is this EA back test results any good?

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Bars in test 719373
Ticks modelled 21249120
Modelling quality 25.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 3403.26
Gross profit 3914.12
Gross loss -510.85
Profit factor 7.66
Expected payoff 17.02
Absolute drawdown 380.61
Maximal drawdown 1460.06 (12.12%)
Relative drawdown 12.12% (1460.06)
Total trades 200
Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)
Long positions (won %) 200 (99.50%)
Profit trades (% of total) 199 (99.50%)
Loss trades (% of total) 1 (0.50%)
Largest
profit trade 281.41
loss trade -510.85
Average
profit trade 19.67
loss trade -510.85
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 199 (3914.12)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 1 (-510.85)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 3914.12 (199)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -510.85 (1)
Average
consecutive wins 199

consecutive losses 1


The last trade didn't finish because it was closed by the tester (from what I could tell)


 

This is a really fantastic backtest result, almost perfection. That last bit of sharp drop can be ignored, as it's mostly like due to close at stop.

However, how this relates to forward or live trading is unknown.

 

This is a long only strategy? how does it behave in a bearish market period?

Could be a no stoploss strategy or based on over optimized parameters, in conclusion, not enough information

 
blogzr3:

This is a really fantastic backtest result, almost perfection. That last bit of sharp drop can be ignored, as it's mostly like due to close at stop.

However, how this relates to forward or live trading is unknown.


yes, is fantastic looking.

And in live account eating all your balance. No losses all time (except the last one) means orders without SL, or not?

Stopout is waiting you :-)

 
Too good to be true. It is probably based on past values.
 

well I think it is too good to be true as well that is why I am asking. I am currently going through the buys at the moment to see what is REALLY happening.

you are right there is no stop loss but I do close the orders by code so it is dangerous - I bet my code isn't bulletproof.

If all pans out I will try it for real on a small account $1000 is all I am prepared to risk and I don't hold my hopes too high as there is a lot of people out there trying to do exactly what I am trying.

I will post again in the next couple of day to let everyone know if it is a flop or not... please don't get your hopes up too high because chances are that it will have something wrong with it.

 

You don't have to do anything with real money yet, unless you want to.

You can just put it on forward test, and see what happens.

 

Concerns are the very low modelling quality and the rather high drawdown relative to profit factor

You never know just how much spread variations are going to affect a scalper and... whether long term ranging or downtrends will affect this long-only system...

Also, the market is hugely pitchy at the moment, with it being a quarter end and the Greek/Euro thing going on - not a time to lauch a new boat on real money waters!

-BB-

 

> ...no stop loss but I do close the orders by code...

Tell me you have 'reliable order' handling on this bit at least, i.e. retry on error?

-BB-

 

The only two strategies I know that can produce an almost linear up-slope backtest are scalping and Mr. Martingale, which have their own characteristics which does not seem to be present in this backtest.

What sort of strategy might this be?

 
BarrowBoy:

Concerns are the very low modelling quality and the rather high drawdown relative to profit factor

-BB-


@-BB-, This one caught my eye. He has a draw-down of 12.12% and Profit factor 7.66. What #'s for dd & pf would be good to you? (note) He could reduce the draw-down by simply running it with fixed lots or adding more starting deposit or turning the ea off at trade# 199.

What I would like to know is what's the length of the back-test. 3-Months, 1-Year, 10-Years?

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