Need help figuring out the news..

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So at 7am for me (right now 15:00GMT) something happens, this is the second time its happening, and I'm pretty sure its no coincidence.

Does anyone know of any big news reportings at this time? The euro just shot up again and did the exact same thing yesterday at the same time.

Let me know, this could be another breakout system in progress

Thanks

 

sidLet me explain this briefly:

1. There has been too many bad news in US recently like Houricane Katrina hitting New Orleans which greatly destroy majority of the city and halt a great deal of oil production and distribution.

2. These events give off a large impact on various market like stock exchange and oil price. Ok, here we go, the oil price is reversely related to USD. That means if oil price up, USD will be down, because as a rule of thumb USA is kinda sort of oil these days.

3. On the other hand nothing bad is happening in europe, so traders don't worry that EUR could be down. This creates a support for EUR while USD is greatly weaken.

4. Canada has reserved a surplus amount of oil that could fuel the whole USA population for up to a century. While USD is weaken, some big traders might short USDCAD, for the reason that they expect some gain from CAD of because of the country's oil export.

5. At 15:00 GMT, it is generally the second breakout wave of US session. Right when US markets open, feared traders and corporations start selling a great of amount of stocks and hedge USD by shorting. This trading force is like tsunami's, no body can stop it.

This is a little secret of my trading system on fundamental side.

 

Generally speaking, Forex is a tug-of-war game between sellers and buyers. If one side is stronger, they'll win. Likewise, today there are very few people at USD side, most of traders join EUR, CAD or CHF side, so guess which side lost? Yeah it's USD.

There're not many interventions from central banks these days, so traders can play the tug-of-war game at almost free will. I think this game has just only started, so this bullish EURUSD will happen again tomorrow. Next week, the game will start over, market will be calm; thus, we traders have to rethink which side should we join.

 

Other major news that fuel the move yesterday were EUR interest rate announcement, EU GDP (July), and US ISM Survey.

And, right now you can see Europe Session is moving EURUSD up. At 12:30 GMT, there should be another major move when US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate data come out.

 

Gazuz. Go to https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/etrading/marketwatch/calendars/

check em out. There is an event calendar, economic and itnerest rates calendar. They are pretty nice.

 

Hey again,

first of all scorpion thank you VERY much you've been a big help. I wasn't sure exactly if it was the start and end of the day that affected it then the rest was on the trader's shoulders.

Anyways the follow up now is does anyone know a sort of legend for all this? I don't really understand the economical calendar; by that I mean what is forecasting and prior? Does that mean it predicts to have a positive affect on the market for the country it is in? For example here we see :

02/09/2005 12:30 US August Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%

would this most likely bring the market up a bit at that time? does the market usually go down when the prior/forecasting are a negative number?

Thanks

 

Okay. The Foreccast - is the number that is awaited by the majority of analytics , or ( and agencies ) , the prior number is the number that was in the past.

In your (Gazuz ) case no change is expected, so if it will be like that , there will be no affect on the market. But if for example the official number will be 7 instead of 5 ( which was awaited ) it would mean that the situation is worser that expected, and people start rapidly closing long positions on USD , and opening short. If the number will be for example 3 instead of 5 , the situation will be right the opposite. You should understand the meaning of every event. For Dukascopy calendars, you can click on most of the economic calendar lines, and there will be an explanation for it. Just click on the uneploynment rate, and you can read about its influence.

Official numbers are not posted in most of the calendarts ( becouse it is a lot of work, tracking down all the news and posting them ) , they can be taken from news sites, like https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.bloombers.com or https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.forexnews.com .

So here is a table translated from one russian book i have about fundamental analysis. It shows you how the prior ,forecast and official numbers are influencing the market.

First 3 positions of the table are comparing just the forecast and the oficial numbers, the last 2 also look at the prior numbers.

Files:
Fundamentals_table.png  21 kb
 

There are also economic events that effect the market more then others. I have tables for them, maybe if i have time later, i will post them.

 

For news, my favourite is /go?link=https://www.dailyfx.com > click 'Calender' > click 'Global Economic Calender for ..... ' link on top left hand side > right click on 'Click here to print PDF File' and download the PDF file.

I keep the weekly PDF open for referral on timing for trades.

Rastarr

 

Forgot one. This one is nice b/c it gives you a full month. Most just give a week.

https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/economic_calendar/ec.pdf

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