Study1: multi-currency analysis for scalping and beyond - page 9
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Where does it account for short-term Central Bank interventions and other manifestations of the popularity of any one currency?
There is information on volumes and their direction on each currency pair traded. Based on this information, you can tell how the amount/volume of each currency changes separately. And based on this information we can make an analysis. This information is not present in the prices (the prices take it into consideration ex post facto) in general, from which (the prices) are built the so-called currency indices.
On the basis of the turnover it is possible to analyse the massive inflows of money and vice versa, the withdrawal of any currency from the turnover. Even if it is done anonymously through third parties by the same Central Bank.
That's fucking currency-by-currency analysis, not what currency indices do.
interventions? volumes? .....
Do you have a "spy indicator"? :) - These trade secrets will never be known to anyone, even the news is post factum, with frantic ups and downs on the chart.
you cannot work without a strategy, not in multicurrency trading or in regular trading, and developing a strategy is a completely different matter, you are looking for predictions, not a strategy.
reread the first posts in this thread - all that the topicstarter can "squeeze" out of his research is just to identify a non-market quote and no more.
In general, he did not get anything out of his research that he provided, only interim conclusions. It is food for thought, not a guide to action. You have jumped to conclusions about non-market quotes. Everything there is market - the quotes history was taken from a reliable source.
My feeling is that for multicurrency trading you have to use anchor pairs as in T101 or use indexes, for multicurrency trading it's necessary to form a portfolio, otherwise it won't be a multicurrency trade, but a search for correlation dependencies or multicurrency arbitrage, at least I see economic dependencies in indexes, so for example the Canadian trade-weighted index is more than half occupied by USDCAD:
A portfolio is not necessary. Generally speaking, portfolio trading is not multicurrency analysis, just multicurrency trading. Trade the same Dow Jones - that's portfolio trading for you. No analysis, nothing at all, just convenient trading of a previously formed portfolio by someone based on a primary school notion of how trading works. But you can still justify them, because making complicated calculations at the time was extremely problematic. Now, that problem is gone, but everybody is doing it the old-fashioned way.
And multicurrency arbitrage, on the contrary, implies multicurrency trading. And it is useless to say anything about it, because everything is already explained to the very bottom on this very resource.
You, Igor, do not get angry. Yes, I look like a drooling upstart. But the Canadian trade-weighted index, for example, is calculated on the basis of some coefficients. Someone said he factored in Canada's economic ties etc. He allegedly looked up economic indicators and did a lot of analytical work, and probably even created a mathematical model and calculated those coefficients. And he does this far from often. And now you have believed that uncle and now based on his coefficients you are calculating some trade-weighted index of the Canadian, which is in fact based on something incomprehensible.
This is as much of a mishap as comparing unemployment rates in the US and Europe based on official data. And the fact that they are counted completely differently and it is simply not correct to compare them...
interventions? volumes? .....
do you have a "spy indicator"? :) - These trade secrets will never be the first to know, even the release of the next news is already post facto with frantic ups/downs on the chart
working without a strategy is not possible in multicurrency trading or in conventional trading, and the development of a strategy is a completely different issue, you are looking for predictions, not a strategy.
What the fuck is an insider? There is no insider. Look at how trading is going on EBS, CME and other venues. There's that info there. The same as it is on classic exchanges. The information about deals turnover is available, the information may be unavailable only about participants of deals. And what does this have to do with the frenzied ups and downs anyway? Turnovers don't predict them, they filter them. Look at turnovers during the news, they are ridiculous. What the fuck do you consider a spike of 10mio when hundreds of mio's are right where they were? OK, turnovers are a separate topic. Perhaps with MT5 it will gain popularity.
About the prediction, let others look for it. You don't need it to be profitable at all.
this "uncle" is http://indices .markit.com/ who published the data at the beginning of 2010, and there is confidence that the trend of currency indices will continue during 2010 and no more, the currency index shows the relative state of a country's economy or perhaps the liquidity of the currency. Note the relative condition, i.e. relative to the previous one, and as we know one of the fundamental statements - "history repeats itself".
Well, let you have your own methodology of determining a "skewness" or arbitrage - well, what is the strategy? With entries it seems clear - if there is a skewness, let us enter the market, what pairs? What are the conditions for exiting the position?
As for the strategy, it would be interesting to discuss it, and what indicators/skewnesses to use - not important.
Generally speaking, the classic currency indices are simple indicators whose idea level is at the initial stage, like the MAs.
The most advanced multicurrency indicator is based on the cluster approach, but it does not take into account changing weights that have a direct dependence on the current turnover.
You are reading the most subjective thread about multicurrency analysis... I would be happy to have a constructive discussion so that the thread actually contains worthwhile information on the subject.
OK, let you have your own methodology of determining "skewness" or arbitrage - well, what is the strategy? With entries it seems clear - if there is a skewness we enter the market, what pairs? What are the conditions for exiting the trade?
As for the strategy, it would be interesting to discuss it, and what indicators/reversals to use - is not important.
Now to the point. I made an assumption and a tiny bit of research on this topic, which I presented at the beginning of the branch. I haven't done any statistical research on it yet. At the moment I will develop the idea in the form of Expert Advisor that will search for rebalancing using voiced methodology (even a code is provided) and move by/against rebalancing (both variants must be considered separately). Exiting a position - at the moment only pull-ups and stops come to mind. There is no normal exit signal yet. I will develop this. I would welcome any constructive criticism. But not this crap: "guaranteed loss". I'm digging where they either haven't dug or haven't dug enough. The likelihood of a bust is high, but that's no reason to back down.
Also interested in all methods of multicurrency analysis. Who did it, write here. Let there be a normal branch on the case, without the usual bullshit.
Generally speaking, the classic currency indices are simple indicators whose idea level is at the initial stage, like the MAs.
The most advanced multicurrency indicator is based on the cluster approach, but it does not take into account changing weights that have a direct dependence on the current turnover.
You are reading the most subjective thread about multicurrency analysis... I would be happy to have a constructive discussion so that the thread actually contains worthwhile information on the subject.
That's right, it's getting closer...
Just keep writing: "but I won't tell you anything else". I told you to point out the good discussions if you don't want to get involved.
It feels like you are putting pressure on your interlocutor, including a potential one.
Have you been kicked out (escaped) from a multi-currency research institute? What's your hurry?
It feels like you are pressuring the person you are talking to, including the potential one.
If it feels like that, let's try not to pressurise.