Grail. The puzzle is an interesting theme. - page 12
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Look. Example. We buy 1 lot, stop 34 (as in the first post-34$), in 21 points we buy 2 lots, stop 34 pips(-68$), in another 21 points we buy 3 lots again(risk 102$), stop 34, in another 21-5 lots(170$), moose 34. Now let's do the math. We are closing on the loss of 5 lots. Our loss: -170$+63$-2*13$-3*13=-172$ Or was I wrong somewhere?
And if we use reverse pyramid, the last position would be closed with a loss of -34 $, the penultimate -13 $pp, the second with a profit of +21 $pp (but it was the maximum volume), the very first +34 $. As we see, we would have anyway made profit. Do not have any illusions. You accumulate a position and then the last one covers all the profit obtained from the previous ones, as it is constantly opened with a volume 1.618 times bigger than the previous one. Accordingly, the previous trade needs to be closed in profit +55 points (the next Fibo value) for the total profit to be taken. But the previous position is closed with a loss of -13 pips. If you trade on the demo using this MM system, most likely you will close the last trade with profit (by gut feeling?). I compared the worst case development of your method and Bill Williams' method (reverse pyramiding). If I'm wrong, please show me where. The topic is interesting, but I think only using reverse pyramiding.
Well, let me copy the calculation from the beginning of the thread:
I agree, just read it again: at 250 pips t/p with 0.02 lot takes 434 quid profit at 4.8 quid risk, the second order takes 1.6 quid risk. A simple order opening takes 4.8 quid risk, 50 quid profit. Convincing?
Let's take simple maths - science is precise, unlike moon phases.
We have opened 40 points, lot 20 quid - our profit on the first order is 20*0.4=8 quid. The worst scenario - in this place triggered the second order another 20 quid - a total position of 40 quid and as bad luck - stop! Our risk is 40 * 0.24 = 9.6, but the initial profit on the first order of $ 8 total 9.6-8 = 1.6 dollars. We will not calculate the third order - we see that it is going to profit. Where does $434- come from? At t/p 250 points we will have 7 open orders (0.02; 0.02; 0.04; 0.06; 0.1; 0.16; 0.26). The first order will take 250 pips, the second 210, the third 170, the fourth 130, the fifth 90, the sixth 50, the seventh 10). Again to the maths, profit = 50 (20*2.5) + 42 (20*2.1) + 68 (40*1.7) + 78 (60*1.3) + 90 (100*0.9) + 80 (160*0.5) + 26 (260*0.1) = $434 with the risk I wrote.
Here the calculation for an initial order of 0.02 lots, to 1.0 lot just multiply the numbers by 50; the ratio 55/34 in percentage is identical to 40/24 (well almost...)
i.e. the risk on the first order is 0.02*24=4.8$, and on the second order it is only 1.6$. Relative to 1.0 lot = $240 vs $80
You've been speculating on this subject for a year now. Did you run the advisor? What does it show? Which way to think? Why to stop in one place?
You've been speculating on this subject for a year now. Did you run the advisor? What does it show? Which way to think? Why stop in one place?
There is no Expert Advisor, as it were. If I'm honest, I've turned on the initial version of Elitfybo in a place where I thought to open the market, it came out very good. To be an Expert Advisor, one should have a vector - conditions for the first order opening which are lacking at the moment.
And there is no advisor, per se. I have been honestly turning on the original Elitfibo version where I thought I would open on the market and it came out quite good. To be an Expert Advisor, we need a vector - the conditions of opening the first order which we do not have at the moment.
And there will be no vector, it simply does not exist.
I see there is no point in arguing with you. Everyone is going to stick to his or her position anyway. The market will judge, as they say. An alternative option for the EA in this case would be to use Elder's method of trend detection. Exposure 13+macd(12-26-9). If both went up, it means the trend is up and most likely will continue for some time. Elder's is an impulse system. I wrote some indicators for this system (to color bars, by the above algorithm, etc). If you need it you may download it here
http://www.procapital.ru/showpost.php?p=553386&postcount=22
I think it will be hard to find a better option.
I see there is no point in arguing with you. Everyone is going to stick to his or her position anyway. The market will judge, as they say. An alternative option for the EA in this case would be to use Elder's trend detection method. Exposure 13+macd(12-26-9). If both went up, it means the trend is up and most likely will continue for some time. Elder's is an impulse system. I wrote some indicators for this system (to color bars, according to the above algorithm, etc). If you need it you can download it here
http://www.procapital.ru/showpost.php?p=553386&postcount=22
I think it will be hard to find a better option.
Earlier you led the link Testing the RSI indicator capabilities in the second case, the possibility of entering and exiting the market
ONLY using the capabilities of RSI (7 bar)
This will make it easier to improve the Expert Advisor
as an option enter 20 - exit 80 and on H1 all works (according to the author of the article in the link)
Раннее Вы привели ссылку Тестируем возможности индикатора RSI во втором случае расматривается возможность входа и выхода из рынка
ТОЛЬКО используя возможности RSI (7 бар)
Это облегчит доработку советника
как вариант вход 20 - выход 80 и на Н1 все работает (по мнению автора статьи в ссылке)
Maybe so, but I was thinking to use an impulse system to determine the trend and then we can use RSI or Stochastic out of the overbought/oversold zone (towards the trend) as a signal to open the first order and close the last order using RSI (using the method described in the article). Myself I can hardly figure out the code of that EA, which was posted here (not enough experience yet), so I am helping with ideas =)
Checked RSI (7) on "today's" gbpusd history
we can improve it if entry at 15 and exit 77-76 is safer
and the impulse system will react to a flat?
But on Eurobucks it won't work or it will work backwards to the downside - weird?
Проверил RSI (7) на "сегоднешней" истории gbpusd
можно улучшить показатель если вход на 15 а выход 77-76 безопаснее
а импульсная система будет реагировать на флет?
Exactly the same as all wagons :)) You can partly get rid of by analysis on multiple timeframes (H1 && H4- as already written). Sometimes it saves...