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Hello forum dwellers, I am a first time first timer and the description is similar to this "youngster" portrayed by ForexTools
Is it all so hopeless with the tester and you can't trust the test results? Or is it only for "pips" systems?
Maybe experienced people will tell me....
There really are a lot of pitfalls. I personally mostly use the tester to detect logical errors in codes. There are a lot of places on the chart with perverse situations on which the logic of the algorithm is tested: "Well, here it should have opened a position/point/drawn a line... but it didn't open it - why?! .... aaaa!!!!!!!!!" - and a small typo in the code or a big hole in the algorithm is fixed :)
For me the most important indicators are drawdown and ratio of profitable and losing trades (and a chain of continuous losses/profits).
In your case, waiting for a moose in a third of the deposit?! - I personally do not have enough nerves and the ratio of profitable/lossmaking trades in MTS should be the opposite (IMHO): 70% profitable 30% loss-making trades or else the chance of losing the deposit in your case will be 70 out of 100.
Is it really that hopeless with the tester and you cannot trust the test results? Or is it only for "pips" systems?
It is reasonable doubts for a beginner. But one may as well ask "Can we trust the hammer? The tester can and should be trusted, because it is quite accurate and unbiased, it's just a tool. It does not flirt with you, it does not make eyes at you, it does not trick you for dough. But it is worth spending a little time to learn how to use it and interpret the results correctly. There are quite a few articles like "Evaluation of test results", any resulting set of parameters should be confirmed by the OOS test, etc.
ZS.
I'm reminded of a joke here, about clowns, I don't even know why):
-I don't go past the circus.
-Why?
-I get beaten up by clowns!!!
-Are you serious?
-No shit, with a smile.
good result - go for the championship !
Yeah, except for the championship ;). But it's not quite clear - is the drawdown of more than 7000 on a fixed lot or with volume growth? If it is with gain, then yes, I agree, it is not bad. If it is a fixed lot, then, by the law of meanness, we may fall into such a drawdown interval at once, when starting the strategy, and lose the deposit.
I also need to look at the interval of this drawdown. Something tells me that it happened from May till the end of July. And the earnings started at the end of July - we went into a trend. And the quality of modelling is low...
There really are a lot of pitfalls here. Personally, I mostly use the tester to detect logical errors in codes. The chart is full of places with perverse situations on which the logic of the algorithm is tested: "Well, here it should have opened a position/point/drawn a line... but it didn't open it - why?! .... aaaa!!!!!!!!!" - and a small typo in the code or a big hole in the algorithm is fixed :)
For me the most important indicators are drawdown and ratio of profitable and losing trades (and a chain of continuous losses/profits).
In your case, waiting for a moose in a third of the deposit?! - My personal nerves are not strong enough, while the ratio of profitable/lossmaking trades at MTS should be the opposite (IMHO): 70% profitable 30% loss-making trades or there is a 70 out of 100 chance to lose the deposit.
the statistics on the ratio of losses to profitable trades does not always seem to me to be an indicator
you can have 70% of bad entries - 30% keep good trends! from start to finish and thereby more than cover the loss
it seems to me there are more losing trades than profiting trades
but their loss is cut in the beginning and profit goes up
---
look at the ratio of the winner of the 2008 championship!
it will not impress - it seems he has 50/50 - but he cuts his losses at the very beginning and gives profits to grow
his RETURN FACTOR is over 7!!! and the drawdown is low
--
I think the parameters to pay attention to are very dependent on the TS
oops - one truth is the INCREDIBLE amount of profit! :-)
YuraZ wrote (a) >>
put on a DEMK for a few days! ( I recommend that you send it to the championship)
after testing on the demo for a week or more.
Run the same period on the tester
there will be variation! but it should be minimal! i.e. entries should coincide exactly in time!
this is the first quality criterion!
Well, maybe for the Championship ;). That's just not quite clear - drawdown over 7000 is it on constant lot or with volume increment? If it is with increment, then yes, not bad, I agree. If it is the fixed lot, then by the law of meanness we may fall into such a drawdown interval at once, and lose the deposit. Also we need to look at the interval of this drawdown. Something tells me that it happened from May till the end of July. And we started getting profit at the end of July - we entered the trend. And the quality of modelling is low...
Or is the demo the second layer of testing after the tester, and the real will be the third?
i put the chart in the report, but as a result it was gone, i will attach the file, i will tell you right away that it was a constant 0.1 lots and the drawdown was 7000 on the trend, it's just not scary, because with these idle funds of about 23000 it is normal
how to improve the quality of the simulation?
how to improve the quality of the simulation?
F2, load minutes per euro, agree to re-calculate. The end date should be chosen one or two days earlier than the current date.
i have to tell you right away that it's a fixed 0.1 lot and the drawdown was 7000 on the trend, it's not scary, because i have 23000 available funds, it's OK.
I put a chart in the report, but it has disappeared, I will attach the file.
I put the chart in the report, but as a result it was gone, I will attach the file, I will tell you right away that it is on a constant 0.1 lots and the drawdown was 7000 on the trend, it is just not scary, because with such free funds of about 23000 it is normal
how to improve the quality of the simulation?
my use of the demo is quite different from the real one.
1st layer tester
2nd layer demo
3rd micro-real
4 -real
---
Run it on different periods - take a look.
but you write your systems for the 2008 market - and it's a different market and it doesn't compare to 2006 or 2007
the average Euro move is over 170-200 pips from high to low
in 2007 it was 80 pips from high to low and 60 pips on the open
---
the organizers did not choose the testing period of a year for nothing! or rather 8 months of the year
you have to hand it to their professionalism - for 3 months ahead, a year is quite enough for the parameters selection!
a longer term is not reasonable ?
think about it! - If you optimise the Expert Advisor once every month or every three months, and still you will profit!
i mean, isn't it enough?
--
and eternally working automat-grial - well if someone has not given up hope - can find :-)
---
but in general, i prefer to write semi-automatic EAs! - they are more reliable !
for an hour's work from $100 - $150
2 to 3 days' work from $500 and up
two weeks of work from $2, 000-$3,000 and up
These are the real rates.
if the system (indicator) is put on stream - then the sales could be $50-100
Where do you get your rates?
You are expensive.
20 quid, even euros, per manhour is very good. The more hours, the less, but not much.
America is another matter, but it's easier to part with the dough there, too.
I put a chart in the report, but it has disappeared, I will attach the file.
I put the chart in the report, but as a result it was gone, I will attach the file, I will tell you right away that it is on a constant 0.1 lots and the drawdown was 7000 on the trend, it is just not scary, because with such free funds of about 23000 it is normal
how to improve the quality of the simulation?
ooo - recommendation withdrawn !
burn