Spread trading in Meta Trader - page 177
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I am duplicating my post from the women's greetings thread as it fits the theme:
Happy 8th of March to the women here! I hope that my gift will be the most rational one! As a modest gift, I'm placing specially prepared for this day sweet calendar spread SBK1 - SBN1!
Multiyear seasonal lines are built using the formula (SBK1 - SBN1)*100, in other words, the scale on the right has dimension in "whole" points.
With today's entry (sugar trading opens in 30 minutes) and the subsequent holding of positions till about the end of March - the expected profit is +200/250 points!
This can be clearly seen on the seasonal charts. For better visibility for the lovely ladies I have made two charts:
With 1-2-3 year price lines and with 5-8-12 year lines.
So, sell SBK1 - buy SBN1 (both contracts are available in Broco's mt4 for example!):
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So as not to offend the men here, I'm posting a promising calendar spread for them as well. For cattle(don't take the hint!).
From now on you may enter BUY LCJ1 - SELL LCM1.
It is better to enter in the evening, in the midst of American session trading, when the asc-bid spread for these instruments will be the lowest:
Thank you. Commodity spreads have failed. Fuel oil, contrary to the seasonality of the second half of March, fell strongly against oil and petrol...
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Looks like a good entry in the precious metals spreads. Platinum-Palladium, - buying the spread from April 1st to the 8th
1-2-3-4-5 seasonal lines are built for position size ratio:
PLN1-PAM1=4^3.
It is better to open positions in the middle of the American session to minimize losses on palladium.
Or open on palladium with a limit order first (in mt4 B.)
Thank you. Commodity spreads have failed. Fuel oil, contrary to the seasonality of the second half of March, fell strongly against oil and gasoline...
Are you planning to participate in the new competition? Seasonal spreads, as I understand it, are just the result of generalised statistics, so it is important how many years they have been collected. What period are the statistics you based them on, if that's not a secret?
Yes, I plan to.
Up to 15 (1-3-5-10-15) I usually build seasonal charts.
By the way the spreads I posted above (March 8) .
Profit current on sugar spread turned out to be less than planned by about 3 times. India has let the sugar export ban come down hard.
And on the horn spread LEJ1-LEM1 - now there is even a good accumulation of current profits:
Under 15 (1-3-5-10-15) I usually build seasonal charts.
No. The constant seasonal movements in commodities and equities are not just due to pure statistics!
But quite predictable fundamental and seasonal factors.
For example, the ZSK1-ZMK1 spread:
Spring is now in full swing and the demand for gasoline is starting to prevail over the need for "heating oil".
This assertion is supported by the multi-year seasonal trend graph for gasoline and heating oil:
As early as Monday, it is possible to consider buying this spread before the first of May.
This spread works very well seasonally - buy XRB - sell HO = 1:1 !
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Today we have a news release on US commodity inventories. At 18:30 Moscow time.
For a triple entry before the news we should already assess the current situation in the commodity markets.
First look at the US Petroleum Institute data released tonight:
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00:30 USA
API crude stocks - +4.911mb
00:30 USA
API distillate stocks - +1.525mb
00:30 USA
API gasoline stocks - -2.088mb
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It's pretty obvious - gasoline 'rules' - but heating oil and crude stocks are up pretty badly.
Now let's see the industry (commodities) analysts' forecast from EIA
18:30 USA
Crude stocks according to EIA - +0.8mb
18:30 USA
Distillate stocks according to EIA - +0.1mb
18:30 USA
Gasoline stocks according to EIA - -1.1mb
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You might notice that by and large the ratio of figures from API & EIA instruments is consistent with each other.
Thus, it would make sense to buy two sizes of gasoline against the duo (oil + fuel oil) before the news comes out or already now.
However, I did it last night - before the release of the API data - I entered like this:
buy XRBM1 - (sell HOM1 + sell CLM1) = 3 ^ 2^ 1
And now, we wait...