Breaking through the morning flat
Nonsense, Yura! I've tested it on different combinations of pairs. There are profits, but deep drawdowns. It's unacceptable for me.
I think the idea is clear: using MetaTrader 4 platform to identify favourable time windows (time patterns) is a kind of analogue of "seasonality" in forex. My studies have shown a strong correlation when the quotes array is shifted by 24 hours (it may be called psychology). The idea was to check, like to combine what is mentioned in this thread + level breakdown + time (exactly at the end (beginning) of the hour, there is the highest density of quotes flow) and run it all to check. But I never got around to it.
Igor, if it's not too much trouble, your research in a bit more detail, if it detracts from your ichmo main branch, then don't.
Nonsense, Yura! I've checked it on different combinations of pairs. There are profits, but deep drawdowns. This is unacceptable for me.
but only as one of the variants.
The analysis is performed using a group of dependent pairs
EURUSD and CHFUSD is a special case,
Just EURUSD CHFUSD are very symmetrical pairs and it can be seen in the picture
everybody knows that if XXXUSD goes up, USDXXX pairs go down and vice versa
if the trend persists, this is a normal entry
it is just that if at one moment the breakthrough goes through several pairs - and if at the same time, then, as a rule - ( as a rule).
I'm not talking about the stability of this entry
but only as a variant, i.e. this principle can be used if other indicators confirm such entering.
Well, that's the thing, Yura, there are a lot of decoys! The breakdown occurs in all analysed pairs, you enter and the move goes back. You have to work with limits, i.e. on a bounce. I posted some research results in my forum, that disprove the stereotype of an inert market. That if the movement has started, it is more likely to continue. This may be true for some other markets, but in Forex the comeback is more frequent. I have statistically established this on 33 pairs studied.
Igor, based on statistics, you can derive some regularities
At one time I also wrote a simple module!
A flat breakthrough on two pairs usually reaches the target 161%, of course not many pips!
the statistical robot had the following algorithm
1 - break in the level of the flat which usually reaches the 161% target - stop behind the next level of the flat which usually goes 1-10 pips higher
Such trades are taken in 70-80% of cases - but I couldn't automate it because the LOSS exceeded the PROFIT of the system in case of not getting 161%.
if you work with your hands - or rather with your head - probable errors can be excluded by additional analysis
Nonsense, Yura! I checked it on different combinations of pairs. There is a profit, but deep drawdowns. This is not acceptable for me.
The important thing is to choose a target! If it hangs after a breakdown without a target, then yes, it can turn around a lot!
statistically, a breakdown usually (this does not mean that 100% of the time with a certain high probability), the FIRST breakdown reaches 161% by Fibo
i often use it - my favorite method for breaking this pattern is entrance not from the market but from a limit stop just above the lower level of the flat.
but this was in an uptrend!
in case of rising trend the market entry will be justified more often and the limiters, in a good uptrend remain below.
A break upwards on the upside simply confirms that we are likely to go higher...In an uptrend, a break-down usually forces me to place a limit order near 161, or to buy from the market near this level according to the situation on allied pairs
http://forum.masterforex-v.org/index.php?showtopic=9387
----
I will add the hour chart of CHIFA and EUR, entrance of course is in those days, when the clear breakdown of two pairs occurs or simultaneously or not at small intervals
they are quite synchronous with each other. that's why entries at a mutual breakdown and not every day
---
That's the thing, Yura, there are a lot of false positives! You enter, but the move goes backwards. In forex, you have to work with limiters, i.e. on a bounce. I posted some research results in my forum, that disprove the stereotype of an inert market. That if the movement has started, it is more likely to continue. This may be true for some other markets, but in Forex the comeback is more frequent. I have statistically established this on 33 pairs studied.
Imho, breakout work is justified only when there is a sufficiently narrow flat (for the Eurobucks not more than 30-40 pips). Only in that case it is possible to observe the right ratio between Take Profit and Stop Loss (for example 2:1 or at least 1.5:1). But if the flat is wide, the price is very likely to return after the breakout, and we will not manage to keep the necessary take profit/stop loss ratio.
In the picture above, the flat boundaries are incongruously defined. The required flat should be an explicit price consolidation area in a narrow range where the price oscillates up and down. But what is marked with red lines does not seem to be a flat. The March 25th from 6:00 to 10:30 is a flat.
Imho, breakout work is justified only when there is a sufficiently narrow flat (for the Eurobucks not more than 30-40 pips). Only in that case it is possible to observe the right ratio between Take Profit and Stop Loss (for example 2:1 or at least 1.5:1). But if the flat is wide, the price is very likely to return after the breakout, and we will not manage to keep the necessary take profit/stop loss ratio.
In the picture above, the flat boundaries are incongruously defined. The required flat should be an explicit price consolidation area in a narrow range where the price oscillates up and down. But what is marked with red lines does not seem to be a flat. March 25th from 6:00 till 10:30 is a flat.
this is the Asian session hours, it is not an attempt to look for a flat - although even such an attempt can be recreated by the corridor - 30p - 40p ? it is better to make this parameter configurable
in most cases the EUROPEAN SESSION breaks through this range - not always but in most cases - and what is characteristic is that according to statistics it reaches 161% as a rule in most cases
that is why the Asian session borders do not look ridiculous!
CHF entry with simultaneous breakdown of EUR down - CHF up
http://forum.masterforex-v.org/index.php?showtopic=9387&st=0&gopid=282289&#
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
You agree to website policy and terms of use
Here's one of the entry methods
if within an hour or two there is a synchronous breakthrough of the morning flat
you may enter the trade
The breakdown should occur on EUR and CHF at the same time
http://forum.masterforex-v.org/index.php?showtopic=5300&st=45&gopid=280578&#