Accuracy proved once again. Those who followed analysis, am sure made handsome profits.

All the traders who are holding BUY positions in GOLD from 1752/1777/1796 price range are suggested to close the trades in net profit right now. CMP 1803.33

I expect a down rally ahead. WHY?

Gold is in R zone now.

Fundamentals will now drive it to new range, subject to announcements and new statements, will be better to observe the momentum and ranges first.

Gold is near pivot too, I prefer to enter in trades at levels, rather than near mid ranges/pivot ranges.

Since today is Friday, it is wise to close all trades in current profits to avoid weekend swap charges and stress during weekend.

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In my analysis dated 02.12.2021 and 03.12.2021 on the day of NFP, I had mentioned the reversal patterns, retracement and target price with the date of 18.12.2021 | Major reversal zone as highlighted by me was 1777. Gold couldnt cross 1749, and reversed from 1752 zone, after crossing 1777: 1796 and 1808 were clear targets as shown in the figure 5 above. Today GOLD has reached 1804. Date, reversal point, price zone, pattern: all three formats proved correct.
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Gold struck by the strong dollar

nvestors seem unsure about what to do with gold amid high levels of uncertainty in the market. The Federal Reserve has finally admitted that the high-level inflation we've been seeing is not transitory, but investors are left to try to guess what the central bank will do next.

Meanwhile, signals from within the gold market are mixed, as exchange-traded funds recorded inflows for the first month since July, despite the roughly flat gold price in November. The yellow metal has been unable to pick up momentum this month, staggering around amid weak economic data, a fluctuating dollar, and the type of uncertainty that usually drives its price higher.

The problem for gold right now is that it can't seem to find the momentum to keep rising with all that's going on. The yellow metal appears range-bound between $1,775 and $1,790. Breakeven inflation climbed 2.7% intra-month in November, the highest level since 2005. The World Gold council added that investors remain focused on inflation and central banks' possible reactions to it, which remain a strong influence on the price of gold.

The organization expects investors to remain preoccupied with inflation and regulators' potential responses to it for the rest of the year. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the word "transitory" is no longer applicable to the current inflation rate and suggested that the central bank could start tapering its asset-buying program sooner than previously expected. As a result, investors will also be watching the pace of expected interest rate hikes.

The focus is now on tomorrow's inflation reading, although the gold market has been struggling to respond to rising inflation. The big problem for gold right now is the strong dollar, which is holding the yellow metal back toward the lower boundaries of this week's trading range. Now some market watchers are expecting a recession in 2023 due to accelerated tightening by the Fed.


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Gold pared all the daily losses and rose to new daily highs as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference was deemed not as hawkish by the markets following the central banks' decision to double its tapering pace.

Powell told reporters on Wednesday that data developments, including the latest inflation and employment numbers out of the U.S., warranted this evolution in monetary policy.

"The unemployment rate [is projected] to fall to 3.5% by the end of the year … while inflation will run above our 2% goal well into next year," he said. "Price increases are spreading to broader goods and services. We are attentive to risks that persist in real wage growth."

Powell clarified that the risk of persistently higher inflation is now greater, which justifies the accelerating tapering pace.

Prior to the press conference, the Fed announced that it would be doubling its tapering pace to $30 billion a month. This change will conclude the Fed's asset-purchasing program in early 2022.

The updated dot-plot also revealed that officials project three quarter-point increases in the benchmark federal funds rate in 2022.

GOLD: crash: $1782-$1752, reversal: $1752-1782:

$60 movement completed in last 12 hours.

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As alerted on Monday, 13.12.2021:

GOLD crashed from 1791 till 1777 and 1767 (today's S1: 1766) and yesterday's low was 1766 too.

Am sure those who took trades at 1790 zone, made decent profits.

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As indicated on 13.12.2021: a SELL signal was generated by a set of indicators including our algorithm, and GOLD crashed from 1790 zone till 1777/1769 | TP1 and 2 achieved on H1 chart based alert too.

Gold held onto its worst daily loss since the end of November as investors weighed the latest U.S. inflation data and counted down to the conclusion of the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year later Wednesday.
Prices paid to U.S. producers posted a record annual increase of almost 10% in November, a surge that will sustain a pipeline of inflationary pressures well into 2022. This is boosting the case for the Fed to tighten monetary policy, which is weighing on non-interest bearing assets such as precious metals.

Fed policy makers could announce a doubling of the pace of its bond-buying taper and lay out a steeper path of expected interest rate hikes, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Bullion is heading for its first annual loss in three years amid diminishing monetary support from central banks, although uncertainties surrounding the impact of the new virus variant could stoke demand for haven assets. The World Health Organization is concerned that omicron is being dismissed as mild, even as it spreads at a faster rate than any previous strain of Covid-19.

As alerted on Monday, 13.12.2021:

GOLD crashed from 1791 till 1777 and 1767 (today's S1: 1766) and yesterday's low was 1766 too. Am sure those who took trades at 1790 zone, made decent profits.

It's a late night event today, quite close to market closing timing, a sudden rise and dip in volumes might trigger repetition of volatility in Asian session too.

There is less space to exit in RT based trades, as per the past track record, the momentum and volatility is experienced for 30 minutes after Interest Rate Decision, the impact of FOMC is faced during the speech, Q&A session and for another 45-90 minutes after the Q&A session. However since the market closing timing will be closer, I don't think traders will get enough space or time duration to hedge or exit in Net average, specially traders like me who trade more on retracement based price zone/FIB zones.

It will be worth observing, where and where to get in the trading positions inorder to exit in NET positions.

Though, I won't hesitate to avoid trading today completely, in case I feel a extension of crash or price rise pattern might happen in Asian and London session next day, further getting extended to NYSE opening tomorrow.

So, summarising the same: fundamentals make technicals, so I will not rely merely on technical analysis and patterns to predict the market movement today, it is always wise to observe, analyse and then trade rather than predicting the movement on the basis of various facts. Because sometimes it doesn't matter how many facts you consider, one small fact can change the complete trading scenario and can result in huge losses.

As per my analysis,

Scenario A: The crash zone stops are:

1745
1717
1685
1666
Further extension might trigger price to 1590 zone

Scenario B: The rise stops are:

1796 (1803 R3)
1818 (1812 R4)
1832 (1826 R5)
Further extension might trigger price to 1866/1888 zones

Year end, US China tensions, Inflation, YCC, Dollar strength, Festival - Holiday season ahead, New Year Exchange opening session, DOT plot, Rate projection and many other factors will be impacting Dollar and Gold both together in parallel/opposite and sometimes in a proportionate way.

Hence trading carefully during this session, is very important.

Aggressive trades, wrong decisions can put the complete account in big difficulty.

NAP should be the main focus, money should not be.

Saving the principle amount is the main motto.
Making higher profits is not my motive today.

Because I want to start my New Year with a clean slate, not with a floating loss.

Not to forget, last year, In January, first 20 days, Gold crashed till 1777 from price range of 1966. In such one direction based market movements, there are high chances that traders can lose their entire principle.

Wishing us ALL THE BEST!

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Repetition of November 2020 patterns, likely?

From the technical point of view if we analyse and check the price movement last year during November, 2020 as compared to November 2021, there is quite a similarity between both till now with a gap of 4 days to be precise. In my earlier analysis I had mentioned the high possibilities of crash in first and second week of November 2021, followed by reversal/rise in first-second week of December 2021 as per the past data mapping of last 6 years. Last year I had published in my analysis 16 December, 2020 as a date from which Gold might start rising and Gold did rise till the price above $1955 till 06 January, 2021 before crashing further from this price point.

Before we all get overconfident, let us not forget as unexpected as it sounds, but Gold had dropped to earth-shattering levels after the US NFP data published on 06 August & 09 August 2021 which proved to be a lot stronger than expected. The price crash was observed from $1832 (ADP) to $1684 (09 August, 2021). As a result, the precious metal again repeated its history by crashing on 9th August 2021, repeating a similar pattern acknowledging its 2020's $150+ fall on 8th August well announced in advance by me.

In the same pattern, I won’t be surprised if a repetition is formed this December, 2021 – January, 2022 too. As I had mentioned earlier price patterns on specific dates remained same multiple times unless triggered by fundamentals or geo-political tensions. It will be worth observing the price movement and SR zones based price action this NFP.

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