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Mohamed Mesbah Mohamed Mohamed
usdjpy today
USD/JPY has traded steadily over recent years, but has dragged lower in spite of initially favorable interest rate spreads.
It appears that interest rates do not matter so much to USD/JPY in modern times.
Having said this, the recent crash in U.S. rates (while Japan's short-term rate has held steady) is certainly not supportive for USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, a Purchasing Power Parity model indicates that USD/JPY is either fairly valued or slightly overvalued, and judging by history it is more likely than not that USD/JPY has more room to fall.
These points, combined with the fact that Japanese terms of trade have substantially outperformed U.S. terms of trade this year, would support the case for a bearish bias for USD/JPY over the medium to long term.
The USD/JPY currency pair, which expresses the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the Japanese yen, is currently trading at a level that is in line with the pair's long-term historical movement. The monthly candlestick chart below illustrates this, with a "Fibonacci retracement" (using the highs and lows since the 1990s), indicating the long-term midpoint (the 0.50 retracement level) at just under the 112 handle. USD/JPY currently trades just over 106.
USD/JPY has traded steadily over recent years, but has dragged lower in spite of initially favorable interest rate spreads.
It appears that interest rates do not matter so much to USD/JPY in modern times.
Having said this, the recent crash in U.S. rates (while Japan's short-term rate has held steady) is certainly not supportive for USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, a Purchasing Power Parity model indicates that USD/JPY is either fairly valued or slightly overvalued, and judging by history it is more likely than not that USD/JPY has more room to fall.
These points, combined with the fact that Japanese terms of trade have substantially outperformed U.S. terms of trade this year, would support the case for a bearish bias for USD/JPY over the medium to long term.
The USD/JPY currency pair, which expresses the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the Japanese yen, is currently trading at a level that is in line with the pair's long-term historical movement. The monthly candlestick chart below illustrates this, with a "Fibonacci retracement" (using the highs and lows since the 1990s), indicating the long-term midpoint (the 0.50 retracement level) at just under the 112 handle. USD/JPY currently trades just over 106.
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