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::: You must expect to be stung by bees when in search of honey :::
::: He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life :::
::: He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life :::
Mirza Baig
EUR/USD Tensions Very Elevated As Currency Wars Inflict Gridlock - BMO (eFXnews)
This is an in-depth piece on the ‘currency wars’ theme and the EUR.The main thrust of the piece in its entirety is decomposed as follows:
The ECB needs to be highly strategic in managing the value of the EUR, but the evidence suggests that for the time being it will have some but limited success in weakening the EUR’s nominal effective exchange rate.
If necessary, programmes of well-timed, staggered injections of unsterilised liquidity would appear to be the better options. There is not enough growth in the Euro Area, and the damages that would be inflicted by a re-fragmentation of banking systems are too treacherous for key exporting nations to waste time trying to engineer a ‘sweet spot’ in EURUSD.
Evidence of short-run pass-through from EUR fluctuations to domestic prices is scant. If the ECB is seeking to cap EUR strength, we think the main issue of consideration is one of politics, and of France. The ECB’s referee-like status within the bloc is probably being solidified with each passing day.
Global trade and financial interconnectedness seem to be a factor behind disinflationary pressures, as do cyclical negative commodity price shocks. ‘Currency wars’ and the impact of QE on asset prices appear to be adding to those disinflationary pressures. Debt dynamics in the developed world will keep the ‘currency wars’ theme in vogue for the foreseeable future.
Cointegration and correlation properties between EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest there may be a looming battle on the horizon between the ECB and the BoE. EURGBP may prove itself to be a ‘key battle ground’ in the global ‘currency wars’ theme.
EURUSD tensions will fade markedly once the Fed begins to taper its QE3 programm.
This is an in-depth piece on the ‘currency wars’ theme and the EUR.The main thrust of the piece in its entirety is decomposed as follows:
The ECB needs to be highly strategic in managing the value of the EUR, but the evidence suggests that for the time being it will have some but limited success in weakening the EUR’s nominal effective exchange rate.
If necessary, programmes of well-timed, staggered injections of unsterilised liquidity would appear to be the better options. There is not enough growth in the Euro Area, and the damages that would be inflicted by a re-fragmentation of banking systems are too treacherous for key exporting nations to waste time trying to engineer a ‘sweet spot’ in EURUSD.
Evidence of short-run pass-through from EUR fluctuations to domestic prices is scant. If the ECB is seeking to cap EUR strength, we think the main issue of consideration is one of politics, and of France. The ECB’s referee-like status within the bloc is probably being solidified with each passing day.
Global trade and financial interconnectedness seem to be a factor behind disinflationary pressures, as do cyclical negative commodity price shocks. ‘Currency wars’ and the impact of QE on asset prices appear to be adding to those disinflationary pressures. Debt dynamics in the developed world will keep the ‘currency wars’ theme in vogue for the foreseeable future.
Cointegration and correlation properties between EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest there may be a looming battle on the horizon between the ECB and the BoE. EURGBP may prove itself to be a ‘key battle ground’ in the global ‘currency wars’ theme.
EURUSD tensions will fade markedly once the Fed begins to taper its QE3 programm.
· 1
Mirza Baig
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· 1
Mirza Baig
The Fed Won't Derail USD/JPY; Stay Long - Morgan Stanley (eFXnews)
Last week minutes from the October FOMC meeting suggested that the FOMC is still concerned about communication regarding tapering and tightening while market pricing on rate expectations has already become more consistent with the Fed’s expected hiking path, notes Morgan Stanley.
"Credible forward guidance, a market that is more prepared for tapering, and growing evidence that the US economy is gaining momentum provides a positive rate and risk backdrop for USD/JPY," MS argues.
"When the Fed tapers, we do not expect a repeat of the May/June bond volatility and USD weakness against JPY. The market has adjusted to the Fed’s forward guidance, and the FOMC is likely to solidify that guidance even further," MS clarifies.
"With the front-end anchored, there is room for some steepening in the belly of the curve as the US economy improves. Indeed, the lessening fiscal drag and gradually recovering labor market should provide a lift to the US economy and the greenback," MS adds.
"All of this should happen in a constructive risk environment, which is a key component of JPY weakness, given its status as a global funding currency. Developments in Japan, including pension reform and the potential for more BoJ action next year, only strengthen the case," MS concludes.
In line with this view, MS maintains a long USD/JPY in its short-term macro portfolio targeting 103 and another long in its medium-term macro portfolio targeting 105.
Last week minutes from the October FOMC meeting suggested that the FOMC is still concerned about communication regarding tapering and tightening while market pricing on rate expectations has already become more consistent with the Fed’s expected hiking path, notes Morgan Stanley.
"Credible forward guidance, a market that is more prepared for tapering, and growing evidence that the US economy is gaining momentum provides a positive rate and risk backdrop for USD/JPY," MS argues.
"When the Fed tapers, we do not expect a repeat of the May/June bond volatility and USD weakness against JPY. The market has adjusted to the Fed’s forward guidance, and the FOMC is likely to solidify that guidance even further," MS clarifies.
"With the front-end anchored, there is room for some steepening in the belly of the curve as the US economy improves. Indeed, the lessening fiscal drag and gradually recovering labor market should provide a lift to the US economy and the greenback," MS adds.
"All of this should happen in a constructive risk environment, which is a key component of JPY weakness, given its status as a global funding currency. Developments in Japan, including pension reform and the potential for more BoJ action next year, only strengthen the case," MS concludes.
In line with this view, MS maintains a long USD/JPY in its short-term macro portfolio targeting 103 and another long in its medium-term macro portfolio targeting 105.
· 1
Mirza Baig
Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Using Bollinger Bands (Kitco.com)
The Bollinger Bands (B-Bands) technical study was created by John Bollinger, the president of Bollinger Capital Management Inc., based in Manhattan Beach, California. Bollinger is well respected in the futures and equities industries.
Traders generally use B-Bands to determine overbought and oversold zones, to confirm divergences between prices and other technical indicators, and to project price targets. The wider the B-bands on a chart, the greater the market volatility; the narrower the bands, the less market volatility.
B-Bands are lines plotted on a chart at an interval around a moving average. They consist of a moving average and two standard deviations charted as one line above and one line below the moving average. The line above is two standard deviations added to the moving average. The line below is two standard deviations subtracted from the moving average.
Some traders use B-Bands in conjunction with another indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the market price touches the upper B-band and the RSI does not confirm the upward move (i.e. there is divergence between the indicators), a sell signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the upward move, no sell signal is generated, and in fact, a buy signal may be indicated.
If the price touches the lower B-band and the RSI does not confirm the downward move, a buy signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the downward move, no buy signal is generated, and in fact, a sell signal may be indicated.
Another strategy uses the Bollinger Bands without another indicator. In this approach, a chart top occurring above the upper band followed by a top below the upper band generates a sell signal. Likewise, a chart bottom occurring below the lower band followed by a bottom above the lower band generates a buy signal.
B-Bands also help determine overbought and oversold markets. When prices move closer to the upper band, the market is becoming overbought, and as the prices move closer to the lower band, the market is becoming oversold.
Importantly, the market’s price momentum should also be taken into account. When a market enters an overbought or oversold area, it may become even more so before it reverses. You should always look for evidence of price weakening or strengthening before anticipating a market reversal.
Bollinger Bands can be applied to any type of chart, although this indicator works best with daily and weekly charts. When applied to a weekly chart, the Bands carry more significance for long-term market changes. John Bollinger says periods of less than 10 days do not work well for B-Bands. He says that the optimal period is 20 or 21 days.
Like most computer-generated technical indicators, I use B-Bands as mostly an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions, or for divergence--but not as a specific generator of buy and sell signals for my trading opportunities. It's just one more "secondary" trading tool, as opposed to my "primary" trading tools that include chart patterns and trend lines and fundamental analysis.
The Bollinger Bands (B-Bands) technical study was created by John Bollinger, the president of Bollinger Capital Management Inc., based in Manhattan Beach, California. Bollinger is well respected in the futures and equities industries.
Traders generally use B-Bands to determine overbought and oversold zones, to confirm divergences between prices and other technical indicators, and to project price targets. The wider the B-bands on a chart, the greater the market volatility; the narrower the bands, the less market volatility.
B-Bands are lines plotted on a chart at an interval around a moving average. They consist of a moving average and two standard deviations charted as one line above and one line below the moving average. The line above is two standard deviations added to the moving average. The line below is two standard deviations subtracted from the moving average.
Some traders use B-Bands in conjunction with another indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the market price touches the upper B-band and the RSI does not confirm the upward move (i.e. there is divergence between the indicators), a sell signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the upward move, no sell signal is generated, and in fact, a buy signal may be indicated.
If the price touches the lower B-band and the RSI does not confirm the downward move, a buy signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the downward move, no buy signal is generated, and in fact, a sell signal may be indicated.
Another strategy uses the Bollinger Bands without another indicator. In this approach, a chart top occurring above the upper band followed by a top below the upper band generates a sell signal. Likewise, a chart bottom occurring below the lower band followed by a bottom above the lower band generates a buy signal.
B-Bands also help determine overbought and oversold markets. When prices move closer to the upper band, the market is becoming overbought, and as the prices move closer to the lower band, the market is becoming oversold.
Importantly, the market’s price momentum should also be taken into account. When a market enters an overbought or oversold area, it may become even more so before it reverses. You should always look for evidence of price weakening or strengthening before anticipating a market reversal.
Bollinger Bands can be applied to any type of chart, although this indicator works best with daily and weekly charts. When applied to a weekly chart, the Bands carry more significance for long-term market changes. John Bollinger says periods of less than 10 days do not work well for B-Bands. He says that the optimal period is 20 or 21 days.
Like most computer-generated technical indicators, I use B-Bands as mostly an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions, or for divergence--but not as a specific generator of buy and sell signals for my trading opportunities. It's just one more "secondary" trading tool, as opposed to my "primary" trading tools that include chart patterns and trend lines and fundamental analysis.
· 1
Mirza Baig
Hai lasciato un feedback allo sviluppatore per il lavoro Stop Loss EA
Excellent developer, properly understood my requirements and demonstrated the EA too. Will work with him again.
· 1
Mirza Baig
Hai lasciato un feedback allo sviluppatore per il lavoro Job for Totom
Very competent developer and delivers what is required from him, neat and clean code at a very reliable price. Always recommended and 5 stars
· 1
Mirza Baig
Hai lasciato un feedback allo sviluppatore per il lavoro Multiple Pair Scalper
Understands the requirements first, and implements as per needs. Very cool-minded and patient, also give suggestions. 5 stars for him.
· 1
Mirza Baig
Hai lasciato un feedback allo sviluppatore per il lavoro EA Per My Specification (for Totom)
Totom developed the EA exactly according to my requirements and also providing techical after-sale support as to the mechanics of the EA. Fully recommended and 5-Star developer. :)
· 1