On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 141
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I never cease to believe that traditional values rule. The trend is your friend.
But these newfangled Euro-people visiting barbershops, etc., have made up strange friends like mutual pair correlations (what a word...), convergences-fu-divergences and other, God forbid, triangles.
But Mishka can still be saved by persuading him to change his Euro-fancy nickname Michael for a normal Russian man's Michael, or at least Mikhalych.
Come on, guys, let's save the kid before the triangles turn his head completely round and seduce him with crazy money!
Greetings! I think you should diversify risks. Why open two deals with a full cut, when you can open 3-5 deals with smaller lot on different instruments and thus protect yourself from the situations the TS got into. It is Monday and it was really flat almost for all instruments, except pound (Audi was still lucky). After the first couple of trades in the pound, I went plus and decided not to go to the pound till the end of the next week, because the vote is coming up and there might be some sharp changes. Now I'm in the market on AUDJPY/USDJPY and AUDUSD/EURUSD. Still no convergence, but no divergence either. Risks are reduced, but I think for nothing on both instruments AUD is, but at the moment of entering from the Yen pairs was the best decision.
Regards, RomFil
This is not diversification, this is a position for AUDUSD and EURAUD, it's good if they are oppositely directed, because you trade AUDUSD and EURAUD = EURUSD, only through the .ru triple spread
Here is the diversification, you just need to select from 3 pairs - the optimal one with the largest spread
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About Unequal Probability of Price Going Up or Down
Vitaly Muzichenko, 2020.01.26 17:58
Thought-provoking
or at least Mihalych...
I think you misunderstood me. By diversification I meant working with different instruments, but with smaller volumes, not for the entire cut. Diversification into several trades of different instruments will allow avoiding a long "spreading" trend, in which the TS is now in. A simultaneous trend in instruments with different fundamentals is unlikely.
Well I showed you the "basis", you tradeAUDJPY/USDJPY=AUDUSD tradethrough the yen only. You can calculate the profit/loss on both pairs right now, and then turn on theAUDUSDchartand calculate the virtualprofit/lossfrom the opening to now.I think you will see for yourself.
P.S. I have already done the math.AUDJPY you are buying,USDJPY you are selling.
A simultaneous trend in instruments with different fundamentals is unlikely.
I confirm my words. I trade many currencies at the same time, but one trade on each currency pair. Sometimes out of 6-7 pairs 2 or 3 go in minus, the others help out.
Vitaly, I do not compare pairs with each other. I just open them where there is a signal. But what you told me is interesting.
Well I showed you the "basis", you tradeAUDJPY/USDJPY=AUDUSD tradethrough the yen only. You can calculate the profit/loss on both pairs right now, and then turn on theAUDUSDchartand calculate the sameprofit/lossfrom the opening.I think you will understand it.
I talk about tomatoes, you talk about cucumbers ... :)
Imagine the situation - in the Asian session, USDJPY jumps in the wrong direction. A loss appears in the pairAUDJPY/USDJPY. When will the convergence occur it is unknown may be as TC in a fortnight ... I analyze the charts in the morning and see, for example, thatAUDUSD/EURUSDhas a profit that exceeds the loss on the JPY pair - so I close, because I don't need to wait long. So that's diversification! Yes, the pairs are poorly chosen for the example, but I think I have explained it clearly in a hypothetical way.
P.S. It is possible not to close, but to wait. Because another pair will close in profit and I will have means for further work. And this pair should wait for convergence till the end of the world...
I confirm my words. I trade many currencies at the same time, but one trade on each currency pair. Sometimes out of 6-7 pairs 2 or 3 go in minus, the others help out.
Vitaly, I'm not reconciling pairs with each other yet. I just open them when there is a signal. But what you have told me is interesting.
I have been invited by an American broker to hold a webinar in the European affiliate in January. I am still thinking, but I may take 40-50 minutes in the first half of February, if I do not change my mind.
I will explain and show you everything.
I've learned so many times that it's all so useless... ...sometimes it's a pity for my time.
I keep telling them that entering in two pairs of one currency is cross trading, but it costs more, but they still do not understand me. They sit there with smart faces and calculate lots. Bullshit! Enter the cross, and no smart calculations are needed.
I have been invited by an American broker to hold a webinar at the European branch in January, I am still thinking about it, but I will probably take 40-50 minutes in the first half of February, if I do not change my mind.
I will explain and show you everything.
I've learned so many times that it's all so useless... ...sometimes it's a pity for my time.
I keep telling them that entering in two pairs of one currency is cross trading, but it costs more, but they still do not get it. They sit there with smart faces and calculate lots. Bullshit!
In 2014 I got a call from the Bank of England, so I hung up ;)
Nah, I'm a sociable person, I'll talk to everyone and comfort them if I need to)