Holy grail exists? - page 2
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I am relatively new to the trading and I am beginning to understand this whole setup. No matter whether you call holy grail or black hole, the answer to the question of does it exist, is yes and no. It is no, if you spend countless hours in your computer to arrive at the most complex theory of price movements. On the other hand, it is yes, even if your theory is not robust but you succeed in institutionalizing it.
'black hole' ... that is cool analogy phy!
I know a dude that only uses price action on candle charts - 100% unpopulated charts... only the candles - full stop.
He is a super efficient prognosticator and achieves close to 90% trade decision correctness - with I might add, boring monotonous regularity week in - week out.
(have heard it said that real trading is just that... boring, why? cause all you do is crank the damn handle and money come out BUT... gotta keep cranking else it stops!
this is also why imho, many people work for others because they are told what to do - for them it gives purpose/meaning... no matter how trivial the task, they gotta keep busy etc)
Let's be honest, looking constantly at price charts is not exactly far removed from the watching of paint dry - lol...
He 'reads' runtime/live price action/candle formation - is simply amazing how he does it.
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He had what can be called an epiphany after studying price charts only, over many months and over 12hrs per day... solid!
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No DSP, no physics... just keen observation and good 'ol common sense and the complete understanding that was possible to prognosticate via price action alone.
am not talking history, only live realtime price action
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Go figure that then...
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btw - I have tried to best of my powers to emulate but something just not click YET... :o))
so... I use, like most, coding - to find the answer - maybe one day though the lightbulb turns on !
At such a time I too will become "a black hole"...
How do you know you will actually be able to create something that works, BB? There are entire sites (strategy builder) dedicated to people trying to find a consistently profitable EA. You have 20 years of programming experience, but so what? How much trading experience do you have? Do you have any high level physics training? How about digital signal processing experience? It takes a lot more than good programming knowledge to create a profitable EA. Good luck, though.
Also a systems & business analyst - I have a nose for systems that are struggling...
I have two years in manual trading & broke even!
Enough to know that most successful traders are useless at programming & vice versa - different skill-sets.
I have to bring best of both together, draw on other peoples experiences and realise that most EA programmers are barking up the wrong tree :(
You must have a viable system first, then code it up.
High level physics? No - but then most successful traders dont?
Digital signal processing experience? Some! And toooo much data-streaming experience.
The EA's are already working, when they've had enough of a run on my accounts (3 months and a minimum of 100 trades), I will let out one or two for limited trial periods, so you can see what is possible.
Please note - the biggest earning EA is co-authored with Greezly, the 10th place holder in last years championship - a seriously clever dude!
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What I do have is ingenuity and sheer, utter, bloody determination
I think its 85 systems and 430+ individual EA's I have now coded up - yes I could be rubbish at this but... time will tell whether the 8 successful ones will survive!
What I have learned is that, sadly, most EA's are doomed to fail because of...
Ah - think its time for a cup of tea :)
8 out of 515? Too much! 0.3%*515 ~ 2 EAs at most...
The law of three sigmas (three standard deviations) holds here: the probability of the EA to be successful is of the order that the standard normal distributed variable N(0,1) is more than 3 by absolute value :)