Muhammad Ifung Hendy C / Profil

Market Roundup

EUR/USD: Euro awalnya naik terhadap dolar pada hari Rabu tetapi menyerah setelah risalah yang dirilis dari pertemuan Federal Reserve Desember menunjukkan bank sentral AS mungkin perlu bertindak lebih cepat dalam menaikkan suku bunga untuk memerangi inflasi. .menurut risalah dari pertemuan kebijakan Fed 14-15 Desember, pejabat Fed mengatakan bulan lalu bahwa pasar tenaga kerja AS "sangat ketat" dan mungkin tidak hanya perlu menaikkan suku bunga lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan, tetapi juga mengurangi kepemilikan aset dengan cepat. .Fed Fund Futures telah memperkirakan peluang 80% kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Maret setelah rilis risalah Fed..
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https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=628431&l=id&p=0

Bank of England akan mengumumkan kebijakan moneter dan pernyataan suku bunga pada 6 Agustus, pukul 14:00 waktu MT.

Itulah acara yang harus Anda perhatikan. Ketika suatu negara perlu meningkatkan ekonominya, itu memudahkan kebijakan, yang berarti menurunkan suku bunga. sebagai hasilnya, mata uang menjadi tidak menarik bagi investor dalam, tetapi bisnis lokal menerima lebih banyak kesempatan untuk meminjam uang dari bank, dan belanja konsumen naik. begitu pula sebaliknya, jika kebijakan moneter diperketat, suku bunga naik, dan mata uang nasional semakin «kuat» dan menarik bagi investor internasional.

Pertimbangkan memperdagangkan instrumen ini: EUR / GBP, GBP / USD, GBP / JPY, dan GBP / CHF. jika BOE positif tentang ekonomi Inggris, GBP akan naik. Kalau tidak, pound Inggris akan jatuh.

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Dolar berada di bawah tekanan
Selama seminggu terakhir, Dolar AS telah jatuh ke posisi terendah dalam sejarah. Penurunan dolar yang dramatis ini merupakan ketidakpastian politik, rekor pertumbuhan PDB AS yang rendah, dan meningkatnya kecemasan terhadap gelombang kedua virus corona. Partai Demokrat di Kongres tidak akan menyetujui kesepakatan dengan Gedung Putih untuk memompa lebih banyak uang ke dalam sistem keuangan AS, yang akan membantu meringankan tekanan perekonomian.
Di sisi lain, ekonomi Eropa tampak lebih menarik, terutama setelah persetujuan paket stimulus 750 miliar euro untuk negara-negara anggota.

Minggu ini, PMI AS, Eropa, dan Tiongkok akan dirilis. Selain itu, kami akan melihat rilis Upah Nonpertanian AS minggu ini, yang merupakan indikator penting bagi investor.

Berita yang akan datang

5 AGUSTUS
Rabu
GBP: PMI Komposit dan PMI Jasa
USD: ADP Lapangan Pekerjaan Nonpertanian dan PMI Nonmanufaktur ISM

6 AGUSTUS
Kamis
GBP: Keputusan Suku Bunga BoE dan PMI Konstruksi
USD: Klaim Pengangguran Awal
7 AGUSTUS
Jumat
USD: Upah Nonpertanian dan Tingkat Pengangguran
CAD: PMI Ivey

AMERICA’S ROUNDUP: DOLLAR HEADS FOR STEEPEST MONTHLY DROP IN DECADE, WALL STREET GAINS, GOLD RISES, OIL POSTS MONTHLY GAINS AS U.S. REPORTS RECORD OUTPUT CUTS IN MAY-AUGUST 1ST,2020

Market Roundup

• Canada June IPPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast,1.2% previous

• Canada June RMPI (YoY) -13.5%, -24.3% previous

• Canada June IPPI (YoY) -3.1% ,-4.9% previous

• Canada June RMPI (MoM) 7.5%, 6.9% forecast, 16.4% previous

• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% ,0.6%,0.8% previous

• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2) 0.40% ,0.90% previous

• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2) 0.80% ,0.40% previous

• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 5.2%, 8.1% previous

• US June Personal Income (MoM) -1.1%, -0.5%,-4.2% previous

• US June Personal Spending (MoM) 5.6%, 5.5% forecast, 8.2% previous

• US June PCE price index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% previous

• US June PCE Price index (YoY) 0.8 ,0.5 previous

• US June Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 0.9% ,1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous

• US June Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2%,0.1% previous

• Canada May GDP (MoM) 4.5% ,3.5% forecast , -11.6% previous

•Canada June Building Permits (MoM) 6.2%, 20.2% previous

• Brazil June Budget Balance -210.161B,-164.079B forecast, -140.400B previous

• Brazil June Debt-to-GDP ratio 58.1%, 57.0% forecast, 55.0% previous

• US Chicago Jul PMI 51.9, 43.9 forecast, 36.6 previous

• US Michigan Jul Consumer Sentiment 72.5, 73.0 forecast, 73.2 previous

• US Michigan Jul Michigan Current Conditions 82.8, 84.2 forecast, 87.1 previous

• US Michigan Jul Consumer Expectations 65.9,66.2, 72.3 previous

• US Michigan Jul Inflation Expectations 3.0%, 3.1%,3.0% previous

• Canada May Budget Balance -43.93B, -14.79B previous

• Canada May Budget Balance (YoY) -86.77B, -21.77B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• No data ahead

Looking Ahead -Events and Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as growing doubts over Eurozone economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis overshadowed weaker dollar. The euro zone’s economy recorded its deepest contraction on record in the second quarter, preliminary estimates showed on Friday. In the months from April to June, gross domestic product in the 19-country currency bloc shrank by 12.1% from the previous quarter.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1922 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1653 (11 DMA).

GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against dollar on Friday as a broad-based dollar decline fuelled demand for the British currency. But concerns of a second wave of infections, a weak economy and growing pressure to strike a Brexit trade deal before a transition period ends in December are prompting investors to become wary of the currency’s prospects in coming months. The pound rose hit high at $1.3159, its highest level since early March. It was last trading at 1.3083. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3185 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3249 (31st Dec 2019 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3068 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2968 (38.2%fib).

USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to notch its fourth straight monthly gain, its longest winning run in six years, as domestic data showed the economy expanded more than expected in May.The gain for the loonie on Friday follows a decline in recent days. As the end of the month approaches, some market players tend to rebalance their currency hedges. The loonie has benefited in July from a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as coronavirus cases climbed in the United States, and from higher prices for oil, one of Canadas major exports. On Friday, the loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3377 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3424 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3493 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3274 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors covered shorts and took profits after sharp decline in the currency pair. The dollar mostly held gains against Japanese yen after data showed U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending has pulled out of April’s deep hole but remains below its pre-pandemic level, and the currency strengthened as the session wore on. At (GMT 22:15), greenback was up 0.41% versus the Japanese yen to 105.85. Strong resistance can be seen at 106.31 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.40 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.16 (23.6% fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks posted their first monthly decline since a market selloff in March on Friday as growing doubts over a global recovery from the coronavirus crisis overshadowed a batch of strong earnings from technology firms.

UKs benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.54 percent, Germanys Dax ended down by 0.54 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.43 percent.

The Nasdaq jumped more than 1% on Friday, powered by strong earnings from some of the largest U.S. companies, but the Dow and S&P finished with smaller gains as uncertainty about the government’s next round of coronavirus aid kept economic worries on the radar.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.45% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.77% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.49% percent.

Treasuries Recap

Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose off near-record lows on Friday, but caution held back shorter-term rates and steepened the yield curve as talks in Washington on a new coronavirus aid bill continued.

The benchmark 10-year yield was up 1.3 basis points at 0.5543% in afternoon trading after reaching as low as 52 basis points, the least since March.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Friday, hovering near its all time peak, as a sliding dollar and dire economic numbers from far and wide sparked a rush to safety in bullion, which is on course for its biggest monthly gain since February 2016.

Spot gold gained 0.6% to $1,971.83 per ounce by 2:17 p.m. EDT (1817 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher at $1,985.9.

Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for monthly gains, benefiting from news that U.S. oil output cuts in May were the largest on record.

Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.9%, at $43.31 a barrel.U.S. crude was up 35 cents, or 0.9%, at $40.27 after dropping 3.3% in the previous session, also off lows not seen since July 10.

Inflasi Australia berpotensi besar mencatat penurunan tajam selama kuartal kedua, dipicu oleh merebaknya pandemi COVID-19 yang memaksa pemerintah membebaskan biaya penitipan anak. Kebijakan ini diambil untuk membantu masyarakat yang mengalami kesulitan finansial saat menghadapi lockdown pada bulan April lalu. Ekonom memperkirakan jika inflasi akan merosot tajam pada, mengacu pada forecast data CPI Austaralia Q2 yang dijadwalkan rilis pada hari Rabu (29/Juli) besok. Penurunan diestimasikan mencapai -2.0 persen secara kuartalan, dan menjadi -0.4 persen dalam basis tahunan. Sebagai informasi, inflasi tahunan -0.4 persen merupakan angka negatif untuk pertama kalinya sejak 1998. iklan "Inflasi kemungkinan akan tetap sangat lemah mengingat tingginya pengangguran, sewa perumahan yang lemah, dan biaya tempat tinggal baru yang membentuk sekitar 15% dari data CPI kuartal kedua. Secara keseluruhan, kemerosotan inflasi Australia juga disebabkan oleh dorongan disinflasi dari pabrik-pabrik China," kata Tapas Strickland, ekonom di NAB. Pandangan hawkish RBA dapat bergeser menjadi dovish apabila data inflasi kuartal kedua lebih buruk dari forecast ekonom. Kondisi ini akan menjadi kemunduran besar bagi RBA yang selama bertahun-tahun telah berjuang menggenjot inflasi ke target 2-3 persen. Namun, ekonom berpendapat bahwa hasil negatif data inflasi bukan berarti Australia akan benar-benar terjun ke zona deflasi. Hal ini karena pemicu penurunan tajam inflasi selama kuartal kedua lebih disebabkan oleh faktor yang bersifat sementara, yakni pembebasan biaya penitipan anak yang telah menghapus 1.1 persen dari data inflasi secara keseluruhan. AUD/USD Terancam Aksi Profit Taking Pada saat berita ini ditulis, pergerakan Dolar Australia terpantau menguat terhadap Dolar AS. Pair AUD/USD kini berada di kisaran 0.7165, atau menguat 0.21 persen dari level pembukaan harian. Secara garis besar, Dolar Australia berada dekat level tertinggi 15 bulan karena ditopang oleh risk appetite pelaku pasar dalam merespon rencana stimulus berbagai negara. Walaupun demikian, pergerakan AUD/USD di jalur bullish rawan diterpa aksi profit taking investor dari posisi Long, terutama menjelang rilis data inflasi kuartal kedua yang diekspektasikan merosot.

Amerika Serikat akan merilis pembaruan mingguan tentang klaim pengangguran pada 9 Juli.

Sekali seminggu, Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS merilis pembaruan tentang berapa banyak orang yang mengajukan asuransi pengangguran. meskipun NFP cukup optimis minggu lalu ketika indikator meningkat sebesar 4 800 ribu (vs perkiraan 3 037 ribu), klaim pengangguran mingguan untuk 2 Juli mencapai tingkat yang lebih tinggi dari yang diharapkan. Angka aktual menunjukkan kenaikan 1 427K bukannya 1 350K yang diantisipasi.

ini adalah momen yang tepat untuk memanfaatkan EUR / USD, USD / JPY dan GBP / USD. Jika tingkat aktual klaim pengangguran lebih rendah, USD akan naik. Kalau tidak, USD akan turun.

ASIA ROUNDUP: AUSSIE EASES AS VIRUS CASES MOUNT, GOLD STEADIES NEAR MORE THAN 8-YEAR HIGH, ASIAN SHARES NUDGE LOWER - WEDNESDAY, JULY 8TH, 2020

Market Roundup

Oil dips on U.S. inventory build

Gold steadies near highest since November 2011

Economic Data Ahead

No major economic data releases
Key Events Ahead

(0445 ET/0845 GMT) ECBs De Guindos speech
FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index eased as Federal Reserve officials expressed concern that rising coronavirus cases could harm economic growth just as stimulus measures start to expire. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent lower at 96.90, having touched a low of 96.57 on Monday, its lowest since June 24.

EUR/USD: The euro steadied after tumbling from a near 2-week peak in the prior session on the European Commission forecast that the eurozone economy will drop deeper into recession this year and rebound less steeply in 2021 than previously expected, with France, Italy and Spain struggling the most due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1268, having touched a high of 1.1345 on Monday, its highest since June 23. Investors’ attention will remain on a series of data from Eurozone economies and ECB De Guindos speech, ahead of the U.S. consumer credit change. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1325, a break above targets 1.1372. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1247 (10-DMA), a break below could drag it below 1.1215.

USD/JPY: The dollar nudged higher, extending previous session gains after data showed U.S. hiring surged to a record high in May and layoffs fell as businesses reopened. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed hiring accelerated by 2.4 million jobs to 6.5 million, the highest since the government started tracking the series in 2000, while the hiring rate jumped to an all-time high of 4.9 percent from 3.1 percent in April. The major was trading 0.05 percent up at 107.55, having hit a low of 107.24 on Tuesday, its lowest since June 29. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. consumer credit change. Immediate resistance is located at 107.90, a break above targets 108.20. On the downside, support is seen at 107.10, a break below could take it near at 106.73.

GBP/USD: Sterling surged, extending gains for the fourth straight session, as traders awaited British finance minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement later in the day of his next moves to prevent a wave of job cuts from damaging an already weakened economy. The major traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2553, having hit a high of 1.2593 on Tuesday, it’s highest since June 16. Investors’ attention will remain on the geopolitical developments ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2634, a break above could take it near 1.2687. On the downside, support is seen at 1.2507, a break below targets 1.2463. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent up at 89.80 pence, having hit a high of 89.67 on Tuesday, it’s highest since June 18.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined, extending previous session losses, as a resurgence of the coronavirus in the United States and the return of lockdowns in some countries weakened risk sentiment. The major trades 0.1 percent down at 0.6934, having hit a high of 0.6997 on Tuesday, it’s highest since June 11. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6974, a break above could take it near 0.6997. On the downside, support is seen at 0.6908 (10-DMA) a break below targets 0.6877.

Equities Recap

Asian shares eased as an increase in new coronavirus cases in some parts of the world cast doubts over the economic recovery.

MSCIs broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded edged 0.1 percent lower.

Tokyos Nikkei fell 0.7 percent to 22,438.65 points, Australias S&P/ASX 200 index eased 1.5 percent to 5,920.30 points. South Koreas KOSPI declined 0.2 percent to 2,158.88 points.

Shanghai composite index rose 1.7 percent to 3,403.32 points, while CSI 300 index traded 1.6 percent up at 4,773.03 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.4 percent higher at 26,069.32 points. Taiwan shares added 0.6 percent to 12,170.19 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices declined as industry data showing a build in U.S. crude stockpiles and a forecast for U.S. crude output to fall less than anticipated in 2020 added to worries about oversupply. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.05 percent down at $42.94 per barrel by 0542 GMT, having hit a high of $43.68 on Monday, its highest since June 23. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.05 percent lower at $40.40 a barrel, after rising as high as $41.06 on Monday, its highest since June 23.

Gold prices steadied near a more than 8-year high, as worries over surging COVID-19 cases and hopes of more stimulus measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted the safe-haven metals demand. Spot gold was trading flat at $1,794.46 per ounce by 0548 GMT, hovering towards a high of $1,797.41 on Tuesday, its highest since November 2011. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2 percent to $1,805.70.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year note yield trading at 0.648 percent.

DIGITAL CURRENCY REVOLUTION SERIES: TRAVALA.COM PARTNERS WITH EXPEDIA GROUP FOR CRYPTOCURRENCY-BASED TRAVEL BOOKING

Expedia (Expedia Partner Solutions (EPS), one of the global B2B partnership brands of Expedia Group) and Travala.com, the crypto travel platform have joined their hands together to allow over 700,000 accommodations to be booked via cryptocurrency payment method.

In light of the outbreak of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), companies are monitoring the situation closely and will continue to provide information and assistance to you.

Travala.com which is the leading cryptocurrency-friendly accommodation booking platform with over 2 million hotels in 230 countries, has announced their partnership with Expedia Solutions.

EPS has the business of leading airlines, travel agencies, top consumer brands, and many other partners through its versatile API, online template solutions and powerful agent tools.

“At EPS we are passionate about innovation and recognize that booking and payment choice continues to evolve in a fast-changing world.

Our aim is to support Travala.com to scale their business faster than ever before. Through our expansive travel supply, partner support and cutting-edge technology, we specialize in helping partners like Travala.com build fantastic experiences for their travelers,” says Alfonso Paredes, the senior vice president at Expedia Group.

Juan Otero, CEO and Co-founder, Travala.com, says: “With cryptocurrency adoption on the rise, we want to ensure our users have payment choice and transparent pricing for every trip booked. EPS Rapid is the best API product in the travel industry and this partnership unlocks greater accommodation choice and availability for our users, including 4- and 5-star hotels in top destinations.

Our latest month-on-month data shows consumer confidence and the desire for travel is returning, with an 81% increase in room nights booked and website traffic up 50% week-on-week. Working with Expedia means we can drive traveler loyalty throughout the recovery period, offering unparalleled last-minute availability and fantastic rates and offers.”

Powered by EPS’s versatile API, Rapid, more than 700,000 Expedia Group hotels and accommodations are now available via Travala.com. On the site, travelers can book trips using more than 30 forms of cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB) and AVA, Travala.com’s native cryptocurrency.

AMERICA’S ROUNDUP: DOLLAR TURNS HIGHER AS FOCUS TURNS TO SURGING CORONAVIRUS CASES, WALL STREET JUMPS, GOLD GAINS, OIL UP MORE THAN 2% ON U.S. JOBS DATA BUT VIRUS FEARS CAP GAINS-JULY 3RD 2020

• U.S. economy created a record 4.8 million jobs in June

• US June Participation Rate 61.5%, 60.8% previous

• US June U6 Unemployment Rate18.0%, 21.2% previous

• US June Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) -1.2%, -0.7% forecast, -1.0% previous

• US Initial Jobless Claims 1,427K, 1,355K forecast, 1,480K previous

• US Continuing Jobless Claims 19,290K, 19,000K forecast, 19,522K previous

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 1,503.75K, 1,620.75K previous

• US Exports 144.51B, 151.28B previous

• US Imports 199.12B, 200.69B previous

• US June Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.0%, 5.3% forecast, 6.7% previous

• US May Trade -54.60B, -53.00B forecast, -49.40B previous

• US June Unemployment Rate 11.1%, 12.3% forecast,13.3% previous

• US June Manufacturing Payrolls 356K, 311K forecast, 225K previous

• Canada May Exports 34.61B, 33.60B forecast, 32.66B previous

• US June Private Nonfarm Payrolls 4,767K, 2,900K forecast, 3,094K previous

• US June Government Payrolls 33.0K, -585.0K previous

• US June Nonfarm Payrolls 4,800K, 3,000K forecast, 2,509K previous

• Canada May Imports 35.29B, 38.10B forecast, 35.91B previous

• US June Average Weekly Hours 34.5, 34.5 forecast, 34.7 previous

• Canada May Trade Balance -0.68B,-3.00B forecast, -3.25B previous

• Canada June RBC Manufacturing PMI 47.8, 40.6 previous

• 13:45 US June ISM NY Business Conditions 39.5%, 19.5% previous

• 13:45 US June ISM-New York Index 806.0, 811.3 previous

• 14:00 US Factory May Orders (MoM) 8.9% forecast, -13.0% previous

• 14:00 US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 15.3%, 15.5% previous

• 14:00 US May Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 2.6%,-8.5% previous

• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 65B, 78B forecast, 120B previous

Looking ahead economic data (GMT)

• 22:30 Australia June AIG Construction Index 24.9 previous

•23:00 Australia Services PMI 53.2 forecast, 26.9 previous

• 0 0:30 Japan June Services PMI 42.3 forecast, 26.5 previous

• 01:30 Australia May 16.3% forecast, -17.7% previous

• 01:30 Australia May Imports (MoM) -10% previous

• 01:30 Australia May Trade Balance 9.000B forecast, 8.800B previous

• 01:30 Australia May Exports (MoM) -11% previous

• 01:45 China June Caixin Services PMI 55.0 previous

• 01:45 China June Chinese Composite PMI 53.4 previous

Looking ahead events and other releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currencies summaries

EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday as U.S. dollar rose , regaining its safe-haven appeal, as investors focused on the resurgence of U.S. coronavirus cases and raised concerns the economy would give back the summers employment gains. Earlier in the session, the dollar fell as risk appetite increased after data showing the worlds largest economy defied expectations for a second month in a row, creating jobs in June at a far faster pace than market forecasts. Despite Thursdays rise, the greenback was on track to post losses for a second straight week against a basket of major currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1300 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1354 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1213 (30 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1162 (38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the dollar gained after prospects for economic recovery improved after data showed the U.S. economy created record jobs in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million jobs in June, the Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment data showed, the most since the government began keeping records in 1939.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2528 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2600 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2414(11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2315 (50% fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showing a narrower-than-expected trade deficit supported hopes of economic recovery, with the loonie adding to this weeks rally. Canada posted a trade deficit of C$677 million in May as exports jumped 6.7%, data from Statistics Canada showed. Analysts had forecast a deficit of C$3 billion. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3571 to the greenback, having traded in a range of 1.3560 to 1.3623. Since the start of the week it was up 0.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3625 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3726 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3471 (23.% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3401 (lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Thursday after data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, the most since the government started keeping records in 1939. Payrolls rebounded 2.699 million in May. Economists polled had forecast payrolls increasing by 3 million jobs in June. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 11.1% last month from 13.3% in May. The U.S. currency had also been buffeted earlier in the global session by news a COVID-19 vaccine developed by German biotech firm BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer had shown potential in early-stage human trials. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.53 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.85 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.30 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European shares closed at a one-week high on Thursday as hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and a better-than-expected rebound in U.S. hiring overshadowed concerns about surging coronavirus infections.

UKs benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 2.84 percent, Germanys Dax ended up by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.49 percent.

Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with healthcare stocks providing the biggest boost after Joe Biden overtook Bernie Sanders to become the new front-runner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.36 percent, S&P 500 closed by 0.45 percent, Nasdaq ended up by 0.52% percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields, which rose on Thursday after better-than-expected June jobs data, slipped later in the session ahead of a long holiday weekend, which could bring more troubling news in the battle against the coronavirus outbreak.

The benchmark 10-year yield, which had reached asession high of 0.724%, was last down 1.1 basis points at 0.6709%.

Commodities Recap

Gold reversed course and edged higher on Thursday as the dollar eased, though the metal traded below an eight-year peak hit in the last session as prospects for economic recovery improved after data showed the U.S. economy created record jobs in June.



Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,777.04 per ounce by 1:42 p.m. EDT (1742 GMT), holding close to the near eight-year high of $1,788.96 hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.6% at $1,790 per ounce.

Oil futures gained more than 2% on Thursday, supported by a drop in U.S. unemployment and a drawdown in crude inventories, but a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus infections fanned concerns that economic activity will weaken in coming weeks.

Brent crude futures settled at $43.14 a barrel, rising $1.11, or 2.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $40.65 a barrel, up 83 cents, or 2.1%.

AMERICA’S ROUNDUP: DOLLAR FALTERS AS DECENT U.S. DATA CURBS SAFE HAVEN DEMAND, WALL STREET GAINS, GOLD RETREATS FROM NEAR 8-YEAR PEAK, OIL PRICES FIRM ON FACTORY, INVENTORY DATA-JULY 2ND, 2020

Market Roundup

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing data hits over one-year high

• US Private payrolls miss expectations in June – ADP

• U.S. marks record single-day spike in virus cases

• US June ADP Nonfarm Employment Change2,369K, 3,000K forecast, -2,760K previous

• US Seevol Cushing Storage Report -1.637M,-0.183M previous

• US June Manufacturing PMI 49.8, 49.6 forecast, 39.8 previous

• US June ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 56.4, 31.8 previous

• US June ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.6 ,49.5 forecast, 43.1 previous

• US June ISM Manufacturing Employment 42.1, 43.0 forecast, 32.1 previous

• US June ISM Manufacturing Prices 51.3, 43.0 forecast, 43.0 previous

• US Construction May Spending (MoM) -2.1%, 1.0% forecast, -2.9% previous

• US Crude Oil Inventories -7.195M,-0.710M forecast, 1.442M previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 22:00 New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q2) 92.1% previous

• 22:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q2) -70% previous

• 23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) 3.9% previous

• 23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,542.0B previous

• 23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -421.9B previous

• 01:30 Australia May Exports (MoM) -11% previous

• 01:30 Australia May Imports (MoM) -10% previous

• 01:30 Australia May Trade Balance 8.800B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency summaries

EUR/USD: The euro gained against dollar on Wednesday as improved European economic data lifted euro across the board. With transmission rates of the coronavirus falling in much of Europe, and economies opening up, IHS Markit’s final euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moved closer to the 50-mark separating growth from contraction in June. Germany’s manufacturing sector also contracted at a slower pace as Europe’s largest economy lifted restriction. The euro fell 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.1251 at 20:48 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1292 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1289 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1236 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1162 (38.2% fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. data clipped safe-haven demand for dollars and as British manufacturing survey data pointed to a small increase in output after the historic collapse caused by the coronavirus. The Purchasing Managers Index survey for June came in at 50.1, in line with a forecast from economists polled by Reuters and up from 40.7 in May. It was unrevised from a preliminary reading. The move above the 50 line signifies growth for the first time since February. After earlier trading flat, the pound was up 0.4% to $1.2475 by 20:48 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2441 (14 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2516 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2362 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2306 (50% fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened on Wednesday against its U.S. counterpart following data pointing to a recovery in manufacturing and on bets for a COVID-19 vaccine, while the risk-on mood pushed the U.S. dollar lower. U.S. manufacturing activity data on Wednesday is forecast to show a recovery from an 11-year low in April while the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday is expected to show the economy added 3 million jobs in June. Brent crude rose 2.0% to $42.10 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up 2.1% at $40.10 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3611 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3621 (5 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3550 (21DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3475 (23.6% fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as dollar was bogged down in worries about surging coronavirus cases in the United States on Wednesday, even as a slew of data hinted at signs of an economic recovery. Coronavirus cases surged, with the United States recording 47,000 new infections on Tuesday, its biggest single-day spike since the pandemic began. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.83 (100 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.27 (61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.37 (50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 106.72 (38.2 %fib ).

Equities Recap

Equities Recap

Hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine pulled European stocks from losses earlier on Wednesday, after fears of a no-deal Brexit and anxieties relating to the European Union’s recovery fund had weighed on sentiment.

UKs benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.19 percent, Germanys Dax ended down by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.18 percent.

U.S. stock markets gained on Wednesday following a string of data pointing to a recovery in manufacturing, and on bets for a COVID-19 vaccine.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.30 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.50 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.95 % percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields on the long end of the curve shot higher on Wednesday after data showed manufacturing activity rebounded in June and minutes from the Federal Reserves last meeting indicated yield curve control was not coming anytime soon.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 2.9 basis points at 0.6824%.

Commodities Recap

Gold dropped from a near eight-year high on Wednesday as equities gained on the back of encouraging U.S. manufacturing data and rising hopes for a potential COVID-19 vaccine.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,770.57 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. EDT (1731 GMT), having earlier hit a peak since October 2012 at $1788.96. U.S. gold futures settled down 1.1%, at $1,779.90.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday following a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories from record highs and a string of positive manufacturing data, but a surge in coronavirus cases tempered gains.

Brent crude rose 76 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $42.03 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 55 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $39.82 a barrel.

FXWIREPRO: CAN USMCA & PMIS BRING IN OPTIMISM FOR MEXICAN PESO? UPHOLD USD/MXN CALL SPREADS

The recent publication of the PMIs in a number of countries illustrated a significant improvement of sentiment. It seems questionable though whether sentiment in Mexico has improved to the same extent (publication of the PMI today). But the corona virus is still spreading rapidly in Mexico and it is likely to be some time before the pandemic can be contained. The successor agreement of the NAFTA, called USMCA, will come into force today and that is likely to kindle hope in Mexico that the economy will recover rapidly from the corona shock as a result of foreign trade. The sceptics are likely to remain in the majority though. While the pandemic is still limiting economic activity or there is a risk of more severe restrictions in the future, the economy is likely to recover only slowly. Moreover some of the Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s decisions caused uncertainty amongst companies, most recently also amongst foreign companies. Foreign as well as domestic investors have to expect their plans to be thwarted by the President, regardless of whether the projects have already been initiated. This reduces the attractiveness of Mexico as a location for investors. And in the end US President Donald Trump’s political decisions also entail risks. Regardless of a trade agreement Trump has proven repeatedly in the past that a country can quickly fall into disgrace.

We therefore expect that the economic recovery in Mexico will be rather slow. If market sentiment improves again the peso is likely to be able to benefit to some extent, but the depressed economic outlook is likely to limit the appreciation potential.

The peso has appreciated close to 8% over the last month, outperforming most of its EM peers, though still remains 15% weaker YTD. The recent rally was driven by a general improvement in risk sentiment in EM FX, helped by COVID-19 re-openings, a China V-shaped recovery (which helped EM BoP dynamics also), cheap valuations and very light positioning. MXN ticked all these boxes while also enjoying among the highest real rates in EM, which supported its rally further.

OTC Updates and Options Strategies:

As stated in our previous posts, the positively skewed IVs of USDMXN of 3m tenors have delivered as expected and have still been indicating upside risks (bids for OTM call strikes upto 24.40 levels is observed), while IV remains on lower side and it is perceived to be conducive for options writers.

Considering the current MXN skew setup and the receding risks for MXN spot we are open to taking the gamma risk in order to more efficiently reap the extra OTM vs ATM premium on MXN put side. 1*1.5 MXN ratio put vol spreads have shown strong and almost equivalent systematic returns for USDMXN and EURMXN over last few years.

3M USDMXN ATM/25D 1*1.5 vol ratio call spread vs 22.80/25.77 indicative (spot reference: 22.90 levels). Courtesy: Sentry & Commerzbank

FXWIREPRO: TAKE A GLANCE AT HEDGING OUTLOOK ACROSS VARIOUS ASSET CLASSES BEFORE ENTERING IN H2’2020

It is becoming really very tough to keep a check on the pandemic Covid-19 in some regions but one can easily make out that the market a little for being uncertain as we are heading into H2’2020 and as a result, showing more risk aversion again and again. Of course, some economic data has admittedly been positive, which is also likely to be the case with today’s US ADP index or tomorrow’s US labour market report for June. The apprehensive news are increasing and is tainting the emerging optimism and hence, wise hedging seems to be highly essential: there are many new partial lockdowns around the globe, central bankers such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seem concerned about the slow economic recovery (according to Powell the economic outlook was “extraordinarily uncertain”), the tensions between the US and China are rising again (just think Hong Kong), there is a lack of process in the Brexit process and as a result a clear risk of a no deal scenario at the end of the year, there is disagreement within the EU about the EUR750bn recovery plan but at the same time the expectations in the EU summit on 17thJuly are high. There is enough there to cause some uncertainty. And that is why the dollar is in demand with EUR-USD trading at the lower end of the 1.1170-1.1420 range.

Holding defensive currencies like JPY vs USD and USD vs EM has delivered in 90-100% of Equity drawdowns given the tendency of funding currencies to be bought back when macro/market volatility rise and carry trades are unwound (refer above chart). The Swiss franc rises less consistently (67% of episodes), perhaps because it is not so universally used as yen or US dollars as a funding vehicle.

The usefulness of FX hedges in future could depend largely on the existence of a large short base in JPY or USD, since a primary driver of these currencies appreciation is a buyback of a funding source rather than a central bank response function. Golds historical performance during Equity sell-offs (appreciation in about 60% of instances) has also been only moderately reliable, probably because no central bank can control its price directly or immediately (unlike the Feds impact on USTs), nor is it a funding currency (so less supported by positioning unwinds during deleveragings). The bid for bullion comes on expectations that some investors might choose to transact in it eventually, due to loss of faith in all government-issued currencies. Holding baskets of Quality versus Value stocks within an equity index delivers consistent outperformance during sell-offs (87% success rate) but quite low average returns (less than 2% per episode, compared to 2.5% on USTs and 3-4% on some FX hedges).

Although the gamut of cryptocurrencies show some sort of resistance but many cryptos seemed unable to show defensive properties during periods of high equity market stress, having risen in only one-fourth of such periods.

The good news is that during this June’s market drawdown due to a pick-up in COVID-19 infections, all traditional hedges such as USTs, JPY vs USD, USD vs EM FX and Gold continue to deliver positive returns.

Hence, there is little reason to question a conventional strategy, with the caveat that returns on Treasury hedges are bounded the more rates decline towards zero. For those thinking beyond the conventional hedges because they see limited upside on Treasury returns, the two most interesting markets look US HG Credit and EM Local Bonds with an FX hedge, both due to recent changes in central bank behavior during crises. Courtesy: JPM & Commerzbank

FXWIREPRO: RISK-AVERSION SENTIMENT TO RENEW KIWIS DOLLAR’S BEARISHNESS – BID NZD/USD 3M IV SKEWS AND DEPLOY HEDGING STRATEGIES

We have been bearish NZDUSD, owing to idiosyncratic growth challenges, and a dovish central bank. The RBNZ’s priorities are quite clear. They want a weaker exchange rate and have greater than average risk tolerance in getting it.

Mid-May’s burst of RBNZ dovishness was followed by a pretty much uninterrupted 8% rally in NZDUSD. In reality though, this bullish turn is less of a direct challenge to the RBNZ’s rhetoric than it is maintenance of the very high correlation to global risk markets that
NZD has demonstrated all year (refer above chart).

The medium-term perspectives: Risk sentiment is expected to remain firm into year-end, supported by unprecedented global central bank and government stimulus. In addition, NZ’s economic rebound has been slightly stronger than previously expected. All that should help NZDUSD end the year at around 0.65 levels. In the interim, there remains potential for a pullback to 0.61 on bouts of risk aversion, for example if the recent phase of positive NZ data surprises flips to data disappointments.

OTC Updates and Hedging Strategies:

Let’s now quickly glance through OTC updates before deep diving into the strategic frameworks of NZDUSD. The pair is showing moderated IVs among G10 FX bloc (3m IVs are in between 10.04 – 11.67%).

IV factor is highly imperative in FX option dynamics because the option pricing significantly depends on future volatility, and it is quite impossible for any veteran to ascertain accurate future volatility.

The skewness of 3m IVs still signals extreme downside risks, bids for OTM put strikes are quite visible (up to 0.6250 for these tenors, refer 2nd chart). Based on above-mentioned fundamental factors and OTC outlook, diagonal debit put spreads are advocated, the strategy is designed to mitigate the downside risks with a reduced cost of trading.

The execution: Short 1m (1.5%) OTM put option with positive theta (position seems good even if the underlying spot goes either sideways or spikes mildly), simultaneously, add long in 2 lots of delta long in 3m (1%) ITM -0.79 delta put options capitalizing on the minor upswings in the short-run.