Thoughts on some of the absurdity of multi-currency analysis. - page 33

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Zhunko:

It is necessary to introduce dynamic coefficients for each instrument in the index calculation. Without dynamic coefficients, there will be no anticipation.


Is there any mathematical or logical justification for this statement? I don't have any coefficients, but the anticipation does.
 
AlexeyFX:

Is there any mathematical or logical justification for this statement? I don't have any coefficients, but the prevarication does.

Yes nasyainika )))

If you read Eur index fushers in pips or via marketinfo tiqualue in the depo currency, there is an error related to the dynamics of tiqualue change.

I prefer to use Dol as a yardstick (for the fusher).

1000/iClose("USDJPY",0,iBarShift("USDJPY",0,Time[0],false)) //  ==  MarketInfo("USDJPY",MODE_TICKVALUE)

(in the course of a fusher's JPY rush).

I.e. the USDJPY chart shows the dynamics of Jpu to Meril, which means the calculated fusher will == JPYUSD))

Here's an example of eur by major (old boy please don't kick me so hard, just for an example, needs debugging!!!)

Files:
grafic_for_history22.mq4  6 kb
 
getch:

It's cold:

USD is the world's currency. This means that almost any commodity can be bought with USD
directly. Currency is also a commodity. Therefore all currencies have an exchange rate relative to the
USD - this is a characteristic of the value of the currency.
Previously, the world currency was gold. Therefore any currency could be bought for gold directly. Now it is not so, for example to buy EUR for gold, you have to buy USD for gold, and then EUR for USD.
One country has introduced a freely convertible currency ruble. This means that the value of the rouble became known in the world currency - the exchange rate RUB/USD appeared (the world currency took over all the goods in the territory of the rouble).

Warm:

Here I have described in detail an example of a EUR/GBP transaction from all sides.
Interestingly, at certain steps the world currency USD participates even in transactions between EUR and GBP.
Just as, for example, EUR/RUB, so the EUR/GBP rate is established through majors (EUR/USD and GBP/USD
). In other words,
the EUR/GBP
exchange rate does not provide any additional information compared to
EUR/USD and GBP/USD
.

.


Hot:

This means that whatever currency pair you trade, there will be a surplus of information about its behaviour in the majors. For example, to trade GBP/JPY, there is no point in analyzing pairs other than GBP/USD and USD/JPY
.

 There is no point in currency indexes, there is no point in cluster indicators.

 The value of a currency is always known in absolutely certain parrots -
USD
.

.


P.S.

However, the analysis of correlation statistics of different majors (e.g. where EUR/USD went, GBP/USD went) makes sense as some probabilistic characteristic. It has the same meaning as the analysis of EUR/USD together with RUB/USD, for example. I.e. the meaning is faintly observed.

Thoughts on some of the absurdity of multi-currency analysis.

Well, 1 cluster on the CDD "does not carry" full information about byte of information, clusters are good to use for ATS, it is difficult for human to process the information.

And multicurrency analysis is all about correlation, which applies to trade with a basket of instruments (but not the currency pairs) today Eur bounces to Buy, but Austrian is faster to Buy

Following the trend, long abandoned the search for what is called "want to be in the market all the time".

 
trol222:

I would like to know if only pairs containing euro are enough to get, say, the euro index, as you understand it, or not. Or is it possible to achieve a better anticipation by introducing other instruments besides currency pairs?

The currency pairs and euro metals are enough for me. I haven't tried to use others. Forex system is a closed one. I do not need anything else except currency pairs. Maybe, you can do metals as well.

AlexeyFX:

Is there any mathematical or logical justification for this statement? I don't have any coefficients, but I do have a prevarication.
Everything changes on a moment-to-moment basis. Including the ratios. I do not consider what you have received to be pre-emptive. Of course, you will get the signals in time, but there will be no real anticipation.

Try to make synthetic indexes out of your indexes. Will it run ahead of the natural pair? How often? Because it doesn't always have that effect. It's understandable, though. Semi-criminal trades are not always made.

I think that in order to get a true anticipation one should completely refuse from major pairs. Apply only exotics. Only it is not available anywhere in its entirety.

 
trol222:

Zhunko

Probably not currency pairs and metals to the euro, but currency pairs containing euro and metals whose value is expressed in euro.
Yes, I did.
 

Zhunko

Do you think it will always work while there is forex and can it be transferred to the stock market (I do not mean trading in the stock market doing analyses like grains move like the Eurobucks and we trade grains according to Eurobucks forecasts)?

 

About forex, yes.

Not an expert on the stock market, but I know of cases where people find instruments in the stock market strongly correlated with forex instruments and trade them based on currency pair analysis.

 
Zhunko:

Currency pairs and metals in euros are enough for me. I have not tried others. Forex is a closed-loop system. I do not need anything except currency pairs. Maybe you can do metals as well.

Everything changes on a moment-to-moment basis. Including the ratios. What you have received, I don't consider it a preemptive move. Of course, you will get the signals in time, but there will be no real anticipation.

Try to make synthetic indexes out of your indexes. Will it run ahead of the natural pair? How often? Because it doesn't always have that effect. It's understandable, though. Semi-criminal deals are not always made.

I think in order to get a real preemptive effect, we should abandon the major pairs altogether. Only exotics should be used. Only it is not available anywhere in its entirety.


You say you haven't tried it. If memory serves me correctly, you wrote that you use for the calculation not only pairs and metals, but some securities or something else.

Search is not working as usual so I would have searched this message ...

Don't take it as an accusation, just to be clear.

 
Zhunko:

About forex - yes.

I'm not an expert on the stock market, but I know cases where people find instruments of the stock market that are strongly correlated with forex instruments and trade based on analysis of currency pairs.


So either forex will soon be dead or it will move to another level..... as more and more people will soon come to "THIS"...

What do you think, if forex will move to another level where it will not work, what changes will await it - forex? (And the differences should be cardinal).

 
trol222:


You say you haven't tried it . If memory serves me right, you used to write that your trading is not just pairs and metals, but securities and so on.....

Search doesn't work as usual so I would have searched for this post...

Don't take it as an accusation, I'm just clarifying.

I wrote about special drawing rights. It's the same currency, only synthetic.

trol222:


So either forex will soon be over, or it will go to another level..... as more and more people will soon come to "THIS"...

What do you think, if forex goes to another level where it will not work, what changes await it - forex? (And the differences should be radical).

How many people do you know who have come to multicurrency analysis and who use it? It's hard for most people to understand. There will be no such thing...

I think large funds have more opportunities than we do. There are more resources and more productive machines. They calculate everything before we do :-))

Forex has changed several times, and how have we reacted? We have not noticed almost anything.

It's different up there. Forex has infinite liquidity. At some point, you will be influencing the market yourself. You will not be able to buy or sell anything, like in the kitchen DC. The market will sag from inept trades. You will not earn anything. Big deals take months to prepare. Media hype, acquaintances in governments... Without that, nothing will work.

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